Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

for a lot of reason I hope that the commies parade goes off without any serious problems.
Im fine with armatas catching fire again.

[GDS_Starfury]

oh fuck!  Gus is going to fight in the Ukraine!

[Gusington]

Haha are those kneepads??

[GDS_Starfury]

yes

[Gusington]

Nice I'll take 4 sets.

[JasonPratt]

I don't see how there can be any subs in the Black Sea that aren't either Russian or Turkish. The only way for any water craft to get to the Black Sea from the Sea of Marmara is via the Bosporus which is a narrow, winding water way that runs through Istanbul. [etc.]

1.) Mostly I was thinking of Turkish subs.

2.) But I didn't want to discount the idea that Turkey might have allowed passage before the war (at night under security etc.) as a NATO member.

[JasonPratt]

oh fuck!  Gus is going to fight in the Ukraine!

Hm. Well, that doesn't look like a seal, but it does look horrifying! -- imagine having that attacking you by surprise at night!  :bd:

[JasonPratt]

for a lot of reason I hope that the commies parade goes off without any serious problems.

Saw a quick headline today (didn't have time to read the whole thing) indicating no problems with the VDay parade, no declaration of war (yet). If (real, official) mobilization has started, no overt indications yet.

https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-victory-day-speech-doesnt-escalate-ukraine-war-west-warned-2022-5?inline-endstory-related-recommendations=

Hackers did prank the schedule for the parade however: https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-victory-day-tv-broadcasts-hacked-anti-war-messages-2022-5

[JasonPratt]

I don't have a link to the New Day interview on CNN per se, but RawStory (via MSN) has an interesting summary of analysis by retired BrigGen Steven Anderson this morning: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-s-invasion-is-a-dismal-failure-and-reality-is-sinking-in-for-him-retired-general/ar-AAX4ghr?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=0ec4c723539b4bac9a60deb67dd8b608

Salient quotes from the brief summary article:

"What stood out to me was that nothing stood out," Anderson replied. "Essentially there was no new declaration of war. There was no mobilization. And I think that Vladimir Putin is starting to realize that he can't achieve his objectives militarily."

"He's essentially 0 for 3," he continued. "He started on the 24th of February with the blitzkrieg, then he attacked the city of Kyiv and that was a dismal failure. Now he's in east Donbas, and looking increasingly like he's losing there too. Reality is sinking in."

"What's going on is Ukrainians are taking it to the Russians," he later added.

[Windigo]

Putin needs an out, otherwise he is just going to keep doubling down (general mobilization). Power corrupts and with his ego and vision of a reborn empire he is unlikely to take defeat as an option.

The Ukraine is no Chechnya, it has western ties, a vision for the future as an independent nation and an admirable democratic model. The people of Ukraine will not let that go and now they have a substantive reason to hate Russians.
Threat of nukes or not, what Putin started the Ukraine will finish. Crimea will be in Ukraine hands - unless there is a diplomatic compromise.

[MengJiao]

Putin needs an out, otherwise he is just going to keep doubling down (general mobilization). Power corrupts and with his ego and vision of a reborn empire he is unlikely to take defeat as an option.

The Ukraine is no Chechnya, it has western ties, a vision for the future as an independent nation and an admirable democratic model. The people of Ukraine will not let that go and now they have a substantive reason to hate Russians.
Threat of nukes or not, what Putin started the Ukraine will finish. Crimea will be in Ukraine hands - unless there is a diplomatic compromise.

  It's weird but so far, Putin seems to have picked the least workable option for dealing with Ukraine every time.  Right now he should say it was a preemptive war to protect Crimea and DNK and LNK and let the war wind down -- giving whatever concessions he can to hold on to as much as possible for as long as possible.  It seems likely that sooner or later the Russians will have to get out of most (if not all) of Ukraine.  Better to stop now and play for time -- but no -- I'm sure he'll just keep banging away in the Donbas and shooting missiles at Odessa because that's the most absurd thing to do.  Will he keep that up until his armies are destroyed?  Probably.

[Windigo]

As an aside, I found John Spenser's "Mini-Manual for the Urban Defender" and gave it a quick glance.
It seems the Ukraine's have taken it to heart.

[al_infierno]

[JasonPratt]

^ Wow... I have to wonder at the process that got those there. Laziness? Complacent fraud (any good looking photos will do)? Lack of anything similarly worthwhile from the Soviets? (I doubt that personally.) Or... perhaps a quiet protest by some archivists?

Or maybe there's a problem showing the multiple looted watches on arms of Soviet soldiers if you blow up the photos that large, and trying to scrub them out just blurs the images too much and they look weird.  ::)

(This is a real problem for the famous Soviet flag being unfurled over Berlin, by the way: the original is usually cropped so that the soldier lower down can't be seen with his forearms covered with looted watches.)

[JasonPratt]

Putin needs an out, otherwise he is just going to keep doubling down (general mobilization). Power corrupts and with his ego and vision of a reborn empire he is unlikely to take defeat as an option.

He may indeed have plans for mobilization but is unwilling to announce it out loud before he starts. His Soviet forebears had a habit of secretly setting up army and front headquarters and mobilizing universal conscription etc.

Personally, I haven't gotten the impression he has enough logistics for a general mobilization; he barely had enough for deploying his standing army plus drafted recruits. Mobilization, ironically, might be the fatal knockout blow in itself for the Russian kleptocracy: Russia's government wouldn't survive all the cascading knock-on effects.