Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

[Gusington]

That article on the last page also mentioned an attempt on Putin's life two months ago...

[Dammit Carl!]

Holy font-size, Batman!

[JasonPratt]

Font-size is acceptable to these eyes. ....wait, why don't we have an 'old' smiley yet?!?

I'm more curious about the analysis source. Is there more where that came from? (Seems like good analysis, just curious.)

[Tripoli]

Font-size is acceptable to these eyes. ....wait, why don't we have an 'old' smiley yet?!?

I'm more curious about the analysis source. Is there more where that came from? (Seems like good analysis, just curious.)

Jason-The article you asked about is from the ISW webpage.  https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-28.  It is a good site. 

[al_infierno]

[Dammit Carl!]

Sounds like it's crazytown on the Russian side.

Oh no. :)

[Gusington]

The Russians must be maintaining some kind of battlefield fear/discipline of their own troops with the Spetznaz mentioned and 'political officers.'

[al_infierno]

There's a whole YT channel of intercepted Russian conversations, no commentary or anything, just subtitles:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqo741VN2OBPQAc5hR4oKPg

[FarAway Sooner]

I'm assuming that nobody really has any idea how Russian and Ukrainian casualties compare in East Ukraine?  We hear lots of anecdotal evidence of poor Russian morale.  Are we still seeing signs of that in the Russian conduct of war?

[Jarhead0331]

I'm assuming that nobody really has any idea how Russian and Ukrainian casualties compare in East Ukraine?  We hear lots of anecdotal evidence of poor Russian morale.  Are we still seeing signs of that in the Russian conduct of war?

Yes.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 30

May 30, 3:30pm ET

Mounting casualties among Russian junior officers will likely further degrade Russian capabilities and lead to further morale breakdowns. The UK Ministry of Defense stated on May 30 that Russian forces have suffered devastating losses amongst mid and junior ranking officers. The UK MoD reported that battalion and brigade level officers continue to deploy forwards and into harm's way—rather than commanding from rear areas and delegating to lower-ranking officers—due to senior Russian officers holding them to an "uncompromising level of responsibility" for their units.[1] The British Defense Ministry further reported that junior officers are in charge of low-level tactical operations due to a lack of professionalism and modernization within the Russian Armed Forces and that the continued losses of these junior officers will complicate command and control efforts, particularly in Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) cobbled together from the survivors of multiple other units.[2] ISW previously assessed that continued demoralization and poor command and control among Russian forces could present Ukrainian forces opportunities to conduct prudent counteroffensives, particularly as the Russian military continues to pour resources into the battle of Severodonetsk at the cost of other lines of effort.

[JasonPratt]

I have some suspicions from the terms used that that intercept is really legit, though it does conform to the idea mentioned later in JH's report that high-level commanders are going forward to be 'uncompromisingly responsible' for frontline action. (A Colonel-General should be in command of a corps, not of a company, or even of a battalion. But they might be in charge of brigades at this point. Perhaps there are translation/terminology difficulties...?)

Also, does "Solodchuk" really sound like something equivalent to "scumchuck" in Russian?? Maybe that should have been "Sodchuck" since that British term is well-known around the world, and the woman calls him a faggot shortly afterward.

I do like the channel though. 

[Pete Dero]

Also, does "Solodchuk" really sound like something equivalent to "scumchuck" in Russian?? Maybe that should have been "Sodchuck" since that British term is well-known around the world, and the woman calls him a faggot shortly afterward.

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/05/30/russian-general-almost-killed-by-his-own-men-who-refused-to-fight/

Russian General Valeriy Solodchuk was almost killed by his own men after forcing them to fight according to intercepted calls by the Ukraine Security Service.

The news of the Russian General was posted by the Ukraine Security Service on Monday, May, 30 on Twitter.


https://gur.gov.ua/en/content/heneral-maior-zs-rf-solodchuk-valerii-mykolaiovych.html

Deputy Commander of the 5th Army (Usuriisk) of the Eastern Military District (Khabarovsk) of the Russian Armed Forces.

[JasonPratt]

Okay, so historically based on an adventure by Sodchuck anyway.  >:D

[Pete Dero]

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russias-army-could-collapse-amid-27102204

A secretive analysis of the invasion says Russian President Vladimir Putin believes losses of 30,350 troops so far are a "price worth paying" for a small victory in Ukraine.

But the new report - seen by senior UK government officials and written by a top UK analyst on Russia warns Putin's blood sacrifice may be a step too far for his troops.
Today Moscow's troops entered the city of Sievierodonetsk sparking fierce fighting in the ruins of the latest concentration of Russian violence against its neighbour.

Fresh figures revealed Russia's latest suspected losses in weaponry are 207 warplanes destroyed, along with 174 helicopters, 1349 tanks and 13 boats.
The report suggests Kremlin figures have tried in vain to persuade Putin his invasion is a catastrophe but that the President believes he can still win a "partial victory."

The analysis, given to the Mirror, does not believe that failure in Ukraine to even win outright in Donbas will lead to Putin ordering a nuclear strike.
But it does suggest the Russian leader has convinced himself that a victory in contested Donbas is now in sight and will give him huge leverage against Kyiv.
And failure would result in him being deposed.