Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Gusington]

^You paint quite the mental vision.

[Sir Slash]

I saw video of Putin today from the Orthodox Easter Service over the weekend. He looked terrible, constantly wetting his lips with his tongue and quivering around his mouth and lips. This looks very similar to Tardive Dyskinesia, an adverse reaction to taking psychotropic meds for long periods of time. He maybe sicker than we know. Or, sly enough to fake it for some unknown reason. 

[ComradeP]

I'm still not sure it's a good idea to send larger weapon systems that are not part of - or an extension of an earlier deal (such as Bayraktar drones) and not made/designed in the USSR.

Germany's decision to send Gepards seems highly politically motivated and not very practical. Ukrainian troops are unfamiliar with the vehicle, the usual connection to various NATO radar and other tracking systems is missing and munitions can't be produced locally at the moment.

The Dutch government claimed it would send Panzerhaubitze 2000's over, another advanced weapon system which the Ukrainians can't use to maximum effect without various supporting systems. Considering the poor state of the Dutch army, the army isn't enthusiastic about sending the equipment to Ukraine.

The Dutch press did pick up the potential major shift in US policy to grinding the Russian army down instead of assisting Ukraine. I'm not sure whether it's intended for a domestic US audience, but if NATO keeps poking the bear it might lash out.

It seems as if many people involved in higher decision making ignore the chance of nuclear war. I don't share their optimism and haven't shared it since the conflict began.

[Rekim]

Germany's decision to send Gepards seems highly politically motivated and not very practical. Ukrainian troops are unfamiliar with the vehicle, the usual connection to various NATO radar and other tracking systems is missing and munitions can't be produced locally at the moment.

The North Vietnamese received similarly advanced weapon systems (ie. Migs/SAMs) from the Soviet's during the war in Vietnam. From most accounts these systems were quite effective. I know Soviet pilots and advisers were directly involved with support and even operation of these weapons, but guess what..

When this conflict began I was seriously worried about the prospect of it escalating to include EU/NATO countries. Now that nuclear war is being threatened on a near daily basis I'm not sure there is any choice.

[MikeGER]

The German Gepards idea is  more a political trick for to relieve some (inner)political pressure from Kanzler Scholz.
He promised 'heavy weapons' but didn't deliver and there is resistance in his own SPD party to do so which he has  to cope with, while the oposition and part of his coalition want to force him to do it. 

For military uneducated people and journalists Gepard is a "tank" and so it must be  "heavy weapons".
for people who are knowledgeable about weapons system (including those in the Kremlin) know that it is not more of a threat than another chest full of Stingers. Maybe even less, because the Gepard gives away his position, Stinger-teams not.
also, Stingers can be used after a short training, the Gepard needs many weeks in the simulator
(which after 12 years out of service, not many (instructors) will know how to train new soldiers with those stored away sim-equipment)

maybe we send the Ukrainians to Brazil  ;) where Gepard is in regular use.

So Scholz found a strategy to make the pople happy because he will send something "tanky",  and more airdefence is always a morally good thing to sell to the public - isn't it , but without pissing of the Ivan all to much.


     

[ArizonaTank]

I'm still not sure it's a good idea to send larger weapon systems that are not part of - or an extension of an earlier deal (such as Bayraktar drones) and not made/designed in the USSR.

Germany's decision to send Gepards seems highly politically motivated and not very practical. Ukrainian troops are unfamiliar with the vehicle, the usual connection to various NATO radar and other tracking systems is missing and munitions can't be produced locally at the moment.

The Dutch government claimed it would send Panzerhaubitze 2000's over, another advanced weapon system which the Ukrainians can't use to maximum effect without various supporting systems. Considering the poor state of the Dutch army, the army isn't enthusiastic about sending the equipment to Ukraine.

The Dutch press did pick up the potential major shift in US policy to grinding the Russian army down instead of assisting Ukraine. I'm not sure whether it's intended for a domestic US audience, but if NATO keeps poking the bear it might lash out.

