Russia's War Against Ukraine

[MengJiao]

I don't think it's contrarian at all...it's the truth about what is going on in the East. Ukraine can't hold off Russia forever if Russia is determined to destroy Ukraine, even with Western help...short of an all out intervention. And both Putin and Zelenskyy know that.

   I think the basic calculus is more elaborate: true, in a perfect world, Russia would eventually overwhelm Ukraine, BUT a) Russia cannot commit everything to overwhelming Ukraine while Ukraine can totally commit to breaking the Russian army (in fact they have no choice in the matter) b) the collateral loses to Russia are already immense  c) Given how much the world depends on Russian oil and gas, a brutally simple solution presents itself: defeat Russia as fast as possible so that things renormalize as fast as possible since letting Russia fool around (as apparently they expect to do) is a much less attractive option than forcing a complete defeat (ie force Russia to get out of Ukraine completely and restore normal relations with the world).  Waiting around while Russia pretends to win it all for decades just doesn't seem like a serious option.  Hence the strong possibility that forcing a defeat on Russia as quickly as possible is probably the best overall solution for everyone (including the Russians).  Anyway, I'd say its at least possible that Russia cannot overwhelm Ukraine at all and it seems likely that Zelensky at least can see that (as can NATO and company).  Moreover, Turkey and NATO are irrelevant if
Ukraine can break the Russian army.  Moreover, it seems like China can already see this ( as seen in no help for Russia at all and meetings on defense with the US for example).

[Gusington]

How much pain can Russia take before it goes to the negotiating table? Or lashes out with nukes?

[JasonPratt]

At this point, playing Devil's Advocate, Russia's best chance would seem to be to draw Ukrainian forces into a focused slow-defense meatgrinder with mutually reinforcing and supporting Russian fronts. First with an iron hand crush the enemy, then you can do what you want with their resources and means of production. Ukraine MUST commit to fighting all out, as much as it can, and that drains them faster than Russia -- IF Russia can control the tempo of battle in a loss-efficient way.

So far Russia (for many many reasons) hasn't been able to do that, but they're sorrrrt of getting their ducks in a row now. Too late to force a win by attrition? Maybe, but that's the last remaining (conventional) option.

Even then, I have some doubts that Russia has enough logistic stability or even power to drive a BTG unopposed from the northeast side of Ukraine to the Romanian border (for example). Much less to keep a fight going steadily, even against fragmented partisan remnants.

.....only cancer can save Russia now!  <:-) :hide:

(Incidentally, Putin was in the US for cancer treatment in April? Wow... more than a month after invading?!?)

[Gusington]

^WHAT?? Is that true?

[al_infierno]

(Incidentally, Putin was in the US for cancer treatment in April? Wow... more than a month after invading?!?)

Huh?  Source?

[Pete Dero]

(Incidentally, Putin was in the US for cancer treatment in April? Wow... more than a month after invading?!?)

Huh?  Source?

^WHAT?? Is that true?

I think this is a case of misreading a title : 'Vladimir Putin had cancer treatment in April US report says'.

[Gusington]

^Ah.

[JasonPratt]

No, I am sure it was a case of me hearing someone on a podcast talking about it, while I was busy playing video games. 

[JasonPratt]

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-putin-treated-cancer-april-us-intelligence-report-says-1710357

Lots of info at the Newsweek article which broke the story in America.

[SirAndrewD]

The Putin cancer thing was one of the little elements my insider buddy who I'm doing some work for was telling me back in January that I didn't share. 

It's a significant part of all this. 

[Gusington]

Can your buddy tell the cancer to get moving and pick up the pace?

[GDS_Starfury]

still hoping for the bunker option.  :bd:

[JasonPratt]

C'mon, Putin, pick a mistress and get to it!

The "Downfall" memes on Putin's problems must be epic by now. I recall seeing that earlier one, where the best line near the beginning (the officer in the hallway with the lady) was, "Don't believe that, it's only Nazi propaganda." -- delivered by the Nazi.

[SirAndrewD]

Can your buddy tell the cancer to get moving and pick up the pace?

From what I understand he may not need to.

[Staggerwing]

What do you all bet if Putin snuffs it that whomever comes out on top then has the best gov't hackers whip up a deepfake showing Putin anointing that top dog as his worthy successor?