Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Tripoli]

Here's a good summation of the naval aspect of the Russian-Ukrainian war:
https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/the-russo-ukrainian-war-at-sea-retrospect-and-prospect/?__s=xlwaqxfp3j5d8o2leqan

[FarAway Sooner]

Fire Rips Through Secret Russian Bureau Responsible for Designing Missiles

Accident or hhhmmmm? :-\

  I think the design bureau tried to shoot itself in the foot (better than being sent to jail for not shooting yourself in the foot), but instead went too far and burned the whole place down in an excess of
shoot-in-the-foot enthusiasm.

If you take the news story at face value, the fire was reportedly due to "old wiring and flammable plastic cladding".  In that sense, it sounds very similar to the weapons that Russian military has been operating for the last 25 years.

In authoritarian times, it's temping to emphasize the size of your hat and not the size of your herd of cattle.  We saw that same sort of incompetence topple the Soviet Union 40 years ago.  It's not astonishing to see it continually rearing its head in Russia again.

[FarAway Sooner]

Here's a good summation of the naval aspect of the Russian-Ukrainian war:
https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/the-russo-ukrainian-war-at-sea-retrospect-and-prospect/?__s=xlwaqxfp3j5d8o2leqan

Good article, Tripoli.  I wish the article had gone into a little more detail on the strategic ramifications of naval developments for the land war in Ukraine.  But I get that the author works hard to keep his focus on naval aspects.

My take-away from the article above is that the sinking of the Moskva has more thoroughly denied Russia control of contested littoral waters, but it's unclear what advantages (aside from a more secure flank) that might provide for the Ukrainians.  As has been discussed previously, the sinking of the Moskva has significant symbolic value, but limited strategic value.

It's an interesting observation that Ukraine might at some point be able to threaten Russian assets at Sevastopol.  I assume that would be through cruise missile attacks as a first option, but have no idea what the geography allows or what sort of weapons the Ukrainians might have on hand? 

The war in Ukraine is being decided right now on the ground.  While all the media coverage is focused on Mariupol, I wish they would cover developments (if any) anywhere else in Eastern Ukraine.  I get the importance of seizing Mariupol to secure a land bridge to Sevastopol and those isolated Crimean separatist regions, but is that land bridge the only property that Russia intends to secure before declaring "objectives are met" in Ukraine and heading to the bargaining table?

I know that Ukraine doesn't want to give up a single square mile of territory, but if that's all they end up losing (for now) before declaring some sort of ceasefire, I'd have to think that's an acceptable (if not ideal) outcome for the Ukrainians.  That's especially true if they end up securing NATO membership and are able to keep most of the Western punitive measures in place for the long haul.

In the meantime, I wonder whether the Ukrainians are contemplating attacks on assets in Russian territory as a means of increasing pressure on the Russians?  I doubt it would be successful if they did so because the Russian regime doesn't care how many of its own civilians (or soldiers) die, but the Russians are playing a dangerous game with a neighbor who still has teeth.

Mostly, I wish we knew anything about the war in the East of Ukraine besides "Mariupol is holding out but bound to fall soon".

[GDS_Starfury]

well heres another map update from two days ago:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1516276200540459016

[al_infierno]

https://www.newsweek.com/oligarchs-murder-suicide-1699766

Two major Russian oligarchs and their families were found dead within 24 hours, each one apparently murdering their entire families before committing suicide.  This reeks of "suicide by two shots to the back of the head" to me.  I wonder if these two were planning on moving their assets out of Russia and the FSB caught wind of it.

[ArizonaTank]

Live map is showing some Ukrainian claims of Su-25 and a couple of Ka-52s and some other Russian aircraft shot down with manpads in the last 24 hours.

Plenty of Russian bombardment happening the East.

But not seeing the reports of ground combat that we were seeing a few weeks back (except in Mariuple).

Maybe the Russians are going to let their big guns do some more prep before they start their "big" attack.

The map quotes a Pentagon reporter for Foreign Policy Mag, Jack Detsch (the link is over the Pentagon on the map). He is saying Ukraine now has more tanks in country than the Russians thanks to T-72 deliveries from NATO.  That would be interesting if true.

https://liveuamap.com/en

[FarAway Sooner]

Sheesh.  That is interesting on the tank count.  Thanks for the map, Star!  I feel like I need a keyboard overlay to suppress all the unit names, but that's probably what I get for not having played enough wargames in the last 30 years...

At this point, I assume that the Ukrainians have most of their National Guard mobilized.  I have no idea how well-trained or well-equipped those units are, but after 55 days, I assume they're coming up the readiness curve. 

Unit cohesion for either side is anybody's guess.  If you believed most of the media reports, the Russians would have all stopped fighting 30 days ago.

[SirAndrewD]

Sheesh.  That is interesting on the tank count. 

Very unsurprising as well. 

The number of 13k tanks that keeps being thrown about for Russian armor numbers are wildly inflated.  There are a few informative videos and articles that do a deep dive on that. 

Of that supposed 13k, 10k or more are in "reserve". 

Our 3k Abrams in reserve receive roughly 10 man hours of maintenance week to keep them going.  The Russians, due to budgetary issues, graft, corruption and general lack of control put almost no time into maintaining that reserve fleet.

Areal photos confirm that Russian reserve armor parks are filled with rusted out hulks, some that were stripped for spare parts, others that had parts stolen for black market sales.

The Russians have been reducing their reserves for years, and some feel that if those reserve tanks were in any shape to fight, they'd already have been sold off. 

