Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Pete Dero]

But they overtly did not want to be involved in NATO or the EU, for various reasons

https://uatv.ua/en/ukrainian-parliament-amends-constitution-set-path-eu-nato-membership/

The Ukrainian Parliament adopted an amendment to the Constitution of Ukraine that enshrines a future with both European Union and NATO membership.

According to the amendment, full membership in the European Union and NATO is a strategic course for Ukraine.

[GDS_Starfury]

Are you saying we would have gone directly on day one into a shooting war (a la Gulf War 1 to oust Iraq from Kuwait, striking into Iraq as far as we cared to go to zorch their military power) against Russia, a member of the UN Security Council, for a non-ally, if Russia didn't have nukes? -- or that the EU would have done so?

yes because thats what you do to bullies.
keep in mind that the russian military when this shit started is smaller then Iraq's back then.
its only nukes that keep them from getting royally fucked.

[Sir Slash]

The Ukrainian Parliament's Resolution is exactly the reason we DON'T want that to happen. If accepted into NATO back in 2019, that would have obligated America and the EU to go to war to defend Ukrainian territory including the Crimea if Ukraine says it's still their land. Completely different from Ukraine defending itself with our help. No Rational person should want war with Russia.

[GDS_Starfury]

Was Zelensky (and his crew, including his power-backers) really in the process of changing things enough to "clean up their act", so that's why Putin figured he'd better invade now while he still had a chance? Okay, I'll provisionally grant that, at least for sake of argument. But their past history suggests, even under significant levels of military defeat, that their government (and the powers behind their government) would prefer to have the benefits of marrying into the EU/NATO without actually marrying the EU/NATO; and that contradictory goal leads to strategic (also tactical) weakness which Putin has been exploiting already for years.

Are they going to go back to that geo-political strategy, if they think they can get away with it this time? Only if enough people in power over there have learned not to play footsie with European tensions. But if they want into the EU (and/or NATO) they'll have to accept a lot of interdependence, and in their case a lot of dependence, that they've previously been trying to avoid for their notion of an independent political state on the border of a hostile criminal regime.

I really wonder if your living on the same planet that I am.  have you done any reading or research on this topic?

[W8taminute]

I thought al's response was fine.

I disagree and here's why:

If al, who has continually abused me in many other threads with ugly language, was doing his job correctly he should have told me to cease and desist in my activities.  Instead he used insults.  I am not trying to stir up trouble but I AM pointing out that as a moderator he should have use more tactful manners to correct a wrong I did. 

I forgive you al and I love you. 

I don't want to talk about this anymore and I don't want this to continue.  I've said my peace, now I withdraw.

[al_infierno]

I'm not a board moderator in the same sense as Gus and JH.  I only remove spam and do not represent Grogheads as a board.  Please don't interpret my comments as representing Grogheads in any way.  I'm basically just a janitor.

It wasn't my intent to be insulting or offensive, but I'm sorry if you feel insulted by my reply.

[FarAway Sooner]

"If Ukraine didn't want to be invaded, she wouldn't have dressed that way."

My sense is that Ukraine was largely a proxy of Russia under the Yanukovich regime until the revolution that ousted him in 2014.  This revolution followed Yanukovich's rejection of the widely-approved-by-Ukrainian-legislators move to shift away from Russian orbit and reach West, which led to protests, which led to armed suppression, which led to more violent protests, which culminated in Yanukovich's ouster.  There have always been factions in Ukraine that are more pro-Russian and other factions that are more pro-European.

Shortly after that revolution, Russian troops (aided by Ukrainian separatists) occupied various parts of Eastern Ukraine.  The Ukrainian army at that time had little to say about it.

From 2014 until early 2022, Ukraine seems to have been trying to thread the needle to leave the Russian orbit and enter the European orbit, but to do so in such a way that they didn't trigger a Russian occupation of the rest of their country.  During that time, they've also been training and rebuilding their army like crazy--partly in an effort to deal with the brush war waging in those Eastern and Southeastern portions of Russia, but also partly out of fear of a Russian invasion.

