Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Gusington]

Hoping that the Russians don't make an example of them.

[Tripoli]

Hoping that the Russians don't make an example of them.

I would assume that Russia would not execute them (although betting that Russia would not execute anyone is frequently not a winning bet....).  Here's my reasoning: 1) Presumably they were in uniform, and therefore they were lawful combatants.  So there is a Geneva convention and war crimes issue with executing them.  2) they are far more valuable alive as bargaining chips, then dead as examples.

[Gusington]

The Russians have given the death penalty to Ukrainian and British combatants who they've captured, but have not actually executed them yet as far as I know. And they have 1000s more Ukrainian prisoners.

If they did capture these two American combatants, they are the only American combatants they have. So...I agree, these two Americans are probably more valuable as bargaining tools/chips.

Still...would not want to be in the Americans' shoes right now.

[FarAway Sooner]

Following the Russian MO, they'll move quickly to announce a pending execution to maximize their value as a bargaining chip.

As for the new Franco/German MBT, somebody needs to buy those armies more pixels.  The camouflage pattern looks like it's straight out of Minecraft.

I'm also frustrated by the general lack of interest in military events in Ukraine.  Russia has a long history of doing better in grinding wars of attrition, of the sort that we're in now, and the reports coming from the Ukrainian government seem far less triumphant than what we were hearing 30 or 45 days ago.

[Gusington]

^ A lot of what we're seeing, the Ukrainians were screaming was coming. 'We can't hold them off forever.'

[FarAway Sooner]

This is an excellent article for those of us trying to use the past in Ukraine to predict the future of the military conflict there.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/strange-debacle-misadventures-in-assessing-russian-military-power/

The proximity to a dense network of rail lines in the industrialized East of Ukraine has certainly played to Russia's ability to amass and expend firepower.  The modern-day Russian army seems much better suited to holding ground than to seizing it. 

I wonder how Ukrainian inventories of Russian-made replacement parts and ammunition is faring. 

I also wonder how quickly we've been able to train the Ukrainians in using the more advanced Western weapons systems that are now flowing into the country.  The Ukrainians' ability to sustain fire on target is going to depend on having enough of the right weapon systems and enough of the right ammunition on hand at the same time.

[ArizonaTank]

Southern Front as of this time yesterday:

Hopefully the Ukrainians can get to Kherson. They need some good news.

[Pete Dero]

Confirmed missing, but no confirmation of Russian captivity yet from the State Department.

https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/ukraine/2022/06/15/2-us-veterans-a-marine-and-a-soldier-reported-missing-in-ukraine/

https://www.thedailybeast.com/us-captives-alexander-drueke-and-andy-huynh-surface-in-russian-propaganda-videos?ref=home

U.S. Captives Surface in Russian Propaganda Videos

Two of the American fighters thought to have been captured by Russian forces in Ukraine last week have suddenly surfaced in Russian propaganda videos, confirming their families' worst fears that they've wound up in enemy hands.

Alexander Drueke, 39, and Andy Huynh, 27, were seen looking worse for wear in videos shared by Russian state media on Friday. Though the two had officially joined Ukraine's military as volunteers in the war, the Russian headlines described them as American "mercenaries."

[Jarhead0331]

Sadly, it looks as if it has been confirmed that the two US veterans are, in fact, in Russian separatist captivity.

EDIT: Ninja'ed by Dero.

[Gusington]

Crap - don't know what to expect for the two of them now as prisoners.

[acctingman]

That sucks, but it was their choice to go over and no matter how brave and heroic their actions are, sadly, they have to deal with the consequences. I hope the US doesn't try and retaliate because of 2 men's choices.

[GDS_Starfury]

theyll be bargaining chip in future prisoner swaps.

[MengJiao]

^ A lot of what we're seeing, the Ukrainians were screaming was coming. 'We can't hold them off forever.'

  I still think we can rely on the Russians to flub all their opportunities: stopping at any point earlier would have been better of course for them and everyone else -- BUT -- if they don't stop soon
they will lose all the threatening nature of their gains and the possibility of separating the Ukrainians from some of their European supporters (since if the Russians stop and the Ukrainains still want to fight
then some of the Europeans will suggest "negotiations" -- which have been pointless with the Russians for quite a while) while on the other hand, if they continue, the Ukrainians are going to be building up
and in a very bad mood with lots of support at which point the Russians will have definitely flubbed all their chances of whatever they seem to have thought they were trying to do -- which is by the way -- still completely unclear.  There's a big difference between obliterating 20% of Ukraine and taking over the world, though the Russians don't seem to have quite worked that out.

[Dammit Carl!]

The recent rumblings from some in the West with regards to Ukraine stopping at this point is unimaginable.  Didn't see France go, "welp, just gotta let the Germans have it then," in WW1.  Besides, the activities of Russians in occupied territory screams that if given the chance, Ukrainian nationality as an idea and as a peoples' identity would be ground into oblivion so when facing that, who in their right mind would stop fighting?

Unreal.

[Gusington]

^Very true. This war is similar to WWI in a lot of ways, it's eerie.