Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Pete Dero]

Another timeless image

The Ukrainian army tweeted yesterday :  'Maybe we are too strict with Russian tourists... Sometimes they can be very helpful, like this man taking pictures of Russian air defense positions near Yevpatoria, in occupied Crimea. Thank you and keep up the good work!"

https://www.nieuwsblad.be/cnt/dmf20220823_91999826

[JasonPratt]

it took years in the making to happen but Pratt finally posted a short, clear and concise post about something!

I could have tried to
make the post a haiku, but:
that's so last decade.

[JasonPratt]

Janusz Bugajski, an analyst at the Jamestown Foundation, posts up a short analysis of the three likely options for Ms. Dugina's removal, over at the Washington Examiner (via MSN):

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-internal-shadow-war-intensifies/ar-AA10WvMM?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=29ad6cae5b5447e1aa50c976561e4d7c

Moreover, attempts at full mobilization to expand the war may have the reverse effect by intensifying resistance against the regime. The worst news for the Kremlin would be a combination of all three threats — Ukrainian, internal, and systemic — in the midst of accelerating economic decline and escalating military losses.

At this point, I kind of want Putin to go for full mobilization: he only dreams he's had logistic and economic troubles so far! Going full mobilization would wreck the nation exponentially faster -- and put weapons in the hands of a bunch of people who might not want Putin and his cronies in charge anymore.


WaPo has a much longer article on the assassination and its blowback(s) today: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/22/russia-putin-bomb-cheerleaders-fear/

The agency posted video of the arrest of six men {who claimed Ukraine wanted them to assassinate an official asap}, one shown with bound hands, who stated they had orders from Ukraine to assassinate Solovyov "as soon as possible." In the apartment where the FSB said the arrests took place, the video showed a photo of Adolf Hitler, neo-Nazi literature, a red T-shirt with a swastika, guns, a blonde wig and three Sims DVDs. It caused waves on Russian state-owned television but was mocked by global observers as looking as if the alleged plot had been staged.

So... will that tank or surge the sale of the Sims series of games? Or even make those games relevant again??  >:D

A little more seriously, when I read that paragraph I heard the famous line from Minority Report: "We used to call this an orgy of evidence. You know how many orgies I had as a homicide cop?"

[MengJiao]

it took years in the making to happen but Pratt finally posted a short, clear and concise post about something!

I could have tried to
make the post a haiku, but:
that's so last decade.

Well...Turkey seems to be moving steadily into position as a mediator:



Turkey's Erdogan says return of Crimea to Ukraine is a requirement of international law
From CNN's Isil Sariyuce in Istanbul and Hamdi Alkhshali in Atlanta

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday reiterated Turkey's position that Ankara supports Ukraine's territorial integrity and rejects Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, according to the state-run Anadolu agency.

Erdogan said in a video message to the Second Crimea Platform Summit in Kyiv that Crimea must be returned to Ukraine.

"The return of Crimea to Ukraine, of which it is an inseparable part, is essentially a requirement of international law," Erdogan said

Erdogan said Ankara will continue to support the Crimean Platform, which was established to resolve the Crimean issue through peaceful means.

"Turkiye does not recognize the annexation of Crimea and has been openly stating since the first day that this step is illegitimate and illegal. This is a principled stance that has not only legal but also moral foundations," he said.
Erdogan added that protecting Ukraine's territorial integrity, sovereignty and political unity is "critical," not only for regional but also for global security and stability.

"Ensuring the safety and well-being of our Crimean Tatar compatriots is also among Turkiye's priorities," he said.

[JasonPratt]

What's Erdogan's position on the DonBas?

[Gusington]

^Also, the last line of Turkey's statement makes me shudder a little bit. If Turkey feels their Crimean Tatar compatriots are not safe, will they invade?

[Jarhead0331]

First we had to deal with "Kharkiv" then we were forced to say "Kyiv". Now we have to call it "Turkiye"?  What is going to happen next? Cats and dogs sleeping together?

[Gusington]

Sleeping together?? Jesus. I won't let them get as far as living together  :nerd:

[GDS_Starfury]

First we had to deal with "Kharkiv" then we were forced to say "Kyiv". Now we have to call it "Turkiye"?  What is going to happen next? Cats and dogs sleeping together?

we're far past that already.

[MengJiao]

What's Erdogan's position on the DonBas?

