Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

that shell weights 100 lbs more or less.  there are maybe 3 or 4 people in this thread that could lift it without throwing their old ass backs out.  :DD

[Sir Slash]

That is why God gave us, 'Young People' to do the heavy lifting for us.

[GDS_Starfury]

its also why you arent in the pipeline.  ;)

[Crossroads]

This is why you need to be careful when choosing your position when serving with Artillery. In late eighties, I served as a FDC NCO. Fire direction center, that is.

I say, I can still wield a ruler and a pencil like any young man! (What is a "ruler", or a "pencil", they ask)

[FarAway Sooner]

Thanks for the link to the Polish procurement article, Star.  That's a really detailed look at how some of the linkages play out.  It is interesting to see how the dominoes fall here:

1) Russia invades Ukraine.
2) Ukrainian allies move to furnish Russian arms to Ukraine, depleting their own inventories.
3) Urgency and demand for non-Russian weapons systems, ordinance, and spare parts escalates dramatically.
4) Western suppliers start to draw down their own inventories of more aging systems.
5) Ready-to-go weapons manufacturing lines make it to the front of the queue, given the urgency behind some of these needs.
6) Military suppliers outside Russia ramp up production quantities, driving down unit costs (in cases like US companies, does this save US taxpayers money or just generate extra revenue & profits for arms manufacturers?).

I wonder what lessons are emerging around the need for adequate ordinance stockpiles in other countries in Europe?  For US forces based in Europe?  Clearly, the weapons-systems switchover from Russian-made arms to Western-made arms has been a painful transition for the Ukrainians (especially in heavier and more sophisticated weaponry).

[Windigo]

I am pretty sure they'll take the pain... especially with the likes of HIMARS

[GDS_Starfury]

in cases like US companies, does this save US taxpayers money or just generate extra revenue & profits for arms manufacturers?

it should.  the best example is the F-35 program.  Farnborough was extremely good the Lookheed Martin this year as everyone want in on or more of F-35s.  that directly reduces costs across the board. 
Im in several heated debates about the state of US industry with a few people who complain about the lack of government / defense projects.  well they can stfu now because theres going to be work for years.

[Gusington]

Probably decades. I know I am beating a dead horse here but even with the war in an attritional phase...is that Russia's end game? Just to turn Ukraine into a giant trench against the 'encroachment' of the west? That's basically the only positive I can glean from this whole disaster.

[FarAway Sooner]

in cases like US companies, does this save US taxpayers money or just generate extra revenue & profits for arms manufacturers?

it should.  the best example is the F-35 program.  Farnborough was extremely good the Lookheed Martin this year as everyone want in on or more of F-35s.  that directly reduces costs across the board. 
Im in several heated debates about the state of US industry with a few people who complain about the lack of government / defense projects.  well they can stfu now because theres going to be work for years.

At the risk of sounding pedantic, are you certain that those savings are built into the nature of the contracts that the DoD has signed with Lockheed?  I've long worried that US defense spending exists primarily as a conduit for crony capitalism, and the output of an adequate number of high-quality weapons for our troops is very much a secondary consideration...

I am pretty sure they'll take the pain... especially with the likes of HIMARS

The HIMARS have been remarkably successful in creating a ton of logistical headaches for the Russian military.  I'd argue that what sets them apart is not their exceptional quality as American-made weapons systems, but their range (and, to a lesser extent, their accuracy).  If the Ukrainians had a similar arsenal of comparable Russian missiles (e.g., the M-9A54 Tornado-S), they would have been able to inflict similar disruptions.

The HIMARS have created enormous logistical problems for the Russians.  It remains to be seen how they might adapt, particularly in terms of the countermeasures that they can take to suppress the HIMARS launchers.  We heard lots about the success of the Turkish Bhaktar drones and the US Javelins in the early months of the war, but as Russian doctrine and the area of engagement has shifted, we don't hear much about that.

I'm not saying that the HIMARS is a poor weapons system or that it's not doing what it's supposed to.  I'm just saying that the logistical transition from one side's weapons to another side's weapons largely outweighs any marginal improvement in their performance.  We know from the early days of the war that Russian equipment worked quite effectively when used and maintained by motivated (Ukrainian) troops.

[GDS_Starfury]

At the risk of sounding pedantic, are you certain that those savings are built into the nature of the contracts that the DoD has signed with Lockheed?  I've long worried that US defense spending exists primarily as a conduit for crony capitalism, and the output of an adequate number of high-quality weapons for our troops is very much a secondary consideration

batches of F-35s are bought yearly for the US military.  its not a close ended agreement on price.  so the jets bought in 5 years will be cheaper then the ones bought today.  likewise as the supply chain becomes more established and widespread the maintenance becomes cheaper for everyone.  as outtake from the Swiss:
https://skiesmag.com/news/swiss-bet-f35-affordability/

a snippet about price reduction from 2018:
https://breakingdefense.com/2018/10/f-35-hourly-flying-costs-plunge-12k-turkey-still-getting-100-f-35s/

a little less then 800 F-35s have been built so far for all customers.  extrapolate the costs when there are over 4000+ worldwide.

