Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Sir Slash]

Damn! Carl packs a punch.  :o

[SirAndrewD]

Damn! Carl packs a punch.  :o

He does.  But to be fair right now it looks like if you sneeze in the direction of a T 72/80/90 it explodes.

That's why they're not using their dozen T-14's.  It doesn't even need a sneeze.

[FarAway Sooner]

Taking the video at face value (always a dubious thing on the internet these days...): 

That whole "stowing a couple shells in the turret" thing does theoretically improve your rate of fire.  But apparently only until you're hit by an 84mm anti-tank rifle designed 75 years ago...

[W8taminute]

Insulting the orcs/orks, or insulting the fascists, hmm.... why not both?!  <:-)

Incidentally, while I don't usually play the orcs on LotR games (unless randomly assigned), I do often play the orks in WH40K.

Haha!  That's why we make a good team in Dawn of War. 

But back on topic.  I heard the Russians made a nuclear threat against the US because we helped the UKR kill the Moskva.

[JasonPratt]

That reminds me, we haven't played DoW in a while; I'm finishing the Soulstorm campaign (for the first time I think?), so I'm up to speed on practice, sort of, at least as the Eldar. (I've also updated the UltApoc mod recently. This may or may not indicate I'm plotting Season Two of Dawn of Armageddon, who knows? ;) )

Anyway, hit me up when you're on Steam sometime, for some DoW while I'm back into it.  8)

[JasonPratt]

Meanwhile, Fobes (via MSN) reports that an independent journalist has spotted the Makarov healthy -- and hiding near Sevastapol.  >:D

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-journalist-just-spotted-russia-s-admiral-makarov-frigate-intact-and-at-sea/ar-AAX4Yy1?pc=U531&cvid=eacefe1cb7b842cb8c6ac97cf09de2ca

(The photo is from stock; Sutton used commercially available satellite imagery.)

[JasonPratt]

The Wall Street Journal (also via MSN) gives a fuller picture of the Victory Day parade and Putin's speech:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-uses-russia-s-victory-day-parade-to-justify-invasion-of-ukraine/ar-AAX4jkt?pc=U531&cvid=eacefe1cb7b842cb8c6ac97cf09de2ca

Naturally, Zelensky had something pithy to say before the parade, considering that the Ukraine also celebrates V-Day against the Nazis: "Very soon, there will be two Victory Days in Ukraine, and someone won't have any."  >:D

I think this technically and formally counts as 'chutzpah'.

[GDS_Starfury]

actually watch the two speeches Pratt, the difference is striking.

[MengJiao]

Meanwhile, Fobes (via MSN) reports that an independent journalist has spotted the Makarov healthy -- and hiding near Sevastapol.  >:D

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-journalist-just-spotted-russia-s-admiral-makarov-frigate-intact-and-at-sea/ar-AAX4Yy1?pc=U531&cvid=eacefe1cb7b842cb8c6ac97cf09de2ca

(The photo is from stock; Sutton used commercially available satellite imagery.)

   There were three frigates of that class in the Black Sea.  Seeing one that is "healthy" (afloat and not noticiably damaged) suggests two may be at the bottom of the sea, though I suspect
these particular frigates are more capable of protecting themselves than any other ships currently in the Black Sea.

[Tripoli]

Meanwhile, Fobes (via MSN) reports that an independent journalist has spotted the Makarov healthy -- and hiding near Sevastapol.  >:D

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-journalist-just-spotted-russia-s-admiral-makarov-frigate-intact-and-at-sea/ar-AAX4Yy1?pc=U531&cvid=eacefe1cb7b842cb8c6ac97cf09de2ca

(The photo is from stock; Sutton used commercially available satellite imagery.)

Jason-Thanks for the link.  While debunking the claim that the Makarov was hit, [Addendum: MengJiao correctly notes the Russians have 3 of the class in the Black Sea so it is possible that Sutton's analysis was incorrect IRT the Makarov.  However, the article seems to indicate that Sutton did a ship count, so he may in fact be correct about the Makarov.]  the article notes that based on where the Russian fleet was found, the Russians may have actually lost command of the sea.  This is not to say that The Ukrainians have command of the sea.  Rather, it indicates the Black Sea is contested (possibly analogous to the Solomon Islands in August-October 1942?)  If true, this means that the Russians (at least for now) will be unable to threaten the coastline with amphibious operations.  This is turn will free up Ukrainian resources for their main offensive effort (which is coming, I believe).

From the article:
"But it's worth noting where Sutton found Admiral Makarov on or before Monday: sailing near Sevastopol in the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula. In other words, close to home.

Indeed, Sutton narrowed the locations of most of the underway Black Sea Fleet to a narrow swathe of ocean off the west coast of Crimea. Just two ships—a landing craft and one unidentified vessel—were near Snake Island, the current locus of naval combat between Ukraine and Russia.

...

But it's clearer than ever that the Kremlin is reluctant to risk these ships, even though the Ukrainian navy, having scuttled its flagship frigate in Odesa, no longer has a single large vessel. No, Kyiv's drones and missiles are the threats. And they're significant ones."

[MengJiao]

The Wall Street Journal (also via MSN) gives a fuller picture of the Victory Day parade and Putin's speech:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-uses-russia-s-victory-day-parade-to-justify-invasion-of-ukraine/ar-AAX4jkt?pc=U531&cvid=eacefe1cb7b842cb8c6ac97cf09de2ca

Naturally, Zelensky had something pithy to say before the parade, considering that the Ukraine also celebrates V-Day against the Nazis: "Very soon, there will be two Victory Days in Ukraine, and someone won't have any."  >:D

I think this technically and formally counts as 'chutzpah'.

