Russia's War Against Ukraine

[FarAway Sooner]

That is nuts.  I'm happy to see it.  But that is a faster collapse than anything I would have expected.

It looks like Russia is a Paper Bear.

[SirAndrewD]

That is nuts.  I'm happy to see it.  But that is a faster collapse than anything I would have expected.

It looks like Russia is a Paper Bear.

They're being smart for once.

They're abandoning Kharviv and refocusing on the separatist oblasts.  They have local support there.

From here on they'll try to hold the south.  They're horribly exposed on the wrong side of the Dniper and may get degraded there.   But if they can hold on and get some line of supply, their next stage will be an operation aimed at Odesa. 

The Ukrainians have plenty of time between now and then to totally wreck that and I bet the will.

[FarAway Sooner]

As the Russians seem to be learning quickly...

they are?  ::)  not trying to be a dick but please... examples?
gold medal in running away without your equipment?
from what Im seeing the French right now are like "FUCK YA WE'RE NOT THE WORST ANYMORE!!!!!!

Dude, I'm not trying to be a dick either, but you need to read for the sake of comprehension rather than for the sake of disputation.

War is messy, unpredictable business.

As the Russians seem to be learning quickly...

For the record, I don't think that the Russian leadership are going to finish learning that lesson any time soon.  But they don't really care. 

The Russian Army seems to be receiving that lesson much more effectively at the moment.  Experience is a dear teacher, but fools will learn by no other.

The French are certainly relieved that the Russians seem to be taking the pole position in the military "Biggest Loser" contest.  I only hope that recent events continue and accelerate.  At some point, I suspect that logistics will have to catch up with the Ukrainians, so long as they actually have an opposing army still standing in the battlefield? 

[SirAndrewD]

For the record, I don't think that the Russian leadership are going to finish learning that lesson any time soon.  But they don't really care. 

Pretty much.  The biggest issue the Russians will have. they don't care about reality.  You have a bunch of officers and ministers all jockeying for position and saying they're right.  None of them were.  They all expected Ukraine to cave in under a week so now it's knives out in Moscow.

[GDS_Starfury]

[GDS_Starfury]

Dude, I'm not trying to be a dick either, but you need to read for the sake of comprehension rather than for the sake of disputation.

wasnt trying to be argumentative and sorry if it seemed so.

[MengJiao]

That is nuts.  I'm happy to see it.  But that is a faster collapse than anything I would have expected.

It looks like Russia is a Paper Bear.

They're being smart for once.

They're abandoning Kharviv and refocusing on the separatist oblasts.  They have local support there.

From here on they'll try to hold the south.  They're horribly exposed on the wrong side of the Dniper and may get degraded there.   But if they can hold on and get some line of supply, their next stage will be an operation aimed at Odesa. 

The Ukrainians have plenty of time between now and then to totally wreck that and I bet the will.

  Well, but look at the Russian options.  As usual, they have trapped themselves in an impossible bind (for like the 5th time -- i think they had this won if they had just not done anything,
now its just a question of how much they will lose -- and as usual, the more this goes on the more they lose).  So here's the current bind:  even if they hold on to most of what they have
at the moment and even if there is a "stalemate" and even if they take Odessa or something, the Russians have managed to set it up so that NATO and company have no choice but to make
sure Russia is totally defeated as fast as possible.  Is Western Europe going to want to spend decades fiddling "diplomatically" with whatever weird problems the Russians have?
The easiest answer and the best for the Russians is to bring in some kind of neutral party like the UN to supervise demiliarizing Crimea and so on -- but that's not going to fly.
Next best for the Russians is some kind of ceasefire with negotiations (which everyone knows is just letting the Russians win because they have linked their economic policies to
messing with Western Europe forever).  It's just so much easier and cheaper to give the Ukrainians enough to clear the Russians out and then go from there.
Now if the Russians suddenly wised up, they would detach their economic crap and say the war was over let's have a ceasefire -- but no, they are going to make it clear that the
only way to get Russian gas and oil is to get Russia out of Ukraine and start things over from where things were in say 2010.

[GDS_Starfury]

seems they've fucked off all the way to the border.  :))

[GDS_Starfury]

how its going or more accurately how it went:

[GDS_Starfury]

its 10:45 have they taken moscow yet?  <:-)

[Gusington]

I really wonder if the Russians now still are trying to pull 'yes this is all part of the plan' and are luring the Ukrainians into some kind of trap. Everything we have seen says 'no way' but I still wonder.

Also wonder if the Russians have enough resources to set up some kind of trap and then pivot towards Odessa.

[GDS_Starfury]

a simple no to all your questions.

[FarAway Sooner]

Gus, anything is possible in war, but if I were a betting man, I'd give you 5-1 odds on that bet, if not higher.

Star, all good man, thanks for the clarification.

[JasonPratt]

Hey, was there ever confirmation about the leader (president?) of the Donetsk's "People's" "Republic", Dennis Pushilin (I'm surely spelling that wrong) resigning yesterday (Saturday their time)?

Because, if so, that would not exactly be a massive endorsement of the expectation of Russia holding Donetsk.

[GDS_Starfury]