Russia's War Against Ukraine

[MengJiao]

While the sinking has yet to be officially confirmed, the Internet isn't waiting. The meme factories are hard at work.

my personal favorite, so far

  "Ironically" (Irony seems to be yet another casualty of the attack on Ukraine), the Neptune missile is a fantastically ordinary, mid-range high subsonic cruise missile without a lot of range
or even a very powerful radar seeker.  Warhead 300 pounds, speed 609 mph.  Known in NATO terms as the Kayak if air-launched and the switchblade (a popular term with missile-builders) if ship
launched and the Bunyadk or something if fired from trucks in groups of 8 (8!).  The Ukrainian version of this KH-35 (Kayak-switchblade-bunyak) might have more range or waypoints or a better seeker but its still a missile so small that the Russians bill it as "the terror of US destroyers" (I guess because "ironically" nobody thought it might just sorta blow up Moskava -- if that's what happened).

   So what could go wrong?  How could a very ordinary missile hit the most heavily defended ship in the Black Sea?  Especially one that would be way back in the target pack?  And how can the Ukrainians be
sure that 2 Neptunes hit?  Also even 4 Neptunes would probably not be enough to sink Moskava  But something definitely triggered a major fire on the ship maybe as part of a response to
a missile attack during stormy weather.  Possibly the Russians' own defensive fire which is why nobody wants to be too specific about what happened. Moskava might have been in the middle of a lot
of defensive fire and chaff and jamming during some bad weather with her own defensive systems flipped on only breifly if at all, but in any case Moskava would at one point have been the biggest
radar reflection in the middle of a lot of things designed to confuse radars and BOOM!  there would have been all kinds of things that might hit the ship (it sounds like high up and aft?  Unless she is
being towed or there is some evidence a tow was attempted and stopped... then low and aft...?)

One Ukrainian source says "we don't know what happened" and the Russians aren't clarifying things much and US satellites can't see through the cloud cover.

  CNN says: Oleksiy Arestovych, adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said "we can't figure out what happened," suggesting confusion over what occurred.

  And:
Damaged Russian warship is afloat, Pentagon says, amid conflicting reports from Ukraine and Russia
From CNN's Jamie Crawford

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby told CNN that "there was an explosion" on the Russian cruiser Moskva, but added the United States cannot assess at this point if the ship was hit by a missile.

"We're not quite exactly sure what happened here. We do assess that there was an explosion — at least one explosion on this cruiser — a fairly major one at that, that has caused extensive damage to the ship," Kirby said. 
Russia said its warship "remains afloat" after a fire detonated ammunition on board, while Ukrainian officials said the Moskva was hit by Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles and has sunk.

"We assess that the ship is able to make its own way, and it is doing that; it's heading more towards now we think the east. We think it's probably going to be putting in at Sevastopol for repairs, but we don't know what exactly caused that," Kirby added.

Kirby said the ship had been operating with a few other Russian vessels about 60 miles (about 96 kilometers) south of Odesa.

"The explosion was sizable enough that we picked up indications that other naval vessels around her tried to come to her assistance, and so eventually that wasn't apparently needed. So she is making her own way across the Black Sea and we'll continue to try and monitor this as best we can," he added.



 

[Tripoli]

I'm a retired USNR surface warfare officer, so I have a small degree of experience with shipboard damage control and surface operations.  Here is my best guess, based on existing informattion of what may have happened to the Slava.  First of all, to recap what we know happened:

According to the USNI quoting Russia state media, "Russian Navy's Black Sea flagship has suffered major damage and the crew has abandoned the ship,  following Ukrainian claims of hitting the ship with a missile strike.  This indicates the ship is a total loss.  Even if it is not sunk, the fires are now uncontrolled, and without a crew to fight them, will burn until they can't burn anymore.  Given the ship was launched in the early 1980's, it won't be economical to repair it., assuming it can be towed to a port. (note: The Russians are claiming it will be towed back. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-flagship-black-sea-fleet-badly-damaged-by-blast-2022-04-14/) https://news.usni.org/2022/04/13/russian-navy-confirms-severe-damage-to-black-sea-cruiser-moskva-crew-abandoned-ship#more-93562

