Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Gusington]

^ ;D

[FarAway Sooner]

Meanwhile the US strikes at the oligarchs! -- First yacht seized (The EU has gotten dozens already.)

Ukraine should just issue "letters of marque" that would clear the oceans of yachts pretty quickly...along with anything flying a Russian flag... The Russian navy would object...but somehow I don't see them as being ready to split up and run down a bunch of privateers.

I know the US Constitution gives Congress the power to issue them...and I believe the last time it was used was WWII...  But there are probably more modern treaties banning them... still would be nice to see.

Although the Constitution enumerates Letters of Marque as an exclusive power of congress, Letters of Marque and Reprisal were abolished by the Treaty of Paris in the 1850s.

Just read that in February of 2022, House bill H.R. 6869 was introduced, and if passed would "[authorize] the President to issue letters of marque and reprisal" in relation to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. How do you like that?

If we signed a Treaty, and the US Senate ratified it, are we not bound by the terms of said treaty?  I guess we could break the treaty, but my sense is that we just send covert CIA operatives in to blow stuff up and don't screw around with the letters of marque any more.

[GDS_Starfury]

interesting:
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/april/unleash-privateers

and JH, at this point I really dont care how many russians suffer under sanctions or how many oligarchs lose their money and their heads.
its been a shitstain upon the world for 100 years and needs to be torn apart and rebuilt.

[Sir Slash]

Let Loose the Groghead Navy I say! I volunteer as Quartermaster of the Rum Ration.  :arr:

[MengJiao]

Meanwhile the US strikes at the oligarchs! -- First yacht seized (The EU has gotten dozens already.)

Ukraine should just issue "letters of marque" that would clear the oceans of yachts pretty quickly...along with anything flying a Russian flag... The Russian navy would object...but somehow I don't see them as being ready to split up and run down a bunch of privateers.

I know the US Constitution gives Congress the power to issue them...and I believe the last time it was used was WWII...  But there are probably more modern treaties banning them... still would be nice to see.

Although the Constitution enumerates Letters of Marque as an exclusive power of congress, Letters of Marque and Reprisal were abolished by the Treaty of Paris in the 1850s.

Just read that in February of 2022, House bill H.R. 6869 was introduced, and if passed would "[authorize] the President to issue letters of marque and reprisal" in relation to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. How do you like that?

If we signed a Treaty, and the US Senate ratified it, are we not bound by the terms of said treaty?  I guess we could break the treaty, but my sense is that we just send covert CIA operatives in to blow stuff up and don't screw around with the letters of marque any more.

We aren't formally a party, but we have formally declared (twice 1861 and 1898) that we will respect that declaration (part of the treaties that ended the Crimean War).  There was no Senate ratification
but the declaration has been respected by the US for a long time.

[Pete Dero]

https://twitter.com/olgarithmic/status/1511277210493399045

My grandmother in Ukraine has dementia. Every morning she wakes up, turns on the TV and finds out war has begun. Mortified, she packs her bag and tries to evacuate the house. She's been in this never-ending loop for 41 days straight.

[steve58]

Czech Republic sending some heavy armor to Ukraine

[Gusington]

So are the Czechs sending those tanks outside of NATO to avoid a larger war?

[MengJiao]

So are the Czechs sending those tanks outside of NATO to avoid a larger war?

  Or maybe because the larger war is here already and it might go on for years.  Apparently, NATO says Finland and Sweden can join if they want to and the Russians
have said they will do something if that happens. Of course since Russia is already doing something in Ukraine, this might be a good time to ship all surplus Cold War
stuff to Ukraine and have everybody join NATO and see what
happens.  Apparently it might take years for Russia to kill everyone in Ukraine, so
why not join NATO now while they are busy in Ukraine?  They might not get to Finland until after they kill everyone in Moldovia, which might take a while.
The Czech Republic might be pretty far down on the list (it seems like the Russians would have to kill everybody in Sloviania or Slovokia or Poland or Estonia
and or Latvia and or Lithuania first.  But who's counting?  Might take decades.)

[Gusington]

I saw too recent reports of Poland sending those much discussed MiGs...just wondering how.

[Con]

The key here is apart from Russian nuclear options (which based on their conventional missile failure rate) might be as low as only 40% effective.  Approx. 90% of all Russian military power is now concentrated in what remains of the invasion in Eastern Ukraine.

The BTGs that were withdrawn from the Northern part of the invasion are essentially combat ineffective (leading to the old joke - What do you call a Russian Tank Brigade returning from Ukraine - An infantry Platoon)
Their war material reserves of heavy equipment have been shown to be woefully poorly maintained and in many cases are only able to muster 10-20% of the stored tanks and apcs into something resembling operational ready
Their best trained and supplied divisions (the VDV) have been smashed in operations that looks like it was planned by my 10 year old.
Reservists are poorly trained, even more poorly motivated
Army morale is tenuous at best with Fragging incidents, mutinies and defections (helicopter pilot leaving for Ukraine) on the rise
Their logistics are shot to hell (when they were at their best they couldn't push 60 miles beyond their rail bridgeheads)and since the loss of so many trucks they ar now using civilian trucks leading to even more logistical problems by having no consistency in spare parts etc.
Their ability to repair and replace war material is shot due to lack of spares and access to critical materials such as chips etc.

Basically the Russians are like Spain with Nukes for a military.

Now if the Ukrainians can transition from Defensive to offensive capabilities and degrade the Russian army in the East as quickly as possible that will be the best way to get them to the negotiation table for real as opposed to the stalling negotiations they are doing now.  Look for those new switchblades loitering munitions to be put through their paces with attacks on supply areas/train depots and deeply emplaced artillery.  If that happens the Russians will be lucky if they can hold onto the territory that they gained in the 2014 invasion.



 

[Gusington]

Somewhere right now Starfury is laughing his ass off.

Are there are reliable numbers of Russian fragging incidents?

[Con]

The fragging incidents are somewhat isolated and sourced from Ukrainian intelligence.  That being said there is a good twitter thread that with some back of the number calculations says that the Ukrainian casualty reports for the Russians might be sport on.  If that is the case then other intelligence should not be dismissed as fog of war or propaganda from them.

Here is the twitter thread on the casualties
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1511399902265360385

[FarAway Sooner]

As we saw with COVID, media coverage seems more broadly shaped by what draws clicks than what information seems accurate, reliable, or to present a complete picture.  Inject fog of war, and it gets even more confusing.

I have no doubt that, in this conflict, the Russians are the bad guys.  But, if you're in an active shooting war and you're not lying, you're not trying hard enough.  I'll be curious to see if we ever figure out, months or years from now, where the Ukrainians were cutting corners on telling the whole truth.  I'd do nothing less if I were in their shoes.

[W8taminute]

Was doing some poking around whilst shopping for t-shirts. 

https://www.amazon.com/Support-Ukraine-President-Zelensky-Ukrainian/dp/B09V3GK6KB/ref=sr_1_1?hvadid=590746072284&hvdev=c&hvlocphy=9001998&hvnetw=g&hvqmt=b&hvrand=14041840941821078291&hvtargid=kwd-1641727548949&hydadcr=20669_9705450&keywords=president+zelensky+shirt&qid=1649260390&sr=8-1

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07G6Y52P2?_encoding=UTF8&customId=B07535YCL2

Interesting similarities.