Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

Speaking of Russian propaganda lies...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-claims-it-hacked-himars-rocket-launchers-that-s-probably-a-big-fat-lie/ar-AA113w46?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=cbcd11c17e8fa58e716bce03d2931789

No, they clearly haven't 'hacked' the HIMARS -- or even got a good counter-battery program going.


But they may be losing the war on purpose...?

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-defense-minister-sergei-shoigu-says-slow-pace-of-war-in-ukraine-is-on-purpose?source=articles&via=rss

...to minimize civilian casualties.  ::) ::) ::) ::) AAH, I SPRAINED MY EYES ROLLING THEM!! 

As Slash just noted (from Rep. Waltz and the Armed Services Committee), Russia could be stalling to let gravity-and/or-winter decide this. Also, Putin may have no more choice.

[Tripoli]

...

As Slash just noted (from Rep. Waltz and the Armed Services Committee), Russia could be stalling to let gravity-and/or-winter decide this. Also, Putin may have no more choice.

IMHO, this is exactly what he is going to do.  Ukraine doesn't have the ability/manpower to throw him out of his current gains.  Putin will depopulate and/or colonize the captured areas to the extent he can, annex the captured areas, putting them under the Russian nuclear umbrella, and freeze the Europeans and Ukrainians.  The partial counter to this is for the US to begin drilling and exporting energy to the Europeans. 

[Gusington]

'We're losing the war on purpose' is the most Russian thing I've read in the last 15 minutes.

[MengJiao]

...

As Slash just noted (from Rep. Waltz and the Armed Services Committee), Russia could be stalling to let gravity-and/or-winter decide this. Also, Putin may have no more choice.

IMHO, this is exactly what he is going to do.  Ukraine doesn't have the ability/manpower to throw him out of his current gains.  Putin will depopulate and/or colonize the captured areas to the extent he can, annex the captured areas, putting them under the Russian nuclear umbrella, and freeze the Europeans and Ukrainians.  The partial counter to this is for the US to begin drilling and exporting energy to the Europeans.

  Do they have to throw the Russians out or just blow up a lot of them?  While Russia still thinks hitting civilian stuff is worthwhile, the Ukrainians seem to be concentrating on rubbing out the
Russian capacity to do anything but shoot random HE at things.  It is possible that the more the Russians convince themselves they are winning, the faster they will collapse once it becomes clear
that they are not winning (at least in terms of having their war-fighting capabilities steadily eroded).  You can't go downhill forever and remain a credible force. 

[Gusington]

^If any country on Earth can steadily erode and yet fight on, it's the Russians...

[bobarossa]

^If any country on Earth can steadily erode and yet fight on, it's the Russians...

I don't think he can frame the current "military action" as a Great Patriotic War"  We are not seeing  WW2's will to fight in this conflict.

[MengJiao]

^If any country on Earth can steadily erode and yet fight on, it's the Russians...

  They've collapsed far more often than most large states:  1905(Russo-Japanese and revolution), 1917 (twice -- Tsarist and Provisional), 1918 (treaty with Germany), 1920 (loss of Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Finland), 1991.  That's six big collapses in the last 120 years.  Even the American Civil War didn't collapse the USA (just as a comparison).

[Gusington]

The will is definitely not there - but the Russians continue to go on the offensive.

The Ukraine War is the direct, most recent continuation of the 125 hears of history you posted above, Meng.

An 'imperial rebirth' in Putin's mind.

[JasonPratt]

Saw an article this morning (in USA Today, though can't find the link now) stating that Putin intends to... produce?... another 118 thousand troops for this year.

Well, he has around 70K fewer mouths to feed, so I guess this won't strain his logistics as much as it otherwise would have. Then again, his logistics have frayed so badly with 70K fewer mouths to feed, that almost another 120K might be much worse! At the very least, he should be putting those 118K on logistics duty. (And maybe harvest duty.)

I don't recall the article being clear about how Putin thought he was going to get them, by the way -- the writer speculated it would be by hiring volunteers.

[Sir Slash]

"Comrades! Do your part in the NEW Great Patriotic War by making more babies to grow-up and fight in it. Get busy for Mother Russia"!  :-*

[Gusington]

^ I can see that becoming real in the not too distant future.

[Tripoli]

...

As Slash just noted (from Rep. Waltz and the Armed Services Committee), Russia could be stalling to let gravity-and/or-winter decide this. Also, Putin may have no more choice.

IMHO, this is exactly what he is going to do.  Ukraine doesn't have the ability/manpower to throw him out of his current gains.  Putin will depopulate and/or colonize the captured areas to the extent he can, annex the captured areas, putting them under the Russian nuclear umbrella, and freeze the Europeans and Ukrainians.  The partial counter to this is for the US to begin drilling and exporting energy to the Europeans.

  Do they have to throw the Russians out or just blow up a lot of them?  While Russia still thinks hitting civilian stuff is worthwhile, the Ukrainians seem to be concentrating on rubbing out the
Russian capacity to do anything but shoot random HE at things.  It is possible that the more the Russians convince themselves they are winning, the faster they will collapse once it becomes clear
that they are not winning (at least in terms of having their war-fighting capabilities steadily eroded).  You can't go downhill forever and remain a credible force.

If the Ukrainians can some how bring about the collapse of the Russian army, then they might be able to throw them out.  The problem is that this is an attrition war, and I don't see how, given the correlation of forces,  the Ukrainians can create the required conditions to bring about a complete collapse of the Russian military's will to fight before their own will to fight is compromised.  I may be wrong on that, but I just don't see it happening right now.  Possibly the political will in Russia to continue the war can be made to collapse, but the public opinion polling doesn't show it (yet).

[ArizonaTank]

Saw an article this morning (in USA Today, though can't find the link now) stating that Putin intends to... produce?... another 118 thousand troops for this year.

Well, he has around 70K fewer mouths to feed, so I guess this won't strain his logistics as much as it otherwise would have. Then again, his logistics have frayed so badly with 70K fewer mouths to feed, that almost another 120K might be much worse! At the very least, he should be putting those 118K on logistics duty. (And maybe harvest duty.)

I don't recall the article being clear about how Putin thought he was going to get them, by the way -- the writer speculated it would be by hiring volunteers.

Easy...there are always those 100K North Koreans.... :D

[bobarossa]

Those 100k North Koreans would probably gain weight on Russian logistics.

[GDS_Starfury]

The problem is that this is an attrition war, and I don't see how, given the correlation of forces,  the Ukrainians can create the required conditions to bring about a complete collapse of the Russian military's will to fight before their own will to fight is compromised.

I think the Ukrainians can bring the needed amount of weight to bear but only on 1 axis.