Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Gusington]

There are a few new graphic videos on YouTube that show dozens if not hundreds of people (I am not sure if civilian or military) killed in 'humanitarian escape corridors' outside of eastern Ukrainian cities. As said above, this is not good for the Russian troops, who will pay the price.

Stories of Ukrainians massacring Russian prisoners are already emerging.

[bobarossa]

According to this article about 40% of Russia's 600 billion in currency reserves are held in the US, UK, France, Germany, and Japan. 
https://www.statista.com/chart/26940/russian-central-bank-foreign-currency-and-gold-reserves-by-holder/
I would like to see these countries seize these assets (they're already frozen) for use in rebuilding the Ukraine and restitution to surviving families there.  We could tell the Russians that they would get some portion of this money back if they leave the Ukraine with the amount diminishing for each day they remain there. 

Of course that could encourage the Ukrainains to keep the Russians fighting so they can eat more the pie.  Note that Russia and China only hold 35% of the reserves so other countries could join in on the bonanza.

[Skoop]

"As I am looking at the newly released WEGO Stalingrad I wonder if in 80 years there will be a WEGO Battle of Mariupol.
While I am dismayed by the war and the tragic loss of life and humanitarian crisis and war crimes - the inner war nerd in me is looking forward to all the books, games and analysis.
Con"

I'm gaming it now with combat mission black sea.  I had to adjust the Russians to all green and Ukrainians to veteran.  I also had to give the Ukrainians javelins, but the results have been pretty spot on.

Arma has lots of Ukraine war mods and missions.

I have even been using steel beasts to sim the Ukraine war, it's actually been the best one so far.

[FarAway Sooner]

Who takes weapons & supplies from western borders into Ukraine & how is this achieved?  How do Ukrainians get training for these weapons?

The weapons being shipped to Ukraine are primarily loaded into convoys assembled near the Eastern border of Poland and driven by Ukrainian drivers into Western Ukraine.  They arrive at towns like Lviv, and are then broken up into dispatch to Ukrainian units throughout Ukraine.

Most of the weapons being shipped into Ukraine are leftover Russian weapons held in former Warsaw Pact countries who are now NATO members.  So training needs are greatly reduced.  This is especially true for armor, vehicle-borne SAMs, and ammunition of all types, I think.  The anti-tank weapons have been a mix of older Soviet surplus stocks and American-made Stinger SAMs and Javelin anti-tank missile, along with the NLAWs mentioned in Gus' video above.  Those weapons typically require one and two-man crews and are mostly point-and-shoot weapons, so while some training is needed, it's not like they need to train them to fly F-18s or operate a nuclear submarine.

I've read reports that Americans (and presumably other NATO allies) are training some Ukrainian troops in Poland.  Details around what weapon systems they are being trained in are vague.  If I had to guess, they're probably embracing a "train the trainer" role for those lighter weapons.

I doubt that the US military has any folks actively serving in combat roles in Ukraine.  But I'd be astonished if we don't have some "non-sanctioned folks" (probably some combination of CIA operatives and US-trained mercs working at places like Blackwater) participating in Ukraine, probably helping to expedite the flood of intelligence being supplied by US assets outside Ukraine (or in orbit above Ukraine), gathering intelligence, and perhaps assisting in drone attacks as well. 

Yet we are apparently gobsmacked that Biden says a regime change in Russia is in order.

I think people are more gobsmacked that Biden said it, as opposed to that he's thinking it.  We're all thinking it.  But when a tyrant is losing a conventional war, he has stopped acting rationally, and he's still got the ability to launch 3,000 nuclear warheads at the rest of the world, talking about "regime change" seems tactically unwise.

[Dammit Carl!]

Re: Seeming Russian behavior

Deaths by indiscriminate shelling/bombing is one thing that is inescapable in warfare, but purposeful elimination of people, namely civilians, face-to-face smacks of an anger or resentment that was there for a while (i.e. the Nazi "untermensch," belief)**.  In the Nazis' case, wasn't it worked upon for years by management prior to Barbarossa?  I'm not the brightest of boys by any stretch, but going from zero to war crimes in such a short amount of time by the Russians against their Slavic brethren is a hard one to square for me.

** = Yes, I figure there is more than a little anger and resentment by the Russian rank and file at this point, so striking out against whoever doesn't necessarily imply an already deep-seated hatred that is being acted upon.  More like "heat of the moment," anger, methinks, and a desire for some kind of payback to a country that just iced your battle buddy(s).

Also curious if the Wagner boys will be similarly fed into the woodchipper or given freer reign to operate.  And where are those Night Wolves?

[Staggerwing]

And where are those Night Wolves?

Probably hiding in some basement biker bar ghosting Putin's phone calls

[FarAway Sooner]

One other thing I'm noticing:  It sounds like Russians tank crews are learning the same lessons that their German counterparts learned in 1944, albeit for a different reason.  Even if tanks are pretty likely to survive a direct attack (whether by Allied aircraft in WWII or by NLAWs or Russian-made anti-tank missiles in Ukraine), their support elements aren't. 

Looking at the casualty counts of verified Russian vehicle kills in the video Gus posted recently, it looks like tanks are less than 1/3 of the total vehicle casualties.  IFVs and AFVs seem to be dying at the same rates.  So not only are the Russian tanks struggling with Javelins, but their support elements are being decimated by NLAWs and Russian anti-tank missiles. 