It seems as if many people involved in higher decision making ignore the chance of nuclear war. I don't share their optimism and haven't shared it since the conflict began.

I agree that on the surface, it seems that sending weapon types that the Ukrainians are not familiar does not seem practical.

However, I think the coalition is girding for a long war, while also trying to leave the Ukrainian military in a good place when hostilities eventually end. So getting the Ukrainians trained on Western equipment puts them in a better place in a year.

It was also interesting that the meeting that was held on Monday at Ramstein of the 42 nations will be recurring on a monthly basis, until the conflict ends.

Another point is that in time of war, fielding of new equipment does move much, much faster. It is difficult to describe, but being in a war does focus activity tremendously.

As far as the nuclear war part...  I think the US just called Putin's bluff.

[ArizonaTank]

The German Gepards idea is  more a political trick for to relieve some (inner)political pressure from Kanzler Scholz.
He promised 'heavy weapons' but didn't deliver and there is resistance in his own SPD party to do so which he has  to cope with, while the oposition and part of his coalition want to force him to do it. 

For military uneducated people and journalists Gepard is a "tank" and so it must be  "heavy weapons".
for people who are knowledgeable about weapons system (including those in the Kremlin) know that it is not more of a threat than another chest full of Stingers. Maybe even less, because the Gepard gives away his position, Stinger-teams not.
also, Stingers can be used after a short training, the Gepard needs many weeks in the simulator
(which after 12 years out of service, not many (instructors) will know how to train new soldiers with those stored away sim-equipment)

maybe we send the Ukrainians to Brazil  ;) where Gepard is in regular use.

So Scholz found a strategy to make the pople happy because he will send something "tanky",  and more airdefence is always a morally good thing to sell to the public - isn't it , but without pissing of the Ivan all to much.
     

Isn't the German government also considering a request by Rheinmetall to sell 100 Marders and 88 Leopard-Is to Ukraine? That would be meatier than Gepards. Or is that request "dead on arrival?"

[JasonPratt]

I'm going to guess that the idea of Marders and Leopards is an internal political negotiation strategy of some kind. Arguably the Ukraine would not assault someone else's national territory with Gepards (though troops on the ground can certainly find ways to use a pair of fast-shooting cannons for assault purposes, the most famous example perhaps being the American quad halftracks in WW2 Normandy). IFVs for Panzergrenadiers, more assaulty, but less so without actual tanks to grenadier with. Leopards would be the actual tanks. (As a groggy YT video recently put it, analyzing tank warfare again in light of the current war, "Ask not what they can do to the tank; ask rather what the tank can do to them!")

So that's a set of gradient steps, especially if the Geps have SAMs instead of flak per se. These were called "flakpanzers", but that might just be generic mission-type nomenclature now? -- anyway, closer to impossible to invade Russia with anti-air missiles!

Thus perhaps the internal negotiation thinking is along the line of, "Okay, fine, we offered to send some kit which would be really helpful but also, we realize, capable of offensive action, so for the sake of diplomacy we won't do that, we'll only send the flakpanzers, okay?" Offer to send only flakpz, the press/political opposition goes AHH THAT'S A TANK! Cut back an offer that would have included tanks and IFVs, and the press/polit-opp goes, "Oh, okay that's more reasonable. Fine BUT NO TANKS!"

[Pete Dero]

The German Gepards idea is  more a political trick for to relieve some (inner)political pressure from Kanzler Scholz.
He promised 'heavy weapons' but didn't deliver and there is resistance in his own SPD party to do so which he has  to cope with, while the oposition and part of his coalition want to force him to do it. 

For military uneducated people and journalists Gepard is a "tank" and so it must be  "heavy weapons".
for people who are knowledgeable about weapons system (including those in the Kremlin) know that it is not more of a threat than another chest full of Stingers. Maybe even less, because the Gepard gives away his position, Stinger-teams not.
also, Stingers can be used after a short training, the Gepard needs many weeks in the simulator
(which after 12 years out of service, not many (instructors) will know how to train new soldiers with those stored away sim-equipment)

maybe we send the Ukrainians to Brazil  ;) where Gepard is in regular use.