I don't want to exaggerate the Ukrainians' innocence in this whole affair.  There have been sordid actors in the pro-Russian and anti-Russian factions, as well as other interests just looking to profiteer from whichever side they can.  But unoccupied Ukraine's overall trajectory has been decidedly pro-Western since 2014.

Russia invaded in early 2022, catching almost everybody still living in 2021 by total surprise.  One can only speculate on why Russia invaded; Putin hasn't granted any exclusive interviews to Barbara Walters recently.  But the narratives provided by Russia to justify the invasion in the first place have been universally rejected by almost the entire free world.  This is remarkable, given how many of those same media and government sources saw fit to question all sorts of US policies in other parts of the word.

[FarAway Sooner]

"If Ukraine didn't want to be invaded, she wouldn't have dressed that way."

My sense is that Ukraine was largely a proxy of Russia under the Yanukovich regime until the revolution that ousted him in 2014.  This revolution followed Yanukovich's rejection of the widely-approved-by-Ukrainian-legislators move to shift away from Russian orbit and reach West, which led to protests, which led to armed suppression, which led to more violent protests, which culminated in Yanukovich's ouster.  There have always been factions in Ukraine that are more pro-Russian and other factions that are more pro-European.

Shortly after that revolution, Russian troops (aided by Ukrainian separatists) occupied various parts of Eastern Ukraine.  The Ukrainian army at that time had little to say about it.

From 2014 until early 2022, Ukraine seems to have been trying to thread the needle to leave the Russian orbit and enter the European orbit, but to do so in such a way that they didn't trigger a Russian occupation of the rest of their country.  During that time, they've also been training and rebuilding their army like crazy--partly in an effort to deal with the brush war waging in those Eastern and Southeastern portions of Russia, but also partly out of fear of a Russian invasion.

I don't want to exaggerate the Ukrainians' innocence in this whole affair.  There have been sordid actors in the pro-Russian and anti-Russian factions, as well as other interests just looking to profiteer from whichever side they can.  But unoccupied Ukraine's overall trajectory has been decidedly pro-Western since 2014.

Russia invaded in early 2022, catching almost everybody still living in 2021 by total surprise.  One can only speculate on why Russia invaded; Putin hasn't granted any exclusive interviews to Barbara Walters recently.  But the narratives provided by Russia to justify the invasion in the first place have been universally rejected by almost the entire world and by the entire "free world".  This is remarkable, given how many of those same media and government sources saw fit to question all sorts of US policies in other parts of the world over the last 25 years.

[W8taminute]

No worries al.  It's all good.  I know you didn't mean to offend. 

[Gusington]

Ok it looks as if things have calmed down here. Not in Ukraine, though.

This is definitely quotable: "If Ukraine didn't want to be invaded, she wouldn't have dressed that way."

[Sir Slash]

Of course with Russia's history of Sexual Predator-ship, nobody should dress anyway around her but in full head-to-toe armor plate.   :hide:   Sooners post above lays the facts and timeline out very well I think. Neither countries are saints here but only one is clearly the aggressor. And that should be condemned by all.

[FarAway Sooner]

It's pure speculation on my part, but here's why I think Putin invaded Ukraine:  Ukraine "going European" was not an existential threat to the country or people of Russia, but it was an existential threat to Putin's plans for an Imperial Renewal of Russia.  It took a whole string of (mis)calculations for Putin & Pals to get the world into this current dilemma, but here we go:

1) Putin & Co. thought invading the rest of Ukraine would be as easy/unopposed as when they sent troops into places like Syria (2015), the Crimea & Donetsk provinces of Ukraine (2014), Kyrghyzstan (2012), and Chechnya (2000).  Obviously, they were wrong.