[ComradeP]

I wonder what lessons are emerging around the need for adequate ordinance stockpiles in other countries in Europe?  For US forces based in Europe?  Clearly, the weapons-systems switchover from Russian-made arms to Western-made arms has been a painful transition for the Ukrainians (especially in heavier and more sophisticated weaponry).

The lessons were already there for those who didn't want to ignore them, but this is the first time most Western and Eastern European countries have a chance to see what modern ordinance expenditure is like in a large scale conflict.

Given the (very) limited NATO stockpiles in a number of member states and the (very) limited output by the arms industry in the first time it was tested (aside from aircraft ordinance manufacturers) since the Cold War, a conflict of this size would have rapidly drained stockpiles.

It's also a realism check for the arms industry that they can't go to a war footing on short notice, something which might be required by NATO in future conflicts. In that sense, moving older ordinance and equipment to Ukraine hides some painful truths about how capable the arms industry is in terms of responding to the outbreak of a genuine war.

it should.  the best example is the F-35 program.  Farnborough was extremely good the Lookheed Martin this year as everyone want in on or more of F-35s.  that directly reduces costs across the board.
Im in several heated debates about the state of US industry with a few people who complain about the lack of government / defense projects.  well they can stfu now because theres going to be work for years.

I remember our F-35 discussions from the Wargamer and you were optimistic about cost reductions and deliveries back then as well. Neither materialized. It's way over budget and suffered delay after delay. Even the limited order by the Dutch Air Force hasn't been fulfilled yet, and the first Dutch F-35's only arrived in October 2019. I'm very sceptical about any sort of good news about the project after all the bad news in the last 20 years. 

I've long worried that US defense spending exists primarily as a conduit for crony capitalism, and the output of an adequate number of high-quality weapons for our troops is very much a secondary consideration...

Given the enormous amount of money the US throws at Defense spending, I'm not impressed thus far in terms of production levels.

[GDS_Starfury]

oh Comrade.....

I remember our F-35 discussions from the Wargamer and you were optimistic about cost reductions and deliveries back then as well. Neither materialized.

both have.  the F-35 has transitioned into quite the successful program no matter how much you may not like it.
its there to read if you want to find it.  you dont. you didnt then so Im not going to bother.

Even the limited order by the Dutch Air Force hasn't been fulfilled yet, and the first Dutch F-35's only arrived in October 2019.

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/netherlands-begins-populating-second-f-35-squadron

you have one full squadron, half the planes ordered, but no... thats not enough for ComradeP!
who are the Dutch attacking so soon?  do you even know what the delivery schedule is?

I'm very sceptical about any sort of good news about the project after all the bad news in the last 20 years. 

if bad news is all you look for, bad news is all you get.  and its not like your known as an optimist to begin with.  :bd:

[GDS_Starfury]

Given the enormous amount of money the US throws at Defense spending, I'm not impressed thus far in terms of production levels.

please Comrade, enlighten me as to what you know about US munition production levels and stockpiles.

[ComradeP]

both have.  the F-35 has transitioned into quite the successful program no matter how much you may not like it.
its there to read if you want to find it.  you dont. you didnt then so Im not going to bother.

Really? Your argument is that compared to 2005-2006 or so, the period I'm talking about, the F-35 program neither costs more nor faced delays in deliveries? That's bizarre.

you have one full squadron, half the planes ordered, but no... thats not enough for ComradeP!
who are the Dutch attacking so soon?  do you even know what the delivery schedule is?

The Netherlands is a Tier 2 partner that got on board in 2002. An aircraft for testing was purchased in 2009 and the final political decision was made in 2013. I'm not sure why, again: given the limited number of aircraft, it should be seen as an achievement that 9 years later only about half the ordered aircraft were delivered? The first arriving in late 2019?

I'm supposed to be the one who tries to defend an argument that's difficult to hold on to Starfury, and "the F-35 production was not delayed" argument is exactly that kind of argument.

You would sell the F-35 door to door if you could, and that's fine, but don't pretend it's not way over budget compared to the early 2000's budget or that production wasn't delayed.

please Comrade, enlighten me as to what you know about US munition production levels and stockpiles.

US stockpiles? I'm talking about European NATO stockpiles. As to US production: the Javelin production that didn't impress me. I don't know what overall production levels are like, I've only kept track of articles related to equipment being sent to Ukraine.

[GDS_Starfury]

move the goal posts however you like, you're still wrong.
back to the Ukraine news.