Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Uberhaus]

I do like the sound of my own typing.  Pop psychology anyone? When our esteemed resident grogheads psychiatric nurse made the astute observation of tardive dyskinesia (involuntary muscle movements caused by drugs, especially psychiatric medications) in Putin, I started to speculate if he had been a stimulants abuser.  Not much info on intel services using stimulants, kgb and amphetamines search is a dead end, however, militaries have readily used them such as benzedrine (mix of amphetamines) and nazis are infamous for using pervitin, methamphetamine in military and throughout society.  :o. Only example of use by int I know of is Ian Fleming having Bond consume benzedrine regularly.  Amp abuse can explain TD, paranoia and aggresion, however, a better fit is steroid abuse.
https://www.saltwire.com/atlantic-canada/opinion/gwynne-dyer-is-vladimir-putins-questionable-state-of-mind-and-decision-making-impacted-by-a-worrisome-addiction-100701407/. An annecdote from Gwynne Dyer but he quotes Lord Owen. 

So he invaded. Three days later I heard Lord David Owen, former U.K. secretary of state for foreign affairs — but also an experienced medical doctor trained in neurology and psychology, telling Radio London that he had spotted the same puffiness as Tina in Putin's face and had reached the same conclusion. But he then went a bit farther.

"Look at his face, see how that has changed," Owen said. "He now has an oval face. People said 'Oh, it's plastic surgery or Botox,' but I don't believe that at all. He's on either anabolic steroids as a bodybuilder — and he's very proud of his muscles and strips to the waist and everything like that — or he's on corticosteroids.

"If you're on these drugs, they give you this face. They reduce your immunity and make you more vulnerable to Covid. This man has been in complete isolation, quite extraordinary, won't see anybody, stays miles away, tremendous pressures. Which indicates he's on a steroid and probably, maybe, a combination of both."

Speculation on my part, if he has abused steroids, they do cause cancer.  Circumstantially, performance enhancing drugs are well known as an issue in Russia.  The tale of the losing Russian national hockey team and Putin's displeasure after they declined his offer of enhancement comes to mind.
If, big if, he has developed cancer and is taking prednisone, lookout.  If you will allow me another anecdote, ex-Colonel Russell Williams, double murderer and serial rapist, used his prescription of prednisone in his legal defence.  I'm glad I never handled it.
Would be very happy to hear from real medicos about these theories.
Anyway, I'm probably full of it.
Out

[Uberhaus]

this is important.
Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed the railway bridge between Severodonetsk and Rubizhne.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1525899280426352640

Giving ground in the area? Or preparing a counter-offensive?

Me again.
From ISW May 15 campaign assessment.  https://www.understandingwar.org/

May 15, 2022 - Press ISW

Russian forces have likely abandoned the objective of completing a large-scale encirclement of Ukrainian units from Donetsk City to Izyum in favor of completing the seizure of Luhansk Oblast. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai said that the Russian military command likely understands that it will not be able to seize Donetsk Oblast but believes that it has the capacity to reach the administrative borders of Luhansk Oblast. His observations are generally consistent with our analysis. The Russian military command will likely prioritize the Battle of Severodonetsk going forward, with some efforts dedicated to disrupting Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in eastern Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces are continuing a coordinated effort to seize Severodonetsk from the north and the south, which would result in a shallower encirclement of Ukrainian troops than originally expected. The failed Russian attempts to cross the Siverskyi Donets River near Kreminna may shift Russian encirclement operations further east, closer to Severodonetsk via Rubizhne, rather than conducting a wider encirclement along multiple axes. Russian forces have also likely been scaling down advances to Slovyansk from Izyum, possibly due to the slow pace of the offensive operation there.

[JasonPratt]

Russia: We will take all Ukraine!
Ukraine: No.

R: So, we will take Kiev, all Donbas, and all south coast!
U: No.

R: So, we will take all Donbas and all south coast!
U: No.

R: So, um, we will take all Donbas and north of Crimea!
U: No.

R: ...so, we will take all Donbas!
U: No.

R: {sighs} so.... ..... ....we, uh... we take all of half of Donbas...?
U: {simultaneously glares and rolls eyes in Ukrainian}

[Gusington]

Word on the street is that Turkey is going to veto Finland and Sweden joining NATO...reading that in BBC right now.

[jamus34]

Word on the street is that Turkey is going to veto Finland and Sweden joining NATO...reading that in BBC right now.

I have the translation in Turkish

"We will veto them joining unless you sell us advanced military hardware that we can then sell to non-NATO members"

[GDS_Starfury]

this is a post from Igor Girkin who was the Minister of Defence of the Donetsk People's Republic.
so it was written from the other side of the wire.

[al_infierno]

Word on the street is that Turkey is going to veto Finland and Sweden joining NATO...reading that in BBC right now.

Reddit coming in with the white-hot meme response.   :hide:

[MengJiao]

Word on the street is that Turkey is going to veto Finland and Sweden joining NATO...reading that in BBC right now.

I have the translation in Turkish

"We will veto them joining unless you sell us advanced military hardware that we can then sell to non-NATO members"

  I imagine that's just one of their aims.  Of course, they have been selling their own drones to non-NATO members like Ukraine and they have the S-400 air defense and they haven't sold that
to anyone.  Last I heard they just wanted more F-16s since they were cut out of the F-35 deals.  They probably figure the F-16 is enough to deal with anything they might face from Iran or Greece or Russia or whoever.  Moreover, just by closing the straits they've done about as much to impede the Russians as most NATO members.

[MengJiao]

this is a post from Igor Girkin who was the Minister of Defence of the Donetsk People's Republic.
so it was written from the other side of the wire.

  So he figures the Russians will have to support his regime even more now that there's going to be decades of trench warfare.  I imagine he will be surprised in a few months when Russia throws in the
towel and calls the UN to supervise the mess in his little separatist enclave.  -- And by the way, what's happening in Transtnitria?  The separatist sliver of Moldova with a Russian regiment stuck in there?  They
blew up their own radio tower and shot an RPG or two at something in downtown Tarbusti (?) and nobody cared.  The Donetsk People's Republic is going to be having the same problems soon (as in nobody will care even when they blow up their own stuff to show they need help).

[GDS_Starfury]

very very interesting.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1526293852704890882

[GDS_Starfury]

am I alone in thinking that this war will define the next 50 years of geopolitics?

[ArizonaTank]

am I alone in thinking that this war will define the next 50 years of geopolitics?

You are not alone... O0

[MikeGER]

....let's say hallo to a new guy to our hobby, the armchair general Vlad  ;)

Vladimir Putin has become so personally involved in the Ukraine war that he is making operational and tactical decisions "at the level of a colonel or brigadier", according to western military sources.

source:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/16/putin-involved-russia-ukraine-war-western-sources?CMP=share_btn_tw

[Gusington]

That reminds me of someone.

[jamus34]

That reminds me of someone.

And it didn't exactly work out great for him, either.