Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Pete Dero]

You mean, even though the invaders are actually in (this war's version of) 'Stalingrad' now, and are declaring victory at last, they haven't really captured the city??  :D

So, at the cost of ruining what's left of most of his standing army and air force, losing his cap ship, pissing off the Cossacks beyond all rational comprehension, and goosing literally everyone else on his border to join NATO or die, Putin gets a dubiously controlled land route directly from the Donbas separatists republics to the Crimea (and I guess a dubiously controlled new port area). "We are the wictory!"  :bd:  :hide:

  Well, you'd think they would "declare victory" some time soon, if only to work on reducing the overall damage to the Russian economy and so on.  But is there a "logical" stopping place?  Especially given that the Ukrainians are building up and the Russians are possibly at their peak effective strength?  Obviously all the HE hurled into Kharkiv for example is purely for show since the Russians are being driven back from around Kharkiv even if they finally overran what the Ukrainians left that was likely to be cut off between Izium and the LNR-DNR.  Stopping a few weeks ago or not attacking at all would have been better and stopping now would be better than stopping in a few weeks -- but can they stop themselves before things get even worse and China fronts for Russia like China does for North Korea?
Apparently they aren't going to be able to stop until the Ukrainians start pushing them back all over the place and at that point it will really be too late for them to get any kind of a deal or save any face or save their army or their regime or their economy or any credibility or keeping anyone out of NATO.  Hopefully, the Chinese will get them to stop and get a deal or two before then and right about now would be a good time for that so obviously they aren't going to stop any time soon no matter how many victories they declare.

Victory declarations are only for internal use.  Doesn't work if you're not brainwashed.

[jamus34]

Well, there's always "moral victories"

Or maybe the Russian government is giving out participation awards.

[GDS_Starfury]

russian participation trophy

[Gusington]

ouch

[Pete Dero]

russian participation trophy

In reality they get even less :

[al_infierno]

Even assuming each one has a body bag is probably generous.

[SirAndrewD]

  Well, you'd think they would "declare victory" some time soon, if only to work on reducing the overall damage to the Russian economy and so on.  But is there a "logical" stopping place? 

For the Russians, they likely have an end point in mind.  If they can achieve it is up in the air but there is a way they can "win" and still achieve a lot of their goals in the long term. 

If they can seize and occupy at least some of the major natural gas reserves in Eastern Ukraine, that's a start.   In the south, building a land bridge, securing fresh water sources to help save Crimea from it's massive soil salinization problems and land lock Ukraine would, conceivably give Russia a pretty fair cause to claim a victory and stop. 

Achieving those goals could conceivably wreck Ukraine's economy and stifle it's growth trajectory enough that at least, they'd be unable to continue to be a "threat" to Russian regional dominance.  Maybe even with pressure and time the Russians could effect some kind of covert regime change if the Ukrainian economy falters enough.

All speculation though.  But I'd wager that these are the ideal war goals for Russia to achieve and if they do achieve them, they will end their "special operation". 

The issue of course is that the Ukrainians have something to say about it.  Every day they get stronger and the Russians get weaker.  We've already seen they now have at least some armor superiority over the Russians in numbers.  Manpower is likely also starting to tilt in favor of the Ukrainians.  Morale is totally on their side by this stage. 

The Russians would probably have to at least partly mobilize reserves in order to bring fresh troops and reserve equipment in to guarantee a victory.  They don't seem willing to do that.  They want to win on the cheap and they're stuck on that path now.  Putin can't hide the damage if he mobilizes the reserves, and it'd take months to get them in fighting shape anyway.  This isn't WWI where the European powers had turned mobilization into an art form.  As was said before, we don't even know if the Russian reserve equipment is even combat capable and how much if can ever even be made so again. 

The most dangerous thing for Russia is that they are fighting a "Special Operation" with limited commitment.  Ukraine is fighting their Great Patriotic War with every ounce of their manpower and national will.   That calculus is extremely hard to overcome.

We'll know by May 9.  I imagine whatever scenario exists by then save the complete rout of the Russian Army, Putin will declare victory at May Day. 

The problem for the Russians is that even if they're willing to quit, are the Ukrainians? 

[GDS_Starfury]

seems the soviets are having a problem with fires suddenly.
TsNIIMash, Russian rocket and spacecraft scientific center
The College of Aerospace Engineering and Technology
and supposedly russia's biggest chemical solvents factory

[Gusington]

^Beginnings of a new Russian Revolution?

If Russia pulls out of Ukraine completely then I can't see the Ukrainians invading Russia in return.

That said I can't see the Russians pulling out of Ukraine completely...maybe ever.

[SirAndrewD]

^ I could never see the Ukrainians invade Russia proper.  I could see them fight hard to take back the eastern provinces and Crimea. 

[Gusington]

Maybe some lunatic would want a 'buffer against Russia' and take Belgorod.

[al_infierno]

Probably less pissed off Russians setting fires, and more "we're finally using this sh!t at full capacity for the first time in decades and it's only now becoming apparent that years of skims and kickbacks have reduced maintenance budgets to nil"

[Pete Dero]

^ I could never see the Ukrainians invade Russia proper.

I guess at that moment they would lose the support they have right now and it would make Russia invoke their nuclear doctrine (home country under attack).

Plus they don't have the equipment and manpower to do that.

[al_infierno]

When will wargames add in a "tactical ladder"?   :-"

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/u9n4fo/ukrainian_soldier_shooting_rpg_from_the_ladder/

[Gusington]

^That would be very useful for me.