Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

Saw a recent headline about Ukrainians starting to desert in significant numbers (enough to report anyway). Wasn't where I could check more, and now I'm at the office, so maybe someone else can come up with details...  :-\

[W8taminute]

According to the NATO General Secretary it could take years before this war is over. 

https://www.euronews.com/2022/06/19/it-could-take-years-nato-secretary-general-warns-of-a-possible-lengthy-war-in-ukraine

[FarAway Sooner]

Hanging onto territory and "winning" wars of attrition are two things that the Russians are pretty well prepared to do against a country one-quarter their size.  It's a little unclear if some of the cracks we're seeing in Ukrainian resolve are a calculated strategy by the Ukrainian government to get more concessions from their European allies, or a sign that Ukrainian determination might have its limits.

[Gusington]

The Lithuanians have some massive cajones:

CNN - Kremlin says Lithuanian ban is "illegal": Lithuania's decision to ban the transit of sanctioned materials to Russia through the Kaliningrad region -- Russia's exclave in the European Union -- is "unprecedented" and Russia considers it "illegal," according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Lithuanian Railways, the state-owned railway company, had notified Russia that starting midnight on June 18, transit trains with goods subject to EU sanctions would no longer be allowed to pass through, the governor of the Kaliningrad region Anton Alikhanov said on his telegram channel Friday. The list of the banned goods includes construction material, cement, metals according to Alikhanov.

[GDS_Starfury]

dont forget they have the full backing of the EU for this.  it was cleared with Brussles first.
and fuck russia.

[Gusington]

^Especially that last part haha

[Windigo]

I think this will roll on with Ukraine slowly pushing back the Ruskies (better morale than anything).

I read something somewhere that the Ukraines launched an attack against a Russian offshore gas platform. Interesting change of targets... going after economic targets now.

[Gusington]

Gotta link for that?

[MengJiao]

Hanging onto territory and "winning" wars of attrition are two things that the Russians are pretty well prepared to do against a country one-quarter their size.  It's a little unclear if some of the cracks we're seeing in Ukrainian resolve are a calculated strategy by the Ukrainian government to get more concessions from their European allies, or a sign that Ukrainian determination might have its limits.

  I'm not so sure about the Russians being good at everything.  After all the Japanese trounced them in 1905, plus Russia is demographically only about twice the size of Ukraine  (111 million ethnic Russians in Russia versus 44 million ethnic Ukrainians in Ukraine).  Moreover, I don't think the calculus of running this war forever really helps the Russians at all.  The Ukrainians don't seem likely to collapse any time soon and nothing about more and more of this war seems to favor the Russians at all.  If we're betting on which army will effectively mutiny, I think the Russian forces are slightly more likely to mutiny first, though once one army mutinies, the other may follow and the mutinies may be coming sooner than anyone (except me, I guess) seems to think.  We may be seeing the beginnings of effective mutiny on both sides with this "stalemate" situation.  As we know from WWI, it is quite possible for supposedly massive armies locked in combat to figure out ways of ensuring lots of shooting but not much damage via the growth of tacit understandings between the supposedly fully engaged forces.  Plus there is probably already a lot of cooking the reports going on that tell higher commands that a lot of stuff is happening that really isn't.

[Gusington]

The Russians have a long history of their entire nation in mutiny.

Ukraine will fight much much longer as it is a fight for their existence.

[W8taminute]

I saw a news article on that Lithuanian ban on Russian trains to Kaliningrad.  Regardless of the governments who start the wars it's always the people who suffer. 

Praying to the many on all sides who are suffering. 

[MOS:96B2P]

SLAVA UKRAINI!!!

Kira Nechay has begun volunteering in 2014. Since then, she trained as a paramedic and tactical medicine instructor.
When the war began, she joined "Hospitaliers" - volunteer medical battallion. Kira works in the East, helping people with evacuation and giving first aid.

[MOS:96B2P]

Below is an article posted on Twitter by ChrisO on May 31, 2022 that details some of the corruption in the armed forces of The Russian Federation.  Its demoralizing just reading it.  I can't imagine being 18 and having to serve in the described conditions.  IMO it explains some of the reasons why Russia is having so many difficulties with its invasion of Ukraine.  On the morning of the invasion who would have thought the Russian Federation would be forced to retreat from the outskirts of Kyiv.  The article makes the retreat a little more understandable.  Below are parts of the article.  The entire article (series of tweets) with more photos can be found on Twitter.  I'll attempt to create a link at the end.