So, we have no idea what percentage of their Reserves are combat capable, but most speculation is that it's a lot less than 50%, and even the ones that could fight could take weeks or longer to get into shape. 

That means that even at the start of the war, before Russia took massive losses that in actual operational armor, the Ukrainians had very close to parity with the Russian army.

It also means that at this point the Russians are likely changing their offensive plans because they flatly don't have the armor to conduct operations on a broad front any longer. 

[al_infierno]

It's just surreal.  What do you even do about an enemy like this who is vast, has access to a potentially world-ending arsenal, and is corrupt to the absolute core?  We could defeat them a thousand times over in a conventional battle but it doesn't matter at all.  They have a self secured privilege to do whatever they want as long as they save face with their own people - which they're clearly doing, as many Russians are clearly trapped in a disinformation propaganda bubble.

It seems like there's just nothing to be done but hope the winds blow against the current administration and continue hoping the next administration sucks less.

[MengJiao]

It's just surreal.  What do you even do about an enemy like this who is vast, has access to a potentially world-ending arsenal, and is corrupt to the absolute core?  We could defeat them a thousand times over in a conventional battle but it doesn't matter at all.  They have a self secured privilege to do whatever they want as long as they save face with their own people - which they're clearly doing, as many Russians are clearly trapped in a disinformation propaganda bubble.

It seems like there's just nothing to be done but hope the winds blow against the current administration and continue hoping the next administration sucks less.

  I keep thinking things along the lines of "If the Russians were smart they could do XYZ" of course if they had known what they were doing, they would not have attacked to begin with.  Anyway,
if the Russians were smart they would stop the war right now, cuz I think (and if they were smart, they would too) they are not going to be getting much more territory and they are running a lot
of risks as far as getting seriously crushed even in Ukraine...not to mention all the other stuff that needs some major adjustment like stopping the inane tantrums about NATO and getting kicked out of
international Tennis and whacko plans of taking Moldova.  Moldova!  a) pointless and b) if you can't get to Odessa, you can't get to Moldova even if you have "a regiment in Trnisnta"  If they get smashed by Ukraine, NATO is really not something they can afford to keep yakking about.  It's true that Putin is starting to declare victories here and there, but the timing for that as usual could not be worse.  He should have declared victory before he invaded and skipped the whole mess.  Or any time after that -- but now (as usual) declaring a few spotty victories is just stupid.

[JasonPratt]

You mean, even though the invaders are actually in (this war's version of) 'Stalingrad' now, and are declaring victory at last, they haven't really captured the city??  :D

So, at the cost of ruining what's left of most of his standing army and air force, losing his cap ship, pissing off the Cossacks beyond all rational comprehension, and goosing literally everyone else on his border to join NATO or die, Putin gets a dubiously controlled land route directly from the Donbas separatists republics to the Crimea (and I guess a dubiously controlled new port area). "We are the wictory!"  :bd:  :hide:

[Pete Dero]

^

Russian military commander Rustam Minnekaev now says the second phase of President Vladimir Putin's "special operation" is focused on establishing a "land corridor" from the Donbas all the way to Moldova, which would cut off the rest of Ukraine from the sea.

"One of the tasks of the Russian army is to establish full control over the Donbas and southern Ukraine. This will provide a land corridor to the Crimea, as well as influence the vital objects of the Ukrainian economy," Minnekaev said Friday at a meeting with the Union of Defense Industries, as reported by the Russian state-owned Interfax.
"Control over the south of Ukraine is another way out to Transnistria, where there are also facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population." Transnistria is a separatist region of Moldova that has so far not been officially involved in the war despite hosting a Russian military base since the 1990s.

Phoney efforts to protect Russian-speaking peoples have often foreshadowed Putin's imperial invasions.

[Gusington]

'Of course if they knew what they were doing, the wouldn't have attacked to begin with.'

Quote of the year right there from Meng.

[MengJiao]

You mean, even though the invaders are actually in (this war's version of) 'Stalingrad' now, and are declaring victory at last, they haven't really captured the city??  :D

So, at the cost of ruining what's left of most of his standing army and air force, losing his cap ship, pissing off the Cossacks beyond all rational comprehension, and goosing literally everyone else on his border to join NATO or die, Putin gets a dubiously controlled land route directly from the Donbas separatists republics to the Crimea (and I guess a dubiously controlled new port area). "We are the wictory!"  :bd:  :hide:

  Well, you'd think they would "declare victory" some time soon, if only to work on reducing the overall damage to the Russian economy and so on.  But is there a "logical" stopping place?  Especially given that the Ukrainians are building up and the Russians are possibly at their peak effective strength?  Obviously all the HE hurled into Kharkiv for example is purely for show since the Russians are being driven back from around Kharkiv even if they finally overran what the Ukrainians left that was likely to be cut off between Izium and the LNR-DNR.  Stopping a few weeks ago or not attacking at all would have been better and stopping now would be better than stopping in a few weeks -- but can they stop themselves before things get even worse and China fronts for Russia like China does for North Korea?
Apparently they aren't going to be able to stop until the Ukrainians start pushing them back all over the place and at that point it will really be too late for them to get any kind of a deal or save any face or save their army or their regime or their economy or any credibility or keeping anyone out of NATO.  Hopefully, the Chinese will get them to stop and get a deal or two before then and right about now would be a good time for that so obviously they aren't going to stop any time soon no matter how many victories they declare.

[Gusington]

The Cossacks are pissed? Good.