Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

HUZZA!!!  new Jomni maps!

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1569506286001070080

[Sir Slash]

I'm wondering if the Ukrainians will try to hold all this new territory they've liberated or fall back to a shorter line to defend? If they do, won't the Russkies simply return and reoccupy the parts not held? How much time's left until the weather gets bad?

[GDS_Starfury]

why would they not hold all of it?  it's their country!
with what formations are the russians retaking anything?

[Crossroads]

1st Guards Tank Army rendered combat ineffective. Wow.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1569550041194405890

[MengJiao]

If Russia breaks up it will be the exact opposite result of what Putin was gunning for when he started this. Perhaps karma is real.

  Well, the Ukrainians are across the Oskil south of Kupiyask (Kupiyansk? and Izium), so Putin better think fast...oops that's not going to happen.  Is it Karma or is it
quit while you are ahead?  Since apparently his aim in Ukraine was regime change, as soon as that failed he should have cut his losses and taken some
big diplomatic hits.  He still would have had all his gains.  Instead, apparently he decided genocide was a reasonable plan B.  Clearly that was a mistake
when the people you are trying to exterminate have even a moderate number of weapons roughly equivalent to yours.

[Gusington]

'Quit Before You Begin'

[MengJiao]

'Quit Before You Begin'

  Well, that would have been wise, but remember, it was generally believed in February 2021 that Russia could overrun Ukraine in a week or two.  It is possible
that somebody of an extremely Machiavellian sort in the US intel world might have suspected Russia was going to have some trouble...?  But how much?
Even in the wildest western dreams (mine for example) nobody outside of Ukraine seems to have thought the Ukrainians were going to totally wreck the
Russians in March 2021.  In some ways the Russian problem was obvious -- they attacked everywhere and the Ukrainians concentrated on defending Kyiv and Kharkiv.
Anyway, Putin could have stopped in March and probably held on to most of his gains.

[Tripoli]

'Quit Before You Begin'

  Well, that would have been wise, but remember, it was generally believed in February 2021 that Russia could overrun Ukraine in a week or two.  It is possible
that somebody of an extremely Machiavellian sort in the US intel world might have suspected Russia was going to have some trouble...?  But how much?
Even in the wildest western dreams (mine for example) nobody outside of Ukraine seems to have thought the Ukrainians were going to totally wreck the
Russians in March 2021.  In some ways the Russian problem was obvious -- they attacked everywhere and the Ukrainians concentrated on defending Kyiv and Kharkiv.
Anyway, Putin could have stopped in March and probably held on to most of his gains.

My 2 cents: Everyone believed that Ukraine would rapidly be overrun because, assuming even semi-competent military planning, they should have been.  My comment  is not to intended to distract to any degree the courage, tenacity and skill with which the Ukrainians have defended their homes.  Rather, it is to simply point out that the Russian's invasion plan was so incredibly bad, ignoring a multitude of factors and basic principles, that what should have been a relatively easy victory has turned into a very costly and embarrassing defeat, with potentially massive geopolitical repercussions.  See generally https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-ill-fated-invasion-ukraine-lessons-modern-warfare 

[MengJiao]

'Quit Before You Begin'

  Well, that would have been wise, but remember, it was generally believed in February 2021 that Russia could overrun Ukraine in a week or two.  It is possible
that somebody of an extremely Machiavellian sort in the US intel world might have suspected Russia was going to have some trouble...?  But how much?
Even in the wildest western dreams (mine for example) nobody outside of Ukraine seems to have thought the Ukrainians were going to totally wreck the
Russians in March 2021.  In some ways the Russian problem was obvious -- they attacked everywhere and the Ukrainians concentrated on defending Kyiv and Kharkiv.
Anyway, Putin could have stopped in March and probably held on to most of his gains.

My 2 cents: Everyone believed that Ukraine would rapidly be overrun because, assuming even semi-competent military planning, they should have been.  My comment  is not to intended to distract to any degree the courage, tenacity and skill with which the Ukrainians have defended their homes.  Rather, it is to simply point out that the Russian's invasion plan was so incredibly bad, ignoring a multitude of factors and basic principles, that what should have been a relatively easy victory has turned into a very costly and embarrassing defeat, with potentially massive geopolitical repercussions.  See generally https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-ill-fated-invasion-ukraine-lessons-modern-warfare

  Yep.  I think the Russians could have done much better in March 2022 (why did I think it was 2021?  Oh dear).  I'm not sure what the point was in attacking everywhere -- which I think was
their main problem -- they just set themselves up for defeat in detail (though of course they did take a lot of ground down south) around Kyiv and Kharkiv.

[Pete Dero]

I'm not sure what the point was in attacking everywhere -- which I think was
their main problem -- they just set themselves up for defeat in detail (though of course they did take a lot of ground down south) around Kyiv and Kharkiv.

I think they really believed they would be welcomed with open arms (like the recently liberated areas welcome the Ukrainian army).

[Tripoli]

I'm not sure what the point was in attacking everywhere -- which I think was
their main problem -- they just set themselves up for defeat in detail (though of course they did take a lot of ground down south) around Kyiv and Kharkiv.

I think they really believed they would be welcomed with open arms (like the recently liberated areas welcome the Ukrainian army).

That was one (of many) bad planning assumptions.  Basic intelligence preparation should have led them to question this assumption. I'm not sure how in this day and age they could have been so wrong on this point, or as a minimum, not have planned for the possibility that they were wrong on this point. The Russian invasion preparation and planning will be studied for generations in war colleges throughout the world as an example of how not to do it....

[Tripoli]

Possible Breaking News: https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1569684401134632963 {Note from Tripoli: I am not saying this is true, I'm just relaying it.
Reading the thread indicates that there is some debate over its veracity....}

ROAD CLOSED? Jason Jay Smart
@officejjsmart
reports that friends in Moscow have texted that: "The Ring Road around Moscow is closed by the National Guard". And that, " [he] hasn't seen anything like this since the 1991 coup".  Developing.

[ArizonaTank]

Possible Breaking News: https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1569684401134632963 {Note from Tripoli: I am not saying this is true, I'm just relaying it.
Reading the thread indicates that there is some debate over its veracity....}

ROAD CLOSED? Jason Jay Smart
@officejjsmart
reports that friends in Moscow have texted that: "The Ring Road around Moscow is closed by the National Guard". And that, " [he] hasn't seen anything like this since the 1991 coup".  Developing.

Maybe it's time for Xi to offer Putin a permanent vacation home in a remote part of the Huangshan Mountains.   

[JasonPratt]

"President Putin has gone to a farm up north where he can run and play freely!" -- Russviet news propaganda soon, probably.

I'm not sure what the point was in attacking everywhere -- which I think was
their main problem -- they just set themselves up for defeat in detail (though of course they did take a lot of ground down south) around Kyiv and Kharkiv.

I think they really believed they would be welcomed with open arms (like the recently liberated areas welcome the Ukrainian army).

Certainly that was a gravely mistaken ideological expectation. But it doesn't explain the knock-on-all-doors strategy. I think they were trying to overwhelm the government as quickly as possible, according to their other main expectation: that the government would collapse/evacuate leaving a vacuum for them to occupy.

I remember the initial news (posted long ago in this thread) and thinking, whoa, what?? A full-court press?? We had been disputing how much logistics the Rusks had built up to sustain an attack on a limited front, and suddenly they were operating on all the fronts?!

[Anguille]

Possible Breaking News: https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1569684401134632963 {Note from Tripoli: I am not saying this is true, I'm just relaying it.
Reading the thread indicates that there is some debate over its veracity....}

ROAD CLOSED? Jason Jay Smart
@officejjsmart
reports that friends in Moscow have texted that: "The Ring Road around Moscow is closed by the National Guard". And that, " [he] hasn't seen anything like this since the 1991 coup".  Developing.

Waiting to see this confirmed in an official news...but this would be bad