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If you're in the Russian military, why do you need protection from these people but also aspire to behave like them? The answer lies in Russia's gangster culture. In this third 🧵 in a series, I'll look at some factors behind the epic scale of Russia's military corruption.



Old rations, faulty vehicles, missing radios, under-strength units: corruption has been blamed for hollowing out Russia's military and undermining its war in Ukraine. It's worth examining this problem and seeing how it's affected the Russian armed forces.

Russia is one of the world's most corrupt countries - Transparency International (TI) rates it 136th of 180 countries. State corruption is endemic. TI found that between 2008 and 2020, current and former Russian officials owned 28,000 properties in 85 countries.  Like every other state institution in Russia, the armed forces are riddled with corruption at every level. This is nothing new: in his 1854 Sevastopol Sketches, Tolstoy wrote of Russian officers: "While they are in the service their main aim is the acquisition of money."

In 1998, Russia's Prosecutor General called the Russian Armed Forces "the most corrupt government structure in Russia". If anything, it's got worse since then.  Corruption starts even before someone joins the military.  Only the poor or the stupid allow themselves to be conscripted. The rest get out of it by bribing a doctor or recruiting officer. The 'fee' was reportedly between $5,000-$10,000 in 2007.  Up to 70% of those summoned for conscription buy their way out of it, leaving the armed forces with the poorest and least healthy. This leaves the Russian military with chronic problems of fitness and efficiency.

If you get conscripted, you'll be treated as the lowest of the low and exploited ruthlessly by older soldiers, known as 'dyedi' ('uncles'). This could include being forced into prostitution, doing unpaid labor, or even selling your own blood to earn a few rubles.  In 2007, conscripts in St Petersburg told Russian media how older soldiers forced them to perform sexual services for influential middle-aged clients or face torture. Young soldiers were reportedly forced to go with clients in their cars. The dyedi kept a list of 'providers'.

If you're a contract soldier - a military professional - you're a step up but are still exploited. Salaries are low ($240 monthly before the Ukraine war). You may well need to buy your own uniforms, boots and fuel.  Newer uniforms and boots of the right size are often unavailable because they've been stolen and sold off, so you'll need to purchase them online. Ironically, ex-NATO surplus boots are reportedly favorites for their comfort and durability.  There are, however, compensations to being a low-ranking soldier or junior officer - you may be posted to a military depot. These offer endless opportunities for theft. Avito, Russia's equivalent of eBay, is full of adverts for likely stolen items of military equipment.

Let's move up to the mid-ranking officers. Life is a lot cushier at this level as you can sign contracts, command troops and oversee bases. There are a lot more opportunities for corruption at ranks from major through colonel.  Your perks may include using conscripts to build your dacha, or hiring them out to others to work in building sites, fields or factories. Naturally, the conscripts get no compensation for this work.  You also have the possibility of stealing your men's wages. Or manipulating budget allocations to claim money for non-existent extra personnel and pocket the difference. Non-existent troops are known as 'dead souls'.  Dead souls' are nothing new. In 1854, the Economist newspaper noted how much the Russian forces in the Crimean War were under strength. "The Russian armies are often armies on paper only.

"The colonels and officers have a direct interest in having as large a number on the books and as small a number on the field as possible - inasmuch as they pocket the pay and rations of the difference between these figures."

Figures leaked to Novye Izvestia newspaper in 2003 indicated that there were at least 30,000 "dead souls" in the armed forces. The 2012 case of Col Sergey Ustinov and Maj Hovik Babayan, two Eastern Military District officers, illustrates how this scam works.  Babayan was responsible for providing food services to troops under Ustinov's command. He forged documents, signed by Ustinov, showing 29,000 more soldiers were being fed than actually existed. The pair pocketed 6 million rubles for feeding the surplus 'dead souls'.

Researchers estimate that as many as one in ten Russian officers are corrupt. Military procurement is particularly rife with corruption. Let's first consider the case of Colonel Sergei Serkin, formerly the chief provisions officer for the North Caucasus Military District.  In only two years in his position, Col Serkin acquired several apartments, a house and an Audi car with a total value of about $200,000. One of his schemes was accepting bribes to purchase 3,500 tons of low-quality codfish, normally used as cattle food, for army rations.
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Link:

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1539019204267057153?s=20&t=94Ut_MYEnLIOWo-OhESyjg
 

[Sir Slash]

I suddenly feel short of breath. Please send Kira immediately.  ;)

[Gusington]

CNN has quoted the Kremlin announcing that the Geneva Convention does not apply to the American detainees they have.