But they still wouldn't have invaded unless Putin considered Ukraine/the Ukrainian regime as a threat to his dreams for renewed Russian domination of Eastern Europe.  Consider:

2) Ukraine was pivoting West very quickly, with gratifying results to most of its people.  This would make a dangerous example for other neighbors who had never before left the Russian orbit.

3) Zelensky was himself very well equipped to appeal to the Russian people.  Raised in Eastern Ukraine, in a Russian-speaking home, he was a Ukrainian TV star.  That meant he had spent much of his career trying to make it into a "big time TV market" (i.e., Russia).  He understood Russian audiences in a way that few foreigners did.  Putin was, I think, afraid of losing "a culture war" that would turn his beloved kleptocracy/country into just another soft, Western-leaning democracy.

We'll never be able to prove what was going on in Putin's head.  But it's clear that he considered Ukraine a threat to his imperialist ambitions.  Given how easily he'd been able to occupy other countries (see list above) with feeble excuses, there was little reason to think that Ukraine would go differently.  Truth be told, if the Ukrainians had not fought so hard and so effectively, I doubt the West would have done much besides ring their hands and keep buying Russian gas, oil, and coal.

[GDS_Starfury]

the current state of russias nuclear arsenal?

[Sir Slash]

Rules of the Road: The Nukes ALWAYS have the Right-Of-Way. 

[JasonPratt]

But they overtly did not want to be involved in NATO or the EU, for various reasons

https://uatv.ua/en/ukrainian-parliament-amends-constitution-set-path-eu-nato-membership/

The Ukrainian Parliament adopted an amendment to the Constitution of Ukraine that enshrines a future with both European Union and NATO membership.

According to the amendment, full membership in the European Union and NATO is a strategic course for Ukraine.

In other words, only three years ago (Feb to invasion this Feb), after a bunch of disasters from Russian military action already, and with no actual plans (at that time) to do anything. (Which to be fair wouldn't be in a Constitutional Amendment per se, or so I suppose.) Also, five years after the 2014 revolution putting more pro-western politicians into power. These facts are well within my overall assessment and cautious scepticism about what Ukraine may do or not do after the war (which I'm solidly treating as ending in their favor one way or another).

Are you saying we would have gone directly on day one into a shooting war (a la Gulf War 1 to oust Iraq from Kuwait, striking into Iraq as far as we cared to go to zorch their military power) against Russia, a member of the UN Security Council, for a non-ally, if Russia didn't have nukes? -- or that the EU would have done so?

yes because thats what you do to bullies.
keep in mind that the russian military when this shit started is smaller then Iraq's back then.
its only nukes that keep them from getting royally fucked.

[...]

I really wonder if your living on the same planet that I am.

I'm living on the planet with geopolitical realities, treaties, alliances, lacks thereof, and a bunch of complexities (both in local politics, in EU politics, and in UN politics) that do not reduce down to schoolyard counterattacks on bullies, regardless of how much I hate bullies and sympathize with the idea of everyone ganging up on them pronto.

GW1 is NOT analogous to this situation, even aside from the nuclear question; and even GW1 isn't analogous to kids instantly ganging up on a bully to ruin his ability to do that anymore. For that matter, GW1 didn't resolve the issue, thanks to all those realworld geopolitical complexities: Hussein thumbed his nose at the United Nations for ten years for their/our charity in calling a halt to give him time to think over his life choices; used WMDs on his own population control meanwhile; tried to develop nuclear WMDs; built his army back up in an invasion form again; and then got punched out at last as a rogue nation by the US losing patience (and looking for some political capitalization) in a highly contentious GW2 that is still today regarded in many places as an overtly and even criminally unjustified finale to the paused GW1 war.

I kind of doubt that any human being is capable of taking account of all the factors involved in the current war, but at least I'm trying to be realistic about both it and the political situation(s) surrounding it, before and (potentially) after. That includes trying to factor out my emotional bias in favor of defending the Ukrainian people against an(other) obvious conquering invasion. (And rescuing the Russian people from a dictatorial regime, for that matter.)