Russia's War Against Ukraine

[al_infierno]

Reports of a massacre and mass graves in the liberated town of Bucha:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/03/eu-leaders-condemn-killing-of-unarmed-civilians-in-bucha-and-kyiv

[Pete Dero]

Reports of a massacre and mass graves in the liberated town of Bucha:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/03/eu-leaders-condemn-killing-of-unarmed-civilians-in-bucha-and-kyiv

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/04/russia-seeks-un-security-council-meeting-on-bucha-ukraine-a77194
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220404-live-russia-denies-allegations-seeks-un-security-council-meet-on-bucha

Russia's deputy ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy to the United Nations 'In the light of heinous provocation of Ukrainian radicals in Bucha Russia requested a meeting of UN Security Council on Monday April 4 '

If you thought they couldn't be more hypocritical, they take it a few steps further. 

[MengJiao]

Re: Seeming Russian behavior

  The Russians are leaving Sumy?  What's so odd about that is that:
1) I thought they took it on day 1 (but apparently never did)
2) Isn't that way east and aren't the Russians supposed to be overrunning the the eastern part of Ukraine?
2.5) "Actively withdrawing" ?  Instead of sort of vaguely shooting and murdering in all directions and so on?
3) I'm so confused


Russian forces are "actively withdrawing" from Sumy region, governor says
From CNN's Aliza Kassim

Russian forces are "actively withdrawing" from the Sumy Oblast in northeastern Ukraine, according to the regional governor, and taking their equipment with them.

Last week saw an influx of Russian troops between Bilopillya and Konotop — located to the northwest of the city of Sumy — where they "were shooting indiscriminately and terrorizing the population," said Dmytro Zhyvytsky, head of the regional administration in the Sumy region, on his Telegram channel on Sunday.

"Our troops were chasing them out of the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions and inflicting losses, Konotop area is not 100% free of the Russians. The Ukrainians are gradually finishing them off," Zhyvytsky said.
Sumy region lies 30 miles (48 kilometers) from the border with Russia and was one of the first cities to have been attacked as part of the Russian invasion.

The city of Sumy is where close to 1,700 students were forced to hide in their hostels as the invasion began.

[JasonPratt]

The video Gus provided that shows the composition of the Russian Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) is interesting.  200 infantry sounds like a lean infantry count for a battle group that is also comprised of 10 tanks and 33 IFVs/AFVs.  That's particularly true if they are expected to move through country where small squads can fire NLAWs from almost a kilometer away or Javelins from a few kilometers away.

If I recall correctly, by 1942, Soviet practical experience corrected their original estimate of 40+ troops per tank, to somewhere around 85 troops per tank (spread among c&c, logistic support, direct/indirect arty support, and infantry support including scouting etc.)

Modern tech might have shortened or lengthened that tail, and the scales certainly aren't the same -- a tank platoon or company might be expected to be more infantry lean than an armored division -- but yeah that looks rather lean. But maybe flank and recon duties are supposed to be handled by other groups in close coordination with the BTG? If so, then part of the failure would be in c&c coordination between the groups (which matches some other things we've heard). What's the troop composition of an equivalent group of tanks in various modern western armies?

[MengJiao]

Re: Seeming Russian behavior

Okay so Russia threatened Finland and Sweden (and everybody else on the planet but...)

Russian officials have warned of potential retaliation, in the form of military and political consequences, should Finland and Sweden join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

But since the real Russian message seems to be "Join NATO or die", it seems the Finns are going to try to joing NATO while the Russians are busy killing everybody in Ukraine.



  Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said Saturday that the country will make a decision on applying for NATO membership by the end of spring, because "Russia is not the neighbor we thought it was."

Finland's relations with Russia have changed in an "irreversible" way, said Marin, reversing course on earlier remarks that it would be "very unlikely" that Finland would apply for membership with the military alliance during her current term of office.

Russian officials have warned of potential retaliation, in the form of military and political consequences, should Finland and Sweden join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Sergei Belyaev, director of the Second European Department of Russia's Foreign Ministry, told Russia's state-run news agency Interfax that Finland and Sweden not joining NATO is "an important factor in ensuring security and stability in northern Europe."



Oh the irony...somehow the Russians are worried about important factors in ensuring stability in northern Europe, but it seems like joining NATO is a lot safer for Finland than waiting for the Russians to
finish killing everybody in Ukraine.

[jamus34]

Yeah the irony seems lost on me too. Threatening countries to not join an alliance to protect themselves from foreign aggression while actively invading a sovereign country.

[JasonPratt]

Starting to wonder how the Mannerheim Line currently looks...

Meanwhile the US strikes at the oligarchs! -- First yacht seized (The EU has gotten dozens already.)

[al_infierno]

I forget if this was already discussed in this thread, but what exactly is the plan turning these yachts back into cash?  It's not like there are a ton of buyers on the market for a $120 million customized superyacht.