I guess if "territorial integrity" includes all of Ukraine's territory, then he would like to see the Russians leave all Ukrainian territory.  The Russians haven't even taken all the Donbas and they may
never take all the Donbas before they car-bomb themselves into oblivion.

[MengJiao]

First we had to deal with "Kharkiv" then we were forced to say "Kyiv". Now we have to call it "Turkiye"?  What is going to happen next? Cats and dogs sleeping together?

  Don't you mean catiyes and Turkiyes?  Oh and doggieyes!  Rutrow Shaggy!

[JasonPratt]

^Also, the last line of Turkey's statement makes me shudder a little bit. If Turkey feels their Crimean Tatar compatriots are not safe, will they invade?

...well, at this point Russia may be weaker than Turkey, so I guess it wouldn't count as two Great Powers going to war... World War Not-One? Not-Won?

Aw, heck with it: from a purely academic standpoint of 'what in the actual what-ery', I'd like to see that matchup! Maybe if the Turks take Moscow right before sunrise, Muslim nations around the world will add a second star to their Constantinople-memorial flag designs.  :)) Then all they'd need is First Rome to win the trifecta!

[Pete Dero]

Interesting. If it's a false flag op designed to sacrifice Dugin's daughter to goose support against Ukraine, per se (which is how Russia's government is marketing the attack, of course), it's a subtly unexpected one: Ukraine AND the partisan/terrorist group disavow Ukraine having any knowledge or action of the attack, which Ukraine kind of condemns. ("We don't do that kind of thing; we aren't terrorists.")

From a pragmatic standpoint, at least symbolically (pragmatic symbolism, heh), going after the author of Russia's current "national socialism" ideology does... feel... a lot like an internal civil war move.

Possibly connected to the upcoming expected catastrophic collapse of Russia's industries and key businesses, due to their 6-month reserves running out...? Should be starting about now.

I have no way of knowing of course, but I just think a political bombing in Moscow makes Putin look weak...and therefore a false flag to blame the Ukrainians is not something he would have chosen. Unless of course he wants to start going after Zelensky personally, or to use the bombing as a pretense to drop a few nukes.

As far as sacrificing his buddy's daughter? I don't think so. Not because Putin would care for her, but because it kind of breaks gangster rules (and in my simplistic way, I've always seen Russia as what it would be like if the mafia ruled a country). By that I mean, Dugina was one of his captain's daughters, and killing her would cause a break with Dugin. 

Still, pretty much everything the Russians have said has been a lie. So on that evidence alone, I think we can guess that it wasn't the Ukrainians.

.@holodmedia counts the days it took to name Daria Dugina's killer vs. the days spent looking for the people who ordered the assassinations of politician Boris Nemtsov, human rights activist Natalia Estemirova, and journalism Anna Politkovskaya.

[MengJiao]

^Also, the last line of Turkey's statement makes me shudder a little bit. If Turkey feels their Crimean Tatar compatriots are not safe, will they invade?

...well, at this point Russia may be weaker than Turkey, so I guess it wouldn't count as two Great Powers going to war... World War Not-One? Not-Won?

Aw, heck with it: from a purely academic standpoint of 'what in the actual what-ery', I'd like to see that matchup! Maybe if the Turks take Moscow right before sunrise, Muslim nations around the world will add a second star to their Constantinople-memorial flag designs.  :)) Then all they'd need is First Rome to win the trifecta!

  And this is weird:

Belarus President wishes Ukraine "a peaceful sky" on Independence Day
From CNN's Tim Lister

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on Wednesday issued a message congratulating the people of Ukraine on their Independence Day.

"I am convinced that today's contradictions will not be able to destroy the centuries-old foundation of sincere good-neighborly relations between the peoples of the two countries," Lukashenko said in a message on the presidential website. "Belarus will continue to stand for the preservation of harmony, the development of friendly mutually respectful contacts at all levels."
Lukashenko wished the Ukrainians "a peaceful sky, tolerance, courage, strength and success in restoring a decent life."

Some context: Belarus is an ally of Russia and the country was used as a launch point for the invasion of Ukraine in February. The country is host to a wide variety of Russian weaponry and Ukrainian officials have reported an increase in the deployment of Russian missiles at an airbase in Belarus in recent weeks.

[Gusington]

Reading that message in context, it sounds like a taunt or veiled threat.