Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Jarhead0331]

^ The father of one of the young conscripts who went missing on the Moskva missile cruiser lashes out at the Russian military who are even refusing to tell him what happened to his son.
The father says he was contacted by other families of MIA conscripts from the ship.




The irony? The father's page is full of pro-invasion and pro-Putin posts.

As cute and funny as all the Moskva memes are, it is really no laughing matter. Posts like this one bring home the tragedy that it is not Putin or the "oligarchs" who are suffering...its the hapless conscripts who were forced into service, lied to and sent to their deaths.

[Tripoli]

....

As cute and funny as all the Moskva memes are, it is really no laughing matter. Posts like this one bring home the tragedy that it is not Putin or the "oligarchs" who are suffering...its the hapless conscripts who were forced into service, lied to and sent to their deaths.

Amen. I would estimate there are approximately 100 dead and/or crippled from the sinking of the Moskva.  Most of them died in very painful and horrible ways, and all of them died way too young.  And few, if any, were "bad" people who deserved to die.  Relatively few were likely even supporters of this war.  And while their deaths may have been necessary, it does not make them any less tragic. 

[FarAway Sooner]

Yeah.  What you two said.

[planetbrain]

It seems that the Russian assault in the East has commenced. I do hope Ukraine can stop them. I would love to hear of a massive Soviet...oops, Russian.....defeat, even as I doubt the possibility.

Ukraine-Russia war: Russia attacking Donbas region on 480km-long front involving 50,000 troops, Ukrainian officials say.

[MengJiao]

From the IntelliNews article:

Getting a hit

'Returning to the moment when a Neptune missile appeared over the horizon at 22 km and with fifty seconds to impact, Moskva's reaction would have been a combination of kinetic and electronic countermeasures. We've listed the possible electronic countermeasures (ECM) above. Moskva was old and probably had an out-dated ECM suite unable to jam a modern agile seeker jumping from active radar to passive radar and back at the speed of software. Neptune's designers may well have had accurate information on Moskva's ECM suite as well, gained during service in Soviet times.'

  Moskva might not have gotten all the latest ECM upgrades that for example, ships in the Northern or Baltic or Pacific Fleets might have gotten.  The Russian Black Sea Fleet seems to have been
underfunded and not recieved nearly as much recent and frontline gear as say the Northern or Pacific Fleets.  Even the dreaded hypersonic Kalibr missiles that have been hitting things apparently well on the Black Sea Fleet's latest frigates the two Kalibrs have to be cranked up in their launchers from where they are stowed behind the helicopter landing platform.  The set of more advanced or at least larger
frigates wasn't completed because the engines were to have been built in Ukraine.  So really, overall, the Black Sea Fleet is probably the least potent of the Russian Fleets at least in terms of having the
most recent upgrades and latest big frigates and it seems to have no functioning guided missile destroyers at all that I can find any references to. 
So apparently, whatever the tasks the Black Sea Fleet were expected to undertake -- they were not supposed to be anywhere near as demanding as the tasks of say the Northern or Pacific Fleets which at least do seem to have some guided missile destroyers.
And I guess Turkey willl not be letting any Russian ships through the straits so there's not much Russia can do to quickly build up the Black Sea Fleet.

[Pete Dero]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-10191381/The-women-fighting-Putin-Moment-opposition-politician-forced-isolate.html
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt18927696/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0

I watched this documentary yesterday and became more depressed as it continued.

It is about Russian opposition politicians as they campaign in 2021 and refuse to back down.

They are not explicitly banned from taking part in the elections, they are simply making it impossible for them to get on an election list by breaking them physically and emotionally.

One is being forced to isolate in a hospital's Covid ward despite not having the virus so she can't register her candidacy.  When she is released after a hunger strike they still refuse to accept her candidacy because they claim she is a member of a terrorist group (connected to Navalny).
An other is arrested for breaking Covid rules by supposedly putting her followers in danger at a meeting.  When she leaves jail she is immediately arrested again for supposedly cursing in public.
Some are arrested for possession of drugs that have been planted on them or in their house by the police.

The all end up in jail almost without interruption until they are totally destroyed and see no other option than to leave Russia.
Protester Lusya Stein (member of Pussy Riot) says: 'To be a politician in Russia, you have to be prepared to lose everything... And sacrifice your life.' 

Russia is resembling more and more North Korea  :(.

[FarAway Sooner]

Pete, there's a really insightful article that talks about what the Russian middle class did for their country in the last 20 years at the link below.  They largely wrote off Russian national government as a sphere for improving their country and started doing all kinds of community-organizing and work to make a difference at the local level.  They are now seeing all those organizations disbanded and decapitated by a Russian national government that is under pressure and clamping down.

