Russia's War Against Ukraine

[W8taminute]

^You speak the truth Jason.  Thanks for that message.   :)

[GDS_Starfury]

" our people"?

[al_infierno]

Just a friendly reminder but I can't get into exact details without getting into trouble.  But think of it like this.

"This world is like the Titanic, sinking fast.  There is a lifeboat however, you just need to believe."

That lifeboat could be a SpaceX rocketship, an underground bunker, or something else? 

YouTube "This world is sinking fast" and watch for the results that come up.  Just Watch man.  PM me with questions or comments but don't post it here or anywhere else on this site.

How many times are you going to bump Jesus shit in this thread before you realize nobody gives a damn?  Other Christians already agree with you, and non-Christians won't be convinced.  Just give it up man.

[W8taminute]

Just a friendly reminder but I can't get into exact details without getting into trouble.  But think of it like this.

"This world is like the Titanic, sinking fast.  There is a lifeboat however, you just need to believe."

That lifeboat could be a SpaceX rocketship, an underground bunker, or something else? 

YouTube "This world is sinking fast" and watch for the results that come up.  Just Watch man.  PM me with questions or comments but don't post it here or anywhere else on this site.

How many times are you going to bump Jesus shit in this thread before you realize nobody gives a damn?  Other Christians already agree with you, and non-Christians won't be convinced.  Just give it up man.

Yeah, you're right.  I'll cut it out.  You have my word.

[GDS_Starfury]

 ::)

anywho..... back to this war:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1554647160804851712/photo/1

[JasonPratt]

"our people"?

W8 and I are on far-flung branches of a rather large, ancient, and broadly diverse group which, as an identifiable group, focuses on some things not entirely focused on by other people outside the group, although there are also (naturally) some very significant overlaps. But I promise, I only meant to be categorically descriptive, not exclusive:

after all, anyone can be a wargamer, if they want to.  8)


Back to this particular war. I was checking out Jomini's evaluation of Ukraine's war aims, and... I'm not sure if this was just phrased oddly, or if this is actually problematic, but the aim of "a politically independent Ukraine" does not seem to entirely gell with the aim of achieving a legally binding security guarantee agreement backed by powers including the European Union, along with cultural and economic integration with the European Union. I realize the confederacy of nation-states in this union (so to speak) isn't the same as a federal union, but one does not go into such an integration without also becoming politically interdependent, maybe more interdependent than most others in that group, especially if you're on a front line and hoping your partners will come help you repel any boarders arriving at the borders!

My point is that Ukraine got into this trouble partly by insisting on being a neutrally independent political state outside and apart from the EU while also expecting the EU (and NATO) to rush to their defense if those boarders crossed the borders. Have they really learned a lesson here, or will they go back to trying to have it both ways?

Switzerland can get away with being Switzerland smack in the middle of the EU without being part of the EU or the Eurozone, because they're Switzerland and have had a few centuries of practice being Switzerland. Ukraine reaaaaaallly wanted to be a much larger and more economically diverse (and maybe more roughly corrupt) Switzerland while also being (unavoidably, but also exploitably) a thorn in the side of Russia. This has not yet ended well for them -- as illustrated on the rest of the map.

If they try to be facing both ways again, this map is likely to be repeated in the future.

On the other hand, the cream of 1960s Soviet technology, peppered for flavor by some T90s and upgraded T72s, is currently haunting Crimea, so maybe Ukraine will bet that repeating this map wouldn't be so bad next time.

[Sir Slash]

I for one give a damn al. As any good Christian should, W8 is merely trying to do what he believes may SAVE his fellow humans from a fate we all deserve, but maybe able to avoid regardless whether or not anyone listens. His motives are pure and not self-serving. And he tried to couch them in a way that would not offend anyone. One would imagine people could simply ignore that with which they disagree out of respect for a fellow human being and person they've interacted with here for years. The viciousness of your response to W8 shows you to be truly a person in need of hearing that Jesus-shit message most of all.

[GDS_Starfury]

uuuhhhhh......... no  :bd:

we all know its rough to talk about the world today without crossing boundaries but mostly we get it done.
keep getting it done.

[GDS_Starfury]

My point is that Ukraine got into this trouble partly by insisting on being a neutrally independent political state outside and apart from the EU while also expecting the EU (and NATO) to rush to their defense if those boarders crossed the borders. Have they really learned a lesson here, or will they go back to trying to have it both ways?

so you're saying that the Ukraine asked / deserved to be invaded because it dared try to be an independent state while cleaning up its act to meet EU standards?  are you actually that daft?  if russia didnt have nukes this would have a been a GW1 response from day 1.  its a sovereign fucking country!  who the fuck do you actually think needs to learn a leason here?  rational people would like to know.

[Gusington]

It's best to keep R&P out of this thread as we've been doing, including odd oblique references and invitations.

I thought al's response was fine.

[ArizonaTank]

"our people"?

