Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

It's pure speculation on my part, but here's why I think Putin invaded Ukraine:  Ukraine "going European" was not an existential threat to the country or people of Russia, but it was an existential threat to Putin's plans for an Imperial Renewal of Russia. [...]

We'll never be able to prove what was going on in Putin's head.  But it's clear that he considered Ukraine a threat to his imperialist ambitions.  Given how easily he'd been able to occupy other countries (see list above) with feeble excuses, there was little reason to think that Ukraine would go differently.  Truth be told, if the Ukrainians had not fought so hard and so effectively, I doubt the West would have done much besides ring their hands and keep buying Russian gas, oil, and coal.

Totally agree, with the proviso that from the perspective of how the Russian government still thinks about its own satellite states, Ukraine looks like yet another fortified sector for NATO to launch a conquering invasion from. "Only the naive see Fortified Sectors as being primarily for defense," as some Soviet-era general once said, whose name I've forgotten offhand.

Based on Putin's own remarks about his plans for Ukraine, as quoted somewhere waaaay upthread weeks or a few months ago, he planned to use the Ukrainian area precisely in this fashion to go after more territories farther west. He's someone who thinks this way, as are his political supporters; so he also thinks that way about NATO threats, even though we know that NATO isn't an existential threat to the country or people of Russia.

Of course, I'm not (yet) convinced that the Ukrainian government as a whole was pivoting as quickly west as Putin believed -- they capitalized hard on being a handy local neutral government, and Putin's own actions goosed them sporadically toward us. But I don't think that invalidates your analysis at all.  O0

[GDS_Starfury]

the thing the russia doesnt get is that no one wants to invade or take or their shithole country,

[FarAway Sooner]

Star, I share your moral contempt for the Russian government.  I just don't think we can reduce the situation to as simple a metaphor as you propose.

Or, if you'll indulge me, I view walking onto the playground and starting to beat the crap out of Russia as starting a fight with a radical extremist bully who's also wearing a gigantic suicide vest.      :timeout:

[MengJiao]

the thing the russia doesnt get is that no one wants to invade or take or their shithole country,

  I am a little puzzled by what the current Russian regime hopes to gain by continuing this war.  Is it just that they can't see any way to stop themselves?  It's pretty clear that their stated goals
have expanded (or become more nebulous or insane?) in lock-step with the decline in their likelihood of getting anything worthwhile out of the mess.  You can sort of see the annexation plans for various
regions (including Kharkov where they have not done well from day one) as a kind of pretext for continuing to blow things up.  They can sort of fool themselves by saying to themselves (since who
is trying comprehend them anymore really?)-- Oh never mind about annexing or blowing up things because we're just too busy annexing or blowing up things to stop annexing or blowing up things.
Kind of a weird circle of self-deception that no one else can fathom.

[JasonPratt]

the thing the russia doesnt get is that no one wants to invade or take or their shithole country,

After having an appreciable chuckle at that, I thought: from their perspective, the threat is probably more like "if they kick in our door, the whole rotten structure will collapse". Apply several levels of irony as applicable.

Come to think of it, China might be the only country who wants to take and hold Russian territory, though by soft means right now.

Meanwhile... I suspect the ball may already be in Ukraine's court? If they can't shut down Russia by winter, Putin might think he can force a diplomatic win in order to turn on the natural gas to Europe. (Or, would the EU invade their country to take the gas not the land...?)

[bobarossa]

Their aim can't be to gain economic advantage (at least in the near term) since they are basically destroying everything they capture.  They will then be stuck with a ton more territory with no economic output and considerable demands on Russia's economy if it is to be rebuilt.

[Gusington]

There's more of a chance I will play in the NBA than of the EU invading Russia to seize gas.

[JasonPratt]

There's more of a chance I will play in the NBA than of the EU invading Russia to seize gas.

"THE JEWISH MISSILE IS RUNNING UNDER HOPKINS! NOTHING CAN STOP HIM FOR THE EASY LAYUP, AND ANOTHER TWO POINTS! PLAYERS KEEP FOULING OUT TRYING TO STOP HIS STEAMROLL TO VICTORY -- HIS TEAM WON'T EVEN HAVE TO OUTSCORE THEY'LL WIN ON A DEFAULT!"  :D

...come to think of it, it would be pretty ironic if, let's say, Italy and Germany and Romania (not in that priority of importance) used the Ukraine region as a springboard to open up gas pipelines into western Europe. But no, that isn't going to happen, so we're back to Ukraine winning solidly before they cut off Ukraine's supplies to get Russia to turn on the gas for the winter.

Even if Ukraine somehow wins solidly enough for their purposes and also to get Russia to back off, would Russia turn the gas back on for western Europe at this point? Maybe for economic reasons, but their economy is being zorched to a crisp already.

[Con]

Some pretty fantastic reports or thoughts from Russian propogandist's that North Korea nod Russia might drop sanctions, provide energy and grain to North Korea in exchange for over 100,000 NK "volunteers" and artillery systems to be sent to fight in Ukraine.  Sounds unlikely but playing it out what would that mean for the war if NK got involved and supplied that level of trained manpower and arty?  Would it be effective?
Short term the NORKS could relive garrisons in the Donbas to fight

Con

[Gusington]

Haha Pratt that is good stuff :)

100K North Korean reinforcements??

[JasonPratt]

"HE KEEPS YELLING 'KHAZAD DU-BEKAR' IN A SCOTTISH ACCENT, NO ONE KNOWS WHAT HE MEANS!"

Hm, so the Norks have decided it's time to stop screwing around and really kick WW3 into gear? Or maybe they only count as a 'Great Power' in their own mind. ;)

More seriously, would China be involved in back-dooring such a deal?

Less seriously, would Norks be bringing over any robotic locusts they captured from US spies to release upon Ukrainian fields?

More seriously, but maybe also less seriously: could the Norks even field 100K trained soldiers worth sending? Or would their 'training' (and 'equipment') be equivalent to what Putin has already thrown out there? And if so (i.e. kind of crappy reinforcements), maybe that would still give Russia the win just for having warm bodies willing and able to man captured areas on defense?

I mean, it isn't like having a major number of troops speaking and reading Korean (in a North dialect presumably) would be that much more disruptive to Russian CCC at this point...  ::) (Though more seriously that would seem like a major handicap to Russia.)

[Gusington]

^Even though your insanity is shining through on that last post it brings up a good point - would North Korea be proven to be less fierce than they want to be viewed, just like the Russians earlier this year?

[JasonPratt]

Even if the troops were sufficient quality (however sufficient that needs to be), I would think the logistic snarls would be nightmarish for Russia, too, in the condition they're already in.

On the other hand, Shrapnel Games might release an expansion for Raging Tiger, so there's that.  :clap:

[Gusington]

 ;D

[Sir Slash]

I think the Norks biggest worry would be EVER getting their troops back. They may have to send 200K more just to bring them home at gunpoint.