In a certain sense, it sounds like they made the same kind of deal with Putin that Western democracies did:  "Keep your unpleasant stuff under a certain level and we'll focus on doing the stuff we like."  As is usually the case with tyrants, you can only ignore them until they grow particularly powerful or desperate.

https://ukrainecrisis.org/006040282-putin-s-war-in-ukraine-shatters-an-illusion-in-russia

[Pete Dero]

^
First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.

Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a trade unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.

A 1946 post-war prose about the silence of German intellectuals by the German Lutheran pastor Martin Niemöller.

[JasonPratt]

Russia is resembling more and more North Korea  :(.

Their neighbors can only hope they reach the competency of North Korea. 

[MengJiao]

Russia is resembling more and more North Korea  :(.

Their neighbors can only hope they reach the competency of North Korea. 

   Well, they are up to 75% of their starting stuff:

  Official: US seeing new "limited offensive operations" by Russia southwest of Donetsk and south of Izium
From CNN's Michael Conte and Ellie Kaufman

The US has seen "limited offensive operations" undertaken by Russia southwest of Donetsk and south of Izium in Ukraine, according to a senior US defense official, who added that the US believes these are "preludes to larger offensive operations."

The official said the new operations have consisted of "ground movements ... supported, of course, by some long-range fires, mostly artillery."

But the official also stressed that Russia is still conducting "shaping operations" as well "to make sure they have logistics and sustainment in place" along with other "enabling capabilities."

The US expects to see a "more blended approach" to the new operations in Ukraine after their failures in the north of the country, according to the official.

Russia has added two more battalion tactical groups (BTGs) to its forces inside Ukraine in the last 24 hours, according to the official, bringing the total to 78 BTGs.

However, the official said the US assesses that Russia is now down to 75% of the "combat power" that had been amassed before the latest invasion of Ukraine.

"This is across all functions ... it's infantry, it's artillery, it's aviation, both fixed and rotary, it's ballistic missile, cruise missile," the official said on a call with reporters. "When you just add it all up, our general assessment is he's about 75% of his original combat power."

[GDS_Starfury]

didnt those morons go into this with 150 btgs?

[MengJiao]

didnt those morons go into this with 150 btgs?

   Well, I thought it was something like that.  Maybe 78 btgs can still exhibit significant signs of orkish cohesion or something.  Maybe there's now a lot more
artillery and support elements or something.  Surely after throwing everything that can drop bombs at Mariupol, there must be some artillery and whatnot left to take the Donbas.

[Pete Dero]

Russia is determined to liberate the gas people of the Donbas region.


2011 : https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-shell-idUSL6N0ALD2U20130116

Ukraine took a step closer to a breakthrough shale gas deal with global energy major Royal Dutch Shell on Wednesday when local authorities in the eastern Donetsk region approved a planned production sharing agreement.

The former Soviet republic, which hopes its big shale gas reserves will help end reliance on costly imports of Russian natural gas, chose Shell last May as a partner to develop the Yuzivska shale gas field.
"At its peak, in 13-15 years, annual production may exceed 20 bcm. This will not only strengthen our energy independence but will also significantly reduce gas prices."

Ukraine currently pays about $430 per thousand cubic metres for Russian gas under a 10-year deal signed in 2009 by a preceding government. The present Kiev government says the price is exorbitant, but it has so far failed to persuade Russia to bring it down.

Shell sees investment at $10 billion under the most likely scenario and over $50 billion under the optimistic scenario.

"The Yuzivska area production sharing agreement is the biggest project in Ukraine that will attract tens of billions of dollars in investment," Proskuryakov said.


2015 : https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/opinion/russia-s-silent-shale-gas-victory-in-ukraine/

After the conflict began in 2014, oil and gas firms Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron withdrew their investments in the Yuzovsky and Olesska shale gas blocks.

In Russia's silent shale gas victory in Ukraine, the Russian-backed rebels fighting in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions ensured that at least for the near future, Ukraine's shale gas potential will not be able to challenge Gazprom's gas monopoly in the region.



Coincidence ?

[GDS_Starfury]

   Well, I thought it was something like that.  Maybe 78 btgs can still exhibit significant signs of orkish cohesion or something.  Maybe there's now a lot more
artillery and support elements or something.  Surely after throwing everything that can drop bombs at Mariupol, there must be some artillery and whatnot left to take the Donbas.

I wonder how much life is left in those barrels.

[GDS_Starfury]

russian tank wants to be a subway