The Russians claim the fire was the result of the "explosion of ammunition" https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-flagship-black-sea-fleet-badly-damaged-by-blast-2022-04-14/.  They also claim fire was contained and that it was still afloat. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61103927.  This is at odds with the claim the ship was abandoned, i.e., "The entire crew have been evacuated" (https://news.usni.org/2022/04/13/russian-navy-confirms-severe-damage-to-black-sea-cruiser-moskva-crew-abandoned-ship#more-93562 ; https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61103927) but possibly there is a translation issue and/or simply a civilian spokesmen not understanding the difference between evacuating wounded and abandoning ship.

IMHO, this sounds like the ship is a total loss.  It was launched in 1983, and the fact that it is, at best, being towed back indicates the fire was extensive, as ammunition spaces are generally far from engineering spaces on a ship.  As such, it is unlikely that it will be economically efficient to repair the ship.

So what can be deduced from the reports thus far?  If the damage was caused by only by an accidental an explosion of ammunition (as the Russians are trying to indicate) the fire apparently spread far, and for some time. Occam's Razor says the better hypothesis is that the Moskva was  hit by Ukrainian missiles.  One missile may have hit at or near some engineering spaces and either the hit or the progressive damage took out power.   A second hit may have started some type of ammunition fire.  The Neptune missiles the Ukrainians are alleged to have used are subsonic, so the shock damage shouldn't have been so great to have dropped the engineering plant off line. (Assuming a properly designed and maintained engineering plant and associated electrical system).  So my guess is that there was one hit in, or very near the main engineering spaces and progressive damage took out any back up systems.  The alleged  ammunition fire may have been started by a second hit (as ammunition storage spaces should be relatively far from the engineering spaces.)  Apparently, any sprinkler/fire suppressant systems were either destroyed by the hit, or were not properly maintained so they didn't work.  Alternatively, the systems and the crew's damage control training, were not adequate to the task at hand. 

Another interesting issue is that the Moskva was hit at all.  If the Ukrainians fired only two subsonic missiles, then the Moskva's defenses should have been able to handle the threat.  Of course it is possible that more missiles were fired, but I am guessing that it would have taken a salvo of at least 6 such missiles to achieve 2 hits against a Slava.  More missiles would have been required if the Moskva was properly escorted.  However, poor training and equipment failure due to poor maintence and parts shortages could account for the effectiveness of the missile strike.  Another intersesting issue is how the Ukrainians managed to target the Slava in the first place.  Because I don't know what the geometry of the engagement was, I can't comment, other than to say that the sea is a big place.  Finding a target on the open water is a challenge.  Based on the size of the missile salvo, it is a reasonable assumption that the Ukrainians did not simply get a lucky hit.  Rather, they were confident they were aiming at the Moskva (or some other HVU).  So how did they know what they were shooting at?  Possibly the Moskva was using some emitter that was distinctive to it.  If so, it may  indicate poor EMCON discipline on the part of the Russian navy.  Alternatively, the Moskva was hit while it was within visual range of land.  If so, it should have been at GQ, and its defense been more effective against the missiles.  Alternatively, it was spotted by Ukrainian LBA, in which case it shows the Russians are providing insufficient CAP for their surface units.  Finally, it is possible the Ukrainians used drones to locate and target the Moskva, in which case it illustrates the dangers of brown water operations.  Hopefully, the USN is taking note.

[Sir Slash]

I've suspected for some time that U.S. and other Western Intelligence services are feeding intel to the Ukrainians more then we know or they'll admit. This could account for some of their biggest successes. Maybe this one too. Somebody's got some, 'splaining' to do to Vlad.  #:-)

[Gusington]

The Revell model meme wins the internet for a month!

[Tripoli]

I've suspected for some time that U.S. and other Western Intelligence services are feeding intel to the Ukrainians more then we know or they'll admit. This could account for some of their biggest successes. Maybe this one too. Somebody's got some, 'splaining' to do to Vlad.  #:-)

It is possible that the Ukrainians were given access to western targeting.  However, maritime targeting data is extremely perishable.  If they targeted the Moskva using NATO data, then it would be effectively "real time" data, ie, basically a call from the detecting NATO unit to the Ukrainian firing unit (I am simplifying this somewhat, but it would be very rapid comms).  I don't know if we have that type of relationship with the Ukrainians.  However, we might.  I've wondered about the sheer number of Russian generals the Ukrainians have managed to kill, and whether they could get that kind of rapid targeting data without some NATO assistance).

One additional note to this: Because most merchant traffic has left the Black Sea (or is docked in port awaiting the war to end) the targeting problem is somewhat simplified, as  there isn't nearly as many merchant contacts you have to deconflict.  Therefore, the targeting data on the Moskva is not quite as perishable as it would be in, for instance, the Straits of Sicily.  With that said, it still requires fairly recent data to get a good targeting solution on a warship.

[Con]

[Gusington]

 ;D

[MengJiao]

The Revell model meme wins the internet for a month!

Let's see...still battling fire...other ships have moved south...sounds like something coming out of Ukraine did something.  Maybe a Sea Venom (a small Anglo-French antiship missile called
"Sea Venom" in the UK world because they like that already-used name for some reason) from a drone?
But you might say...why claim it was the Neptune?  Well, maybe the Sea Venom-drone combo is much stealthier can find search for targets then go infrared with human guidance and why give it away?  You could fire some Neptunes to cover your drone-sea venom combo and the Russians would have no clue to use flares rather than chaff etc.:



US assesses Russian warship still battling fire, but cannot confirm cause, defense official says
From CNN's Michael Conte

The United States assesses that the Russian cruiser Moskva is still battling a fire onboard but still cannot confirm what caused the damage, according to a senior US defense official.

The official also said that the ship is moving east, and the US assumes it will be heading to the port of Sevastopol for repairs.

The US has seen that other Russian ships in the northern Black Sea near the Moskva have all subsequently moved further south, according to the official.

Ukraine claimed to have hit Moskva with a missile, while Russia said the cause of the fire is still "being established" and that there is no "open fire" on the ship.

"We cannot confirm what caused the damage to the cruiser Moskva. We do believe that she has experienced significant damage. Our assessment is that she still appears to be battling a fire onboard. But we do not know the extent of the damage. We don't know anything about casualties to her crew. And we cannot definitely say at this point what caused that damage," the US official said.
"We hold the ship moving to the east. Our assumption is that she'll be heading to Sevastopol for repairs. But that's really all we can say. The only other maritime activity worth noting is that we did note that other Black Sea ships that were operating in the vicinity of her or in the northern Black Sea have all moved further south, in the wake of the damage that the Moskva experienced. So they've all, all of the northern Black Sea ships have now moved out, away from the northern areas where they were operating in," the official added.

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby echoed similar comments in an interview with CNN earlier Thursday, saying that "there was an explosion" on the Russian cruiser, but that the United States cannot assess at this point if the ship was hit by a missile.

[Gusington]

Ukrainians are reaching Indiana Jones or Red Dawn levels of creativity here 

From CNN:

'Bridge destroyed as Russians crossed: A Ukraine special-operations unit destroyed a bridge as a Russian convoy crossed it while it headed toward Izium in southeastern Kharkiv region, the Command of the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claimed in a statement Thursday. They said the Ukrainian unit destroyed the bridge with an explosive charge as a convoy of a Tiger armored vehicle and several trucks crossed it.'

[FarAway Sooner]

I really really think Putin is going to regret pissing off the Ukraine people and pushing them to "obsessive, undying levels of hatred" towards Russia and their war-crime actions.

To hell with religious terrorists getting and using a suitcase bomb, I think now the most likely scenario for this will be a Ukrainian lighting up the Kremlin with one.

Your point reminds me of the retired Russian general who published an impassioned plea on Feb 11th, to not go to war and for Putin to resign.

General Ivashov said:  Launching an attack on Ukraine "will call into question the existence of Russia itself as a state" and will make "Russians and Ukrainians mortal enemies".

Ivashov also predicted that NATO would directly intervene. Given the level of frustration with Putin, I am thinking NATO intervention may still come to pass.

https://nypost.com/2022/02/07/ex-russia-general-warns-putin-against-criminal-ukraine-invasion/?utm_source=url_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons

I do not think there is any way NATO will militarily involve itself unless Russia commits even more egregious barbarous acts or direct attacks on NATO itself. Western populations are too spoiled and coddled to countenance war without far more provocation.

I do wonder whether there might not be a tit-for-tat retaliatory military cycle available to the Allies there, should they choose to pursue it (e.g., a one-time retaliatory cruise missile strike on a location cited as "the base of chemical weapons usage for a separatist faction in the Donbask region").  There are a number of options available short of all-out military conflict with boots and tanks on the ground shooting at the Russians at close quarters.

In terms of coddling, I agree.  The curious thing is, even as the two sides work to kill and beat each other into submission (the West is only doing so via Ukrainian proxies), the West continues to buy billions of $$ of Russian energy exports and Russia refuses to cut off the flows of coal, oil, or natural gas.  A full-scale shutdown of Russian energy exports to Western Europe would likely trigger a major recession (I heard one policy wonk on the radio throw out the forecast of an 8% one-time hit to German GDP if they went cold turkey on Russian energy in the next week).

It's unclear if the folks in the West are frantically scrambling to secure alternate energy sources, or if they're just nibbling at the margins of the problem and hoping things get back to normal sooner rather than later.  Getting coal and oil from alternate commercial sources isn't especially hard or expensive, but getting new LNG infrastructure (primarily pipelines) built takes A LOT more time and money.  Despite their aggressive growth of renewables, Germany is the one who is the most dependent on Russia for energy right now (LNG in particular), and the Germans have always had a hard time voting against their own pocketbooks.

[JasonPratt]

So with the ship abandoned, the fires are being fought and it's limping eastward... I am forced to assume that Russian ghosts have arisen to save the Glory!  :))

My favorite semi-serious theory is that this is the largest fragging incident in history: the other ships around it decided to hit the Moskva and blame operator error during a heavy storm free-fire defense.  :arr:

On a more serious theory in connection with Western SIGINT help -- I wonder how many NATO/US subs are currently trolling around quietly in the Black Sea. Even if they don't fire, they could be passing along targeting information using periscope (or floatation) signal bursts.

But then again, do the Uks have a small sub active after all...? 

At the end of the day, I'm sure whatever kicked it off, Tripoli's assessment will prove accurate (and embarrassing for the Russian navy, thus to be hidden if possible.)

While the sinking has yet to be officially confirmed, the Internet isn't waiting. The meme factories are hard at work.

my personal favorite, so far

Finally! -- a model I have some hope of building successfully! This will be the new entry-level model.

[MengJiao]

But then again, do the Uks have a small sub active after all...? 

   I think the only operational NATO submarines in the Black Sea are Turkish.

[Gusington]

^Interesting questions...does Ukraine operate any subs at all?

[MengJiao]

^Interesting questions...does Ukraine operate any subs at all?

  I think Russia took their only subs in 2014 when they took Sevastapol.  On the other hand, the Ukrainians did build Moskava so maybe they
knew some sneaky way to use the Force (Luke) and drop a small bomb down a womprat hole somewhere on the ship.

[Windigo]

scratch one slava class crusier.  <:-)

<:-) <:-)