[Jarhead0331]

I forget if this was already discussed in this thread, but what exactly is the plan turning these yachts back into cash?  It's not like there are a ton of buyers on the market for a $120 million customized superyacht.

They may be sold at judicial auction in which case they may be sold to the highest bidder, which may or may not be for FMV.

[JasonPratt]

Even if they don't sell the yachts, the purpose is to hit the oligarchs in their self-importance: that's cash-value now totally wasted by them.

Heck, I'd make a damn bonfire of their vanities, so to speak.  >:D Pile them in a deserted area and have a free-fire exhibition, broadcast live around the world. Several piles! -- this pile gets hellfired and FFAR'd by Apaches, this pile gets glassed by BUFFs, this pile gets Paladin'd, this pile gets Abram'd... Open the floor for requests!

Imagine the communists around the world trying to decide whether to cheer for that or not!  :DD \m/

[Jarhead0331]

It's not entirely clear to me what kind of authority, power, control or influence these so called "oligarchs" wield with Putin and within the power centers of Russian government. It seems that there is a possibility that this is not entirely unlike a foreign power seizing assets of Jeff Bezos because of his influence over Joe Biden to pressure a change in policy. Not sure I see this as being impactful or morally justified.

[JasonPratt]

Well, they're more like the Russian mafia than Jeff Bezos -- being the Russian mafia -- which I assume is the main legal justification for the raids. But I don't know the details. Somewhere far upthread I posted a video I had found tracing Putin's past history with the mafia oligarchs and how that related to his current position.

I do know the theory is that doing this will provoke the mafia to clean house and set up someone else to do their dirty work (at least).

[Jarhead0331]

Well, they're more like the Russian mafia than Jeff Bezos -- being the Russian mafia -- which I assume is the main legal justification for the raids. But I don't know the details. Somewhere far upthread I posted a video I had found tracing Putin's past history with the mafia oligarchs and how that related to his current position.

I do know the theory is that doing this will provoke the mafia to clean house and set up someone else to do their dirty work (at least).

Where have you seen any information linking the Russian oligarchs that are being targeted by western sanctions to organized crime or the Russian mafia? They are all business or technology billionaires who made their fortunes during the Gorbachev reform era or during Yeltsin's presidency. I'm sure there is some nominal contact with the Russian underworld, but these guys have so much wealth (controlling nearly 35% of Russian money) that they have no need to be bothered with criminals.

The mafia, to the extent it is relevant, exists outside the state system and therefore cannot be targeted effectively by sanctions.

The business and tech oligarchs who are being sanctioned have much much more in common with Bezos, Zuckerberg, Musk, et al. than any member of the Russian mafia. They are very much public figures who own very large multi-national corporations.

[al_infierno]

Well, they're more like the Russian mafia than Jeff Bezos -- being the Russian mafia -- which I assume is the main legal justification for the raids. But I don't know the details. Somewhere far upthread I posted a video I had found tracing Putin's past history with the mafia oligarchs and how that related to his current position.

I do know the theory is that doing this will provoke the mafia to clean house and set up someone else to do their dirty work (at least).

Where have you seen any information linking the Russian oligarchs that are being targeted by western sanctions to organized crime or the Russian mafia? They are all business or technology billionaires who made their fortunes during the Gorbachev reform era or during Yeltsin's presidency. I'm sure there is some nominal contact with the Russian underworld, but these guys have so much wealth (controlling nearly 35% of Russian money) that they have no need to be bothered with criminals.

The mafia, to the extent it is relevant, exists outside the state system and therefore cannot be targeted effectively by sanctions.

The business and tech oligarchs who are being sanctioned have much much more in common with Bezos, Zuckerberg, Musk, et al. than any member of the Russian mafia. They are very much public figures who own very large multi-national corporations.

I'm not sure about them literally being tied with an underground mafia, but I think he means they operate like a mafia, in the sense of being involved in illegal rackets and having a "kick up/skim" system where the guys higher in the food chain skim from the people beneath them, leading up to Putin as sort of the Overboss/Godfather type figure who gets the lion's share of the organization's skims.  From what I've read, Jason is not off-base by suggesting the organization of Putin and his oligarchs is basically the biggest Russian Mafia.  I also understand that they do this in a much more blatant and "open secret" manner which would bring down RICO charges in the United States these days if attempted by the likes of Bezos, Zuckerberg, and Musk, again hence the "Mafia" connection.

[GDS_Starfury]

I forget if this was already discussed in this thread, but what exactly is the plan turning these yachts back into cash?  It's not like there are a ton of buyers on the market for a $120 million customized superyacht.

They may be sold at judicial auction in which case they may be sold to the highest bidder, which may or may not be for FMV.

NATO should use them all for target practice in a well publicised sinkex.