So Scholz found a strategy to make the pople happy because he will send something "tanky",  and more airdefence is always a morally good thing to sell to the public - isn't it , but without pissing of the Ivan all to much.
     

Isn't the German government also considering a request by Rheinmetall to sell 100 Marders and 88 Leopard-Is to Ukraine? That would be meatier than Gepards. Or is that request "dead on arrival?"

https://www.welt.de/regionales/nrw/article238380167/Rheinmetall-will-Leopard-Kampfpanzer-in-die-Ukraine-liefern.html

The Düsseldorf-based armaments group Rheinmetall has offered to deliver 88 used Leopard battle tanks to the Ukraine. This emerges from documents available to the German Press Agency. According to this, the offer also includes crew training in Germany, training for repairs, tools, spare parts, a service base and ammunition.

First, the "Welt" reported on the offer. According to information from the newspaper, approval for the delivery was applied for at the end of last week at the responsible Ministry of Economic Affairs. The federal government has also received another application from Rheinmetall to be allowed to deliver 100 Marder armored personnel carriers to Ukraine for defense against Russia. Government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit said on Monday that a decision would be made "promptly".

According to "Welt", the armaments company Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW) also wants to deliver 100 self-propelled howitzers 2000. The Netherlands also wants to deliver these heavy artillery pieces, which can hit targets at a distance of 40 kilometers, to Ukraine. So far, the federal government has only promised training aid and ammunition for this.

The Leopard tanks are of the Type 1A5, which were built from the early 1960s and used by the Bundeswehr until 2003. The company wants to deliver the first copies within a few weeks. The costs are estimated at 115 million euros.

The direct delivery of tanks from Germany to Ukraine is controversial in the coalition. SPD leader Saskia Esken expressed skepticism about this on Monday. The question of direct supplies by German industry is currently out of the question because the tanks produced cannot be used directly, she said. The soldiers in Ukraine are not yet familiar with the weapon systems. "It takes long training and long training." For maintenance and repairs, spare parts "that we cannot supply" and fitters are also needed.

[Pete Dero]

So that's a set of gradient steps, especially if the Geps have SAMs instead of flak per se. These were called "flakpanzers", but that might just be generic mission-type nomenclature now? -- anyway, closer to impossible to invade Russia with anti-air missiles!

The Gepard can be upgraded with Stinger missiles. Many are still parked at German defense company Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, which has signaled interest in refurbishing the vehicles and selling them to Ukraine.

However, one potential problem could be Switzerland, a key supplier of ammunition for the Gepard, as the country banned the export of such ammo to Ukraine.

[JasonPratt]

If I understood that correctly, it's Rheinmetall which initiated the offer to send/sell (spare?) units?

That looks like RM trying to score political/promotional points while getting rid of unsold stock. ;)

[GDS_Starfury]

The Düsseldorf-based armaments group Rheinmetall has offered to deliver 88 used Leopard battle tanks to the Ukraine.

88... someone picked that number on purpose to fuck with the soviets!

However, one potential problem could be Switzerland, a key supplier of ammunition for the Gepard, as the country banned the export of such ammo to Ukraine.

pretty sure its the Marder ammo that comes from Switzerland.
well fuck, its both
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swiss-veto-german-request-re-export-ammunition-ukraine-paper-2022-04-24/
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/swiss-veto-german-request-re-export-tank-ammunition-ukraine-2022-04-26/

[Pete Dero]

pretty sure its the Marder ammo that comes from Switzerland.
well fuck, its both
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swiss-veto-german-request-re-export-ammunition-ukraine-paper-2022-04-24/
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/swiss-veto-german-request-re-export-tank-ammunition-ukraine-2022-04-26/

They make a lot of ammo for a neutral country.

[JasonPratt]

Selling to all sides is the positive essence of neutrality!

So long as any side meets the strict qualifying criteria, of course.

[Gusington]

Heh I really do wonder if 88 was picked on purpose.