Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

Summarizing the conclusion sections at the end of Bergstrom's Black Cross/Red Star series...

...and just like that, I have a new series to buy! -- and possibly perhaps read someday!  :D :hide:

[FarAway Sooner]

Summarizing the conclusion sections at the end of Bergstrom's Black Cross/Red Star series, he estimates that is Russia during '41 and '42, the Germans overclaimed air to air kills at slightly less than a 2:1 rate while the Soviets overclaimed kills at about a 3:1 rate.  He used German losses according to german records and compared them to Soviet losses from soviet records.

Yeah, that aligns with what Wikipedia tells us.  I think the German exaggeration rate expanded dramatically in the last year or two of the war, probably for reasons we can all imagine.  All sides exaggerate their kill totals, but Truth-seeking is not a virtue that's celebrated in authoritarian regimes that are faring poorly...

[GDS_Starfury]

[Dammit Carl!]

Summarizing the conclusion sections at the end of Bergstrom's Black Cross/Red Star series...

...and just like that, I have a new series to buy! -- and possibly perhaps read someday!  :D :hide:

Lucky to stumble across Mr. Bergstrom's Operation Barbarossa in a used book store lately. Beautiful book.

[JasonPratt]

So, keeping in mind the qualification that a BTG may not be up to full strength compared to any other BTGs, and that any total -- especially large ones -- is proportionately likely to involve reserves not front-line BTGs...

...that map looks like the push is for acquiring and consolidating Donbas breakaway region westward hinterlands (expanding the breakaway 'republics' westward), and NOT for pushing along the south coast toward Romania to cut off Ukraine from all coastal access. Or not yet; if that's the plan, gaining territory west of the breakaway region capitals comes first.

[MengJiao]

So, keeping in mind the qualification that a BTG may not be up to full strength compared to any other BTGs, and that any total -- especially large ones -- is proportionately likely to involve reserves not front-line BTGs...

...that map looks like the push is for acquiring and consolidating Donbas breakaway region westward hinterlands (expanding the breakaway 'republics' westward), and NOT for pushing along the south coast toward Romania to cut off Ukraine from all coastal access. Or not yet; if that's the plan, gaining territory west of the breakaway region capitals comes first.

  Yep.  Looks like 81 or so in the center (Donbas) and 12 or so on the flanks...seems like the main effort is in the Donbas, so the Russians might just declare victory there and try to end the war like
that and be very upset if Ukraine starts pushing them back.

[ArizonaTank]

Belarus has begun large scale "readiness" drills.

Maybe just a head fake to keep Ukraine on the defensive in the north, or Putin has called in his chips, and the Belarussians have to jump in. Is this timed to synch with the rumors of a May 9th declaration of war on Ukraine? 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-ally-belarus-launches-military-quick-response-drills/ar-AAWUWYV?ocid=uxbndlbing

[Gusington]

^If this is real hopefully they will perform just as well as their Russian masters.

[Windigo]

^If this is real hopefully they will perform just as well as their Russian masters.

With all the intel available from the West to Ukraine, it won't be a surprise attack at all.

It would be a dangerous precedent for Russia to set, pulling an ally into the fight.

I wonder what Poland would think of this all?

[JasonPratt]

'39 Poland, or '22 Poland?  ::)

[Gusington]

1920 Poland would probably be the best answer.

[JasonPratt]

^^ Well played! 

[MengJiao]

Belarus has begun large scale "readiness" drills.

  They might do better brushing up on their Black Magic (or is that some kind of perfume?)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-media-accuse-ukraine-of-using-black-magic-as-invasion-falters/ar-AAWVkD6?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=ed41cd4ca26e4e3fb5c22d85a3bd1b05

[Gusington]

^I know I'll regret saying this but I have now seen it all.

[Pete Dero]

^I know I'll regret saying this but I have now seen it all.

This might explain the latest Russian 'news' items.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, noted on Twitter that a haul of cocaine had been confiscated in Estonia last month while en route to Russia. "It seems the cocaine shortage has forced employees of the Foreign Ministry to switch to something heavier," he said.