My point is that Ukraine got into this trouble partly by insisting on being a neutrally independent political state outside and apart from the EU while also expecting the EU (and NATO) to rush to their defense if those boarders crossed the borders. Have they really learned a lesson here, or will they go back to trying to have it both ways?

I don't think you meant to, but you almost sound like you are parroting Russian talking points; ie. if a kid defies a bully and then gets hit by the bully...the 'Russian' logic says he 'asked for' his black-eye.

Have they really learned a lesson here, or will they go back to trying to have it both ways?

No lesson to learn, they don't want to be a puppet like Belarus and they just want to be free.

If anyone wants to know what this war is about IMHO, I highly recommend the documentary "Winter on Fire" on Netflix.   

[ArizonaTank]

It's best to keep R&P out of this thread as we've been doing, including odd oblique references and invitations.

+1

Please let's keep R&P out of this. Feelings can run very strong with R&P, and divisions can be deep even among folks who are otherwise 'affiliated' with each other. The Thirty-Years' War should have taught us something...

[JasonPratt]

My point is that Ukraine got into this trouble partly by insisting on being a neutrally independent political state outside and apart from the EU while also expecting the EU (and NATO) to rush to their defense if those boarders crossed the borders. Have they really learned a lesson here, or will they go back to trying to have it both ways?

so you're saying that the Ukraine asked / deserved to be invaded because it dared try to be an independent state while cleaning up its act to meet EU standards?  are you actually that daft?  if russia didnt have nukes this would have a been a GW1 response from day 1.  its a sovereign fucking country!  who the fuck do you actually think needs to learn a leason here?  rational people would like to know.

Of course I'm not saying that Ukraine deserved (in a moral sense) to be invaded, much less asked to be invaded, good grief! But they overtly did not want to be involved in NATO or the EU, for various reasons (including but not limited to not provoking the bear who didn't want them in NATO or even the EU), and so they had no military treaty for mutual defense. Are you saying we would have gone directly on day one into a shooting war (a la Gulf War 1 to oust Iraq from Kuwait, striking into Iraq as far as we cared to go to zorch their military power) against Russia, a member of the UN Security Council, for a non-ally, if Russia didn't have nukes? -- or that the EU would have done so?

If so, why are other neutral border nations now desperately hopping on the NATO and/or EU bandwagon? -- aren't the NATO and EU nations prepared to go into a counter-invading shooting war against prime-United Nations-member Russia for their sake, up to and including throwing down our own nuclear deterrents (and the EU's), even if those other neutral border sovereign nations aren't military allies? No, obviously not!

Ukraine had plenty of time to "clean up its act", with God knows enough hot problems from Russian conquests already for years. If they think they can take Russia alone, even after years of not being able to take Russia alone, then that's their judgment. (Obviously I'm talking about the government, and the people behind the government, not the people who aren't in charge.) If on the other hand they want to be treated like military allies, then they had better be military allies before the Russians cross the border, preferably long before.

Russia is responsible for invading Ukraine, now and in prior years: that's indisputable. Also responsible for various war-crimes in the process, also indisputable. (When have I ever said otherwise? When have I not been cheering on Ukrainian successes, and mourning its losses??) But Ukraine is responsible for its own choices, too, precisely because it's a sovereign country.

Was Zelensky (and his crew, including his power-backers) really in the process of changing things enough to "clean up their act", so that's why Putin figured he'd better invade now while he still had a chance? Okay, I'll provisionally grant that, at least for sake of argument. But their past history suggests, even under significant levels of military defeat, that their government (and the powers behind their government) would prefer to have the benefits of marrying into the EU/NATO without actually marrying the EU/NATO; and that contradictory goal leads to strategic (also tactical) weakness which Putin has been exploiting already for years.

Are they going to go back to that geo-political strategy, if they think they can get away with it this time? Only if enough people in power over there have learned not to play footsie with European tensions. But if they want into the EU (and/or NATO) they'll have to accept a lot of interdependence, and in their case a lot of dependence, that they've previously been trying to avoid for their notion of an independent political state on the border of a hostile criminal regime.

(Or as I noted, if Ukraine gets out of this with Russia reduced to being a 1960s Bond-villain military plus some spotty science-fiction weapons by 1960s standards, maybe their government and its power-brokers will feel safe going back to the status quo that they previously preferred.)

[Crossroads]

Please let's keep R&P out of this. Feelings can run very strong with R&P, and divisions can be deep even among folks who are otherwise 'affiliated' with each other. The Thirty-Years' War should have taught us something...

I'm keeping my Personal Text quotation though, hope that's OK with everyone  O:-)  O0

[JasonPratt]

For some amusing war news we can all agree on cheering:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-blows-up-its-ammunition-while-trying-to-hide-from-himars-report/ar-AA10eJNm?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=8ae762422d7143f39f3fcc8b9cdcd175

Of course it's currently unconfirmed, but not too surprising if true.  ::)