  But maybe that's all academic cuz Russia says they do not want a war in Europe (or any more Black Magic etc. etc. etc.):

  Russia does not want war in Europe, its foreign minister says
From CNN's Katharina Krebs in London

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia does not want a continent-wide war in Europe, but added a note of caution surrounding the intentions surrounding the Western governments supporting Ukraine.

"If you are concerned about the prospect of war in Europe, we absolutely do not want this, but I draw your attention to the fact that West constantly insists that Russia must be defeated in this situation. Draw your own conclusions," Lavrov said.

  The obvious conclusion is that the Russians have pushed senseless statements beyond the point of total absurdity.  How can the Russians reasonably say they "Don't want a war" when
when they have been conducting one for months?  How is the fact that "the West" wants them to stop a reason to continue if they really don't want a war?  The only reasonable answer
for the Russians is to accept defeat and stop the war.  The fact that the people under attack are resisting more or less successfully with support is a reason to stop, not a reason to continue.

  And, by the way, I think the statements about how US intel is helping Ukraine are meant to have a deterrent effect on the Russians.  Obviously at some level such deterrence works
by simply destroying what you hoped the deterred would stop using, but overall, it is hard to judge since one aspect of deterrence is that you hope the targets of deterrence are able
to grasp that they ought to be deterred for their own good.  Of course sometimes deterrence fails if the targets of deterrence "miscalculate" (or however you want to phrase your
characterization of what looks like pure folly and total lameness and absolute idiocy).

[MengJiao]

  And, by the way, I think the statements about how US intel is helping Ukraine are meant to have a deterrent effect on the Russians.  Obviously at some level such deterrence works
by simply destroying what you hoped the deterred would stop using, but overall, it is hard to judge since one aspect of deterrence is that you hope the targets of deterrence are able
to grasp that they ought to be deterred for their own good.  Of course sometimes deterrence fails if the targets of deterrence "miscalculate" (or however you want to phrase your
characterization of what looks like pure folly and total lameness and absolute idiocy).

  And it seems the Ukrainians are blasting the Russians pretty massively at times:

Ukrainians eliminate at least 2 pontoon bridges near Bilohorivka, satellite and drone images show
From CNN's Paul P. Murphy, Tim Lister, Gianluca Mezzofiore and Katie Polglase

The Ukrainians have — twice in the last 24 hours — stopped Russians efforts to cross the Siverskyi Donets River in the Luhansk oblast, blowing up two pontoon bridges near Bilohorivka.

A satellite image collected by geospatial intelligence firm BlackSky shows a Russian pontoon bridge crossing the river on May 10 shortly after a Ukrainian artillery barrage hit the surrounding area.

Smoke is seen rising from the western shore of the Siverskyi Donets River at one end of the bridge. On the eastern bank, craters and smoke are also seen on the eastern shore, including around Russian military vehicles that crossed over.

Grainy drone video circulating on social media, geolocated and its authenticity verified by CNN, shows the aftermath of the strikes. The military strikes destroyed the bridge, which is seen half-sunk in the river.

Additional photos circulating on social media, also taken by a drone, show the Russians tried to erect a second pontoon bridge across the river. That bridge, too, was blown up by the Ukrainians in addition to a number of military vehicles. 

Traversing Ukraine's topography — specifically its rivers — has repeatedly proven a logistical nightmare that's hampered Russian military advances for weeks, across numerous parts of Ukraine. In more remote areas, or in places that bridges have been blown up, they have resorted to utilizing pontoon bridges.

These bridges have repeatedly been targeted and blown up by Ukrainian forces.

CNN has previously reported the bridge first appeared on May 8.

Serhiy Hayday, the Luhansk regional military administrator, said on Wednesday that the Russians are continuing to try to construct bridges across the Siverskyi Donets River. He also said that the Ukrainians have repeatedly blown them up. 

[FarAway Sooner]

I wonder whether either side is allowing third-country journalists anywhere near the fighting?  All we get these days are video clips that might as well be from a 4K RTS game. 

I know next to nothing about Russian engineering brigade competence, but I have to think that, unless they're able to shut down the threat of Ukrainian drones, trying to push lots of supplies across pontoon bridges will be an uphill battle. 

In the Western Europe breakout in 1944, how much success did the Allies have pushing supplies over pontoon bridges?  Obviously, they had the advantage of total air superiority, such that their own pontoon bridges were more secure once they cleared out the surrounding countryside.  But I have no idea how fragile they are, or how much daily tonnage they can pass over compared to a standard-construction road bridge.

Can you drive an MBT across a modern pontoon bridge?  We must have somebody on this board who served in an engineering brigade somewhere in the last 40 years...

[GDS_Starfury]

the Eastern Front is chock full of bridge building during all types of battle.  theres more then one account of soviets driving t34s into rivers and drowning them to form a foundation for the bridge.

the russians got 100% trashed today at a pontoon bridge.
6x T-72B-series MBT, 14x BMP-1/2 variants, 7x MT-LB, a tugboat & 5+ other armoured vehicles destroyed/abandoned/damaged.
thats a pretty hard fail!









there are also a few chinese press covering the war.  in fact todays turret throw champion was covered by such a reporter.
heres the toss:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1524351169166024707

[Dammit Carl!]

Jesus.