Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/he-has-flung-our-country-back-into-the-cold-war-era-kremlin-officials-ask-putin-to-resign/ar-AA11KpIR?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=3421acb20d31439c8836fb5b8a6e4d69

Ouch! -- Step x, piss off the Chechnyans??

"We, the municipal deputies of Russia, believe that the actions of President Vladimir Putin harm the future of Russia and its citizens," a translation of the petition reads. "We demand the resignation of Vladimir Putin from the post of President of the Russian Federation!"

In the open letter to Putin, deputies from Moscow's Lomonosovsky district recalled that Putin's leadership began with "good reforms" but that as time marched onward, "everything went wrong."

Even Ramzan Kadyrov, Putin's key ally in Chechnya, has started lobbing criticism at Russia's military.

"Mistakes were made," Kadyrov said on Telegram. "And if today or tomorrow changes are not made to the strategy of the 'special military operation,' I will be forced to turn to the leadership of the Ministry of Defense, the leadership of the country to explain to them the situation that is really happening on the ground."

Kadryrov better be careful, or he might slip and fall off his superyacht...

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-executive-falls-off-boat-in-latest-mystery-businessman-death-2022-9

[Sir Slash]

My point from last night was, barring a total collapse of the Russian military, and assuming this war will continue, how will Ukraine hold onto all that land they've just taken back? Especially if they now plan to strike in the south? Do they even have enough strength to hold what they have? And do they have time enough before the weather turns on them?

Whatever remnant of the Russian forces that escaped back to their side of the border, along with new levies, will be back again soon and if not stronger, then certainly wiser. What's Zelensky's best play here, hold everything, or find a shorter more defendable line for the winter? And anybody heard anything about they're losses?

[Tripoli]

My point from last night was, barring a total collapse of the Russian military, and assuming this war will continue, how will Ukraine hold onto all that land they've just taken back? Especially if they now plan to strike in the south? Do they even have enough strength to hold what they have? And do they have time enough before the weather turns on them?

Whatever remnant of the Russian forces that escaped back to their side of the border, along with new levies, will be back again soon and if not stronger, then certainly wiser. What's Zelensky's best play here, hold everything, or find a shorter more defendable line for the winter? And anybody heard anything about they're losses?

There is a pretty good article from a couple of months ago in Foreign Affairs that lays out some ideas of what a Ukrainian victory might look like from the political POV: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-06-06/what-if-ukraine-wins .  ALso, Bloomberg has an article (Which I have very quickly summarized/cut and pasted the juicy bits below) which looks at some of these issues from today's POV.  The most interesting point, IRT your question, is the decimation of the troops from the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics:

•   Putin and the Possibility of Defeat in Ukraine  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-09-12/in-ukraine-russia-pays-the-price-for-not-factoring-in-negative-scenarios  Key points:
o   The current Russian setback, too, is strategically significant.
   The loss of the Kharkiv positions turns the goal of encircling Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region into a pipe dream: Russian troops can no longer press on from the north.
   the Russians couldn't avoid damage to their already low morale.
o   Putin's soldiers are digging in on the eastern bank of the river Oskil, but the defensive positions lack depth, just as they did around Izyum.
o   Russia's biggest mistake in the  campaign will now likely come back to haunt them. Since the retreat from Kyiv and northern Ukraine in April, the Russian command has used the fighting forces of the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics as cannon fodder. By doing so, they have lost thousands of the only soldiers who had skin in Putin's game: These fighting-age men were anti-Ukrainian by definition — and committed to combat as fiercely as Ukrainians themselves. Few Russian soldiers could match their determination. When Kyiv began its counterattack, the Luhansk and Donetsk fighters had been nearly eliminated by attrition.
   Now, the Luhansk People's Republic, "apart from frontline areas, is probably empty of manpower," tweeted Polish military analyst Konrad Muzyka, one of the most astute observers of the campaign. Fighting-age males were drafted in large numbers in the past few months, he said, meaning "there are no men to fight in Luhansk."
   Now, even those locals who otherwise would have welcomed a Russian takeover will withhold their support. They will either lay low or aid Ukrainian guerillas. The loud assurances of many a Russian functionary since February that "Russia is here for good" ring hollow as the cars of fleeing collaborators line up on the border near Belgorod.               
o   Further supplies of sophisticated Western weapons are now assured for Ukraine. Kyiv has proved it's able to fight back and win, so there's no reason for NATO to doubt the efficiency of its aid.
o   In Russia, meanwhile, an angry and aggrieved extreme nationalist community is rapidly turning into a threat to the regime. ...Given the ultranationalists' high support in Russia's all-powerful law enforcement agencies, it's conceivable that discontent may be brewing among the very forces on which Putin has relied to hold on to power.
o   It's too early to predict a military rout for the entire Russian force in Ukraine, let alone a regime collapse. But suddenly, those are glimmers of possibility thanks to what is essentially a local Ukrainian success. This is a consequence of the most fundamental flaw in the thinking behind Putin's Ukraine campaign — if there was any thinking done at all amid all the imperialist emotion. Russia never took its opponent seriously, never even considered Ukraine a viable entity. So it never contemplated the possibility of defeat.
   No plans were made for pessimistic scenarios — and none seem to exist today. In a war, the side that isn't prepared for setbacks can come apart at the first signs of trouble; overconfidence and panic are opposite sides of the same coin. Russians went in without the will to win, but they were also not primed for the risk of losing. Any setback then becomes a catastrophic blow to national pride. This will rankle even if Russia manages to halt Ukraine's current momentum. These factors could be the ingredients of a historic defeat.