Much is made of the German tardiness in releasing armored columns as D-Day started.  Less attention is given to the fact that German tanks released in the first day or two of D-Day often made it into the fight.  But they showed up in the combat zone without fuel, spare ammunition, or infantry support.  That made it easy for Allied anti-tank weapons to slow them down in the first few days of fighting.

The video Gus provided that shows the composition of the Russian Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) is interesting.  200 infantry sounds like a lean infantry count for a battle group that is also comprised of 10 tanks and 33 IFVs/AFVs.  That's particularly true if they are expected to move through country where small squads can fire NLAWs from almost a kilometer away or Javelins from a few kilometers away.

I've read reports that the Ukrainians have had great success in using small-unit tactics to disrupt Russian attacks.  While that makes lots of sense, I wonder whether that will be as effective in offensive operations as it has been defensively?

[Dammit Carl!]

And where are those Night Wolves?

Probably hiding in some basement biker bar ghosting Putin's phone calls

;D

I sure as hell would too.

[Gusington]

Are you a Night Wolf?

[Dammit Carl!]

Are you a Night Wolf?

More like Mid-day Dachsund, if anything.

[Gusington]

 

[Sir Slash]

I used to be a Night Wolf. But nowdays my food bowl's on the porch, so that's where I stay. 

[JudgeDredd]

Putin feels encroached upon by NATO and 'the West' led by the US. I know you know that already. Buried beneath the war crimes, the whole metaphysical oddity and all the bloodshed, Putin has made it clear that he thinks he has been wronged and betrayed by the West since the end of the Cold War. There are similarities to Russia now and Germany post WWI...even if genuine issues are being trumped up and threats exaggerrated ridiculously.

  Right.  I see the context.  What I don't get is how whatever the Russians are doing in Ukraine is supposed to help Russia with whatever its actual problems are.  I mean I guess I get that the Russians
feel bad about things, but I don't see how blowing up Ukraine makes them feel any better.  Or to put it another way, if the Russian problem is that they feel "wronged" -- I'm still not sure how blowing up
Ukraine makes them feel less "wronged."  Or to put it another way: did Russia have any real actual problem that blowing up the Ukraine might solve?  The question here revolves around "real problem"
and a "realistic" solution.  If there was no real problem (and I think that is the case -- there was no real problem) then there is no real solution.  I think the actual Russian problem is not one that
blowing up Ukraine can solve: their problem is that their social world has seriously departed from any significant connection with reality.  I think much
of what we see as their BS is not BS in the usual sense because that really is what their version of reality is.  Sure, it happens to coinside with BS and that's the Russian problem in a nutshell
and blowing up Ukraine does not save them from their own BS.

Argentina 1982

30,000 people gone missing. Food shortages. Wage problems. High inflation. "Hey - lets take back these wee islands and make the country happy again and forget what a bunch of murdering dickheads we are"

Sometimes, there's simply no accounting for decisions made by dictators.

[planetbrain]

Sorry stuffed up quotes , will try again

[planetbrain]

Who takes weapons & supplies from western borders into Ukraine & how is this achieved?  How do Ukrainians get training for these weapons?

The weapons being shipped to Ukraine are primarily loaded into convoys assembled near the Eastern border of Poland and driven by Ukrainian drivers into Western Ukraine.  They arrive at towns like Lviv, and are then broken up into dispatch to Ukrainian units throughout Ukraine.

Most of the weapons being shipped into Ukraine are leftover Russian weapons held in former Warsaw Pact countries who are now NATO members.  So training needs are greatly reduced.  This is especially true for armor, vehicle-borne SAMs, and ammunition of all types, I think.  The anti-tank weapons have been a mix of older Soviet surplus stocks and American-made Stinger SAMs and Javelin anti-tank missile, along with the NLAWs mentioned in Gus' video above.  Those weapons typically require one and two-man crews and are mostly point-and-shoot weapons, so while some training is needed, it's not like they need to train them to fly F-18s or operate a nuclear submarine.

I've read reports that Americans (and presumably other NATO allies) are training some Ukrainian troops in Poland.  Details around what weapon systems they are being trained in are vague.  If I had to guess, they're probably embracing a "train the trainer" role for those lighter weapons.

I doubt that the US military has any folks actively serving in combat roles in Ukraine.  But I'd be astonished if we don't have some "non-sanctioned folks" (probably some combination of CIA operatives and US-trained mercs working at places like Blackwater) participating in Ukraine, probably helping to expedite the flood of intelligence being supplied by US assets outside Ukraine (or in orbit above Ukraine), gathering intelligence, and perhaps assisting in drone attacks as well. 

Yet we are apparently gobsmacked that Biden says a regime change in Russia is in order.

I think people are more gobsmacked that Biden said it, as opposed to that he's thinking it.  We're all thinking it.  But when a tyrant is losing a conventional war, he has stopped acting rationally, and he's still got the ability to launch 3,000 nuclear warheads at the rest of the world, talking about "regime change" seems tactically unwise.

Thanks.
I did think though that Ukraine is getting a lot more modern stuff than just leftover cold war.
As to Biden saying something so obviously factual, I think the reactions really silly, regardless of the politics, considering Putin has actually threatened the use of nukes. Surely that threat is far worse than Biden's quip.
Imagine meeting Putin at, say, a G20 summit or whatever & having to remain civil.