Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Gusington]

The legacy of Kaliningrad is also part of the destruction of Prussia and all things Prussian.

[MengJiao]

^You mean that shot wasn't taken in your living room?

   One way or another (two recent things in the CNN updates suggest anyway), the Russians are leaving or being pushed out of the Kharkiv area.  This suggests the Russians might be trying to consolidate farther SE and claim victory once they take Mariupol.  Of course, if they are trying to declare victory and offer a ceasefire (that Ukraine can't accept, as Zelensky has already hinted), it seems just as likely that
they will shoot themselves in both feet by attacking NATO resupply or nuking something.  It seems possible that once they get Mariupol they will offer a ceasefire on the line they hold from Kherson to the LNR.
This will leave Ukraine in the odd situation of wanting to continue the war with major offensive action.  So things may get strange indeed.

[GDS_Starfury]

 
it sure looks like she took a hit in a missile tube.

[al_infierno]

 :DD  :clap:

[MengJiao]

it sure looks like she took a hit in a missile tube.

  Yep and it looks like she fired half her Grumbles so her radars were working when she got hit.  The forward short-range defense missiles (about 20 Geckos forward) might have fired as
well so maybe the Ukrainians just fired a fair number of
Neptunes when the sea was rough and the radar clutter from waves and rain and low sheets of cloud was dense and two Neptunes got through and hit low down
amidships...sort of the opposite of fire that triggers the ammunition.   The evenly-spaced burn marks high on the hull seem kind of odd, almost like another ship's
missile defense guns shot a swerving burst her way or maybe that's just were fire from deep in the ship shot out.

[ComradeP]

The evenly spaced scorch marks seem odd indeed.

As it's larger in size compared to the other scorch marks, the aft scorch mark next to the Ka-27 hangar might be the second hit. The ship seems to be deeper in the water there, but that looks like an optical effect caused by a wave. The water is higher between the SA-N-6 launchers and those aft outboard stairs.

Either 2 or 4 SS-N-12's might've blown up, it's difficult to see whether the third pair is still there.

The roughly amidships missile hit the area where a pair of AK-630's is located. Would an explosion of a Neptune very close to one of those launch tubes have any chance of penetrating it with debris or the warhead/fuel explosion if the AK-630's or a missile hit the Neptune close to the ship?

[MengJiao]

The evenly spaced scorch marks seem odd indeed.

As it's larger in size compared to the other scorch marks, the aft scorch mark next to the Ka-27 hangar might be the second hit. The ship seems to be deeper in the water there, but that looks like an optical effect caused by a wave. The water is higher between the SA-N-6 launchers and those aft outboard stairs.

Either 2 or 4 SS-N-12's might've blown up, it's difficult to see whether the third pair is still there.

The roughly amidships missile hit the area where a pair of AK-630's is located. Would an explosion of a Neptune very close to one of those launch tubes have any chance of penetrating it with debris or the warhead/fuel explosion if the AK-630's or a missile hit the Neptune close to the ship?

  Good points.  Definitely 1-2 hits or near misses (the AK-630s could explode the missile so close that it might broaden the damage high up) midships with other damage maybe from friendly fire
from aft to midships.  So both the Russians and the Ukrainians could be right -- very close hits or misses -- looks like a real hit low down maybe 3 meters above where the water line would have
been and then all kinds of other things (fires, ammo, friendly fire).  I think the decks are just much lower far aft...really not that much damage back there?

[ComradeP]

There's also the extreme "friendly fire isn't friendly" scenario where no Neptune hit the ship, but some rapid fire cannon from an escort ripped through the SS-N-12's.

[MengJiao]

There's also the extreme "friendly fire isn't friendly" scenario where no Neptune hit the ship, but some rapid fire cannon from an escort ripped through the SS-N-12's.

  The scorches might be from AA hits from an escort's 76mm gun.  It is odd they are on the same side as what looks like at least one big Neptune hit.  With the bigger waves on the 13th (picture is from
about 36 hours later), escorts trying to hit a drone high up on the other side might have hit Moskva while accidently blocking detection of missiles coming in from their side.  There is also that
video shot from land about 60 km away that shows flashes all over the sky (big and little) over a front of about 10-15 km so a lot of shooting was happening out there as the drones and missiles closed in.

[GDS_Starfury]

there just scorch marks through portholes from the fire that broke out.

[Tripoli]

I'm going to do a bit of "stream of consciousness" analysis here.  If my writing appears to be disjointed, I apologize in advance.
Using an enhanced image found here: https://twitter.com/WarObserver14/status/1515838321682882567/photo/1, it appears one missile hit near the waterline (arrow 1).  I agree with Star, that apparently the resulting fires blew out pannels along the hull.  That explains the unusually spaced scorch marks where the hull meets the main deck. (see arrow 2 for an example)



This hit appears to be just forward of the main funnel .  Base on the schematic below, this may have hit approximately between the two engineering spaces, which is probably an auxilliary engineering space.. Potentially, this hit took out both main spaces. [edit: its hard to tell, but looking at the image some more, I'm guessing the hit was approximately where the forward main engineering space is]

[ComradeP]

there just scorch marks through portholes from the fire that broke out.

That might also explain the big scorch mark near the afterdeck. There are no portholes below the main deck in that area, but there's a row of portholes in front of the outboard stairs (so one deck below the other portholes). A fire through one of those portholes could cover a greater area, because the hull doesn't "end" at the main deck like at the other scorch marks.

[MengJiao]

there just scorch marks through portholes from the fire that broke out.

That might also explain the big scorch mark near the afterdeck. There are no portholes below the main deck in that area, but there's a row of portholes in front of the outboard stairs (so one deck below the other portholes). A fire through one of those portholes could cover a greater area, because the hull doesn't "end" at the main deck like at the other scorch marks.

  Another odd thing: in one of those close-ups, you can see something happened under the big radar aft.  Another hit?  Or a secondary explosion?  With no scorching?  Looks like something hit just under the big radar -- maybe even went through without exploding?

[GDS_Starfury]

thats where the ships torpedos are located.

[Tripoli]

Here's a photo of how high the Slava is supposed to ride in the water.

When the damaged photo was taken, it was clearly sinking.  The absence of the life rafts near the aft hanger structure show the ship had been abandoned when the photo was taken.  Of note, the TOP DOME FCR (arrow 1) appears to be in the "stowed" position, possibly indicating that the ship was not prepared to engage any aerial targets with the SA-N-6 . SImilarly, the portside POP GROUP  radar is stowed (arrow 3), indicating the SA-N-4 system FCR was was not  prepared to engage targets on the portside.


This image also shows the location of the waterline hit, and indicates it was aft of the SS-N-12 launchers.   Of note, the torpedoes on the slava are carried near the hanger, just below the main deck.  THis may explain the scorch marks near hanger deck that ComradP mentions.  I'm also interested in the damage shown by the box.  This may be a hull crack. While the image isn't clear, the deck appears to be thrust upwards near the scorch mark that is enclosed by the box on this image.  Possibly a detonation of the torpedoes?

The missing hatches on the SA-N-6 VLS may simply be a reflection of damage control efforts.  Possibly the crew was attempting to cool the missile by running water "fog" over the missiles to keep them cool.  Alternatively, if the hull had cracked, the hatches may be popping off as the hull flexes in the sea.

In these images, I don't see the SS-N-12 launchers as clearly damaged.  They may be, but I don't clearly see it.  I'm also not sure where the second hit occurred.  The missiles could have both hit in the same area, so the damage being attributed to one missile may in fact be from two missiles. Or maybe there was only one hit, or the second hit is not visible because it is below the water.