[SirAndrewD]

Kadryrov better be careful, or he might slip and fall off his superyacht...

We'd better hope so. 

Kadryov's solution to this isn't to seek a peace.  He is insisting that the Russians start the mass destruction of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and mass reprisals against Ukrainians in the occupied territories. 

His ideas are spreading in Russian media.  Check out their twitter and TV and you'll see a lot of Russian talking heads that are saying that the solution now is to start measures of mass  bombardment and extermination.   They may be getting their way, the last 24 hours have shown revenge strikes against Kharkiv's civilian infrastructure with no other purpose than to deny the city power and heat for the winter.

[SirAndrewD]

My point from last night was, barring a total collapse of the Russian military, and assuming this war will continue, how will Ukraine hold onto all that land they've just taken back? Especially if they now plan to strike in the south? Do they even have enough strength to hold what they have? And do they have time enough before the weather turns on them?

Whatever remnant of the Russian forces that escaped back to their side of the border, along with new levies, will be back again soon and if not stronger, then certainly wiser. What's Zelensky's best play here, hold everything, or find a shorter more defendable line for the winter? And anybody heard anything about they're losses?

Well, if you look at the area in the north they've liberated, they've largely managed to shorten their frontage, and if they advance will continue to do so as they press against the northern borders of Donetsk and Luhansk.  The fact that they have the Russian border to their backs isn't particularly an issue because, well, the forces that retreated back over the border did so in full disaray and largely abandoned their weapons and heavy equipment. 

I saw a report on DW last night where they showed the vast stores that the Russians simply abandoned.  They were not retreating in good order as the Russian MoD said, they were routed and left as a rabble. 

Further, the defense analysts on the DW report confirmed what others have been saying.  There are no large effective formations being formed or in standby to be shunted into the line to stop this or threaten the flanks of the advance.  The Russians had no reserves.  In fact, many of the units the Ukrainians were attacking were the reserves, and were units that were being rotated off the front line for rearmament that is now not coming. 

A counterattack at Kupyansk was immediately thwarted, and DW further reported that "The Russians are retreating in the north in some places faster than the Ukrainians can advance."

Now, this presents the challenge that the Ukes have to actually retake their territory and then shift their mechanized forces back to proper axes of advance to fully take advantage of the situation.   This takes time and yes, there's no doubt that they're vulnerable to counterattacks until they slow down and consolidate.  However, the Russians have to have forces available to counterattack with. 

Currently their army is either locked down in the south, stuck in offensive operations in the center, and routed in the north.  To fully counterattack they'd have to pull a Patton, take forces off an offensive, shift their advance entirely, and try to hit the Ukrainians in their southern flank north of Donetsk.   I don't see how that's going to happen. 

And Winter is coming.  That's going to slow operations down significantly on both sides and give the Ukrainians time to consolidate their gains. 

So...I think there's a very good chance that the gains in the north will hold unless the Russians have a pocket trained reserve army up their sleeve.

[JasonPratt]

They may be getting their way, the last 24 hours have shown revenge strikes against Kharkiv's civilian infrastructure with no other purpose than to deny the city power and heat for the winter.

Also known as "Monday". ;) The Russians haven't been wary about doing this sort of thing before (even in cases where they might have benefited from taking over things intact.) But yeah, they still have lottttts of room to escalate, too.  :-\  :hide:

I would almost like to see the hardliners try a true mobilization, though, like they keep whining for: trying to organize and keep those troops going would be exponentially nightmarish for them. Time to bring out the T-34s and glue on some reactive armor with empty plugs covered over with cardboard sometimes!

[Pete Dero]

Last night on Russian state TV (The Evening With Vladimir Solovyov) :

Appearing on Russia's NTV show The Meeting Place on Monday, policy analyst Viktor Olevich surmised: "Unfortunately, the situation is difficult. Can we say that the Russian forces moved closer to meeting the goals and carrying out the tasks set by the president at the beginning of the special operation—or did they get further away? Obviously, we're now further away."

Bogdan Bezpalko, member of the Council for Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, was even more outspoken. "For two months, Ukrainian Armed Forces and military equipment have been massing in that area, all Telegram channels have been writing about it. Where was our damn reconnaissance? All of their heads should be laying on Putin's desk, hacked off at the base... Of course, this is a tactical defeat. I hope it will be very sobering."
Political scientist Sergey Mikheyev described recent developments in Kharkhiv as "a serious failure," on the part of Russia. "Call it 'regrouping' or whatever else... This is our most serious defeat during the last six months, and the most significant success of our adversary... Perhaps this failure is beneficial, because being so obvious, now it's impossible to pull the wool over our eyes, pretending that everything is wonderful," he said.

Mikheyev argued that failures would likely prompt "serious people" to make some "radical decisions," like striking Ukraine's civilian infrastructure—a move that is often praised on Russian state TV, with propagandists promoting the idea of causing a total blackout that would deprive all of Ukraine of roads, bridges, electricity and running water.

Solovyov was unwilling to concede Russia's defeat to the Ukrainian troops and claimed that American and British soldiers were covertly fighting in their ranks. "In the process of preparing the battle-ready Ukrainian troops, it turns out they've been rapidly turning darker in color and becoming fluent English speakers. They're becoming indistinguishable from the mercenaries... Some of them have a Southern drawl, others speak with a British accent. Stop pretending already," he said. The idea of being defeated by NATO, as opposed to this smaller neighboring country, seems to sweeten the pot for many of the Kremlin's cheerleaders.

[FarAway Sooner]

In attacking everywhere, I think the Putinistas anticipated something like their previous occupations of the Donbas, Georgia, Syria, or other similar places.  It was more of a land-based "shock and awe" approach to occupation than an actual military campaign to fight through organized resistance.

For the last several months, it was obvious that the Ukrainians were running down their inventory of Russian equipment (and particularly artillery ammunition).  They basically had to keep fighting the war while they were swapping out all sorts of key logistical chains.  They're clearly still fighting with a lot of Russian-made equipment (which seems to be performing admirably when maintained and used by well-motivated troops), but my bet is that they needed to amass a critical volume of materiel (and particularly ammo) before they could resume warfighting.

It'll be interesting to see where this stops.  Were I Ukraine, I think I would cross the Russian border by 5 or 10 miles in a few key places, then stop and channel their attacks elsewhere.  It would drive home to the Russian people the fact that Putin's Army had been vanquished in the Northeast, but deny Russia the whole "We're fighting for our survival" excuse to go nuclear.

I only hope that the Russians don't go more extreme than they already have.  I also hope that, if the Russians do go more extreme (and particularly if they go nuclear), the world holds the Chinese accountable for helping to enable them these last seveb months.  That's probably going too far, though...

[SirAndrewD]

It'll be interesting to see where this stops.  Were I Ukraine, I think I would cross the Russian border by 5 or 10 miles in a few key places, then stop and channel their attacks elsewhere.  It would drive home to the Russian people the fact that Putin's Army had been vanquished in the Northeast, but deny Russia the whole "We're fighting for our survival" excuse to go nuclear.

I'm willing to bet money that they've been told by NATO not to do that. 

NATO does not want to see German Marders rolling through undisputedly Russian territory.   

Those border areas are likely being made "safe" for the Ukrainians by what I'm sure is a massive exchange of surveillance data gathered by western spy satellites.   If the Russians start massing for a push in an area along the border the Ukes are going to know about it, but that flow of intelligence and gear is likely contingent on making sure there's no escalation by crossing the border with troops. 

[bobarossa]

crossing the border = existential threat to Russia = possible use of nukes

[Windigo]

I'm not sure what the point was in attacking everywhere -- which I think was
their main problem -- they just set themselves up for defeat in detail (though of course they did take a lot of ground down south) around Kyiv and Kharkiv.

I think they really believed they would be welcomed with open arms (like the recently liberated areas welcome the Ukrainian army).

I believe that was their undoing. Mentally they were not prepared for any significant resistance. Everyone believed the propaganda.

[Windigo]

My point from last night was, barring a total collapse of the Russian military, and assuming this war will continue, how will Ukraine hold onto all that land they've just taken back? Especially if they now plan to strike in the south? Do they even have enough strength to hold what they have? And do they have time enough before the weather turns on them?

Whatever remnant of the Russian forces that escaped back to their side of the border, along with new levies, will be back again soon and if not stronger, then certainly wiser. What's Zelensky's best play here, hold everything, or find a shorter more defendable line for the winter? And anybody heard anything about they're losses?

I am not certain it will go that far. The UAF have huge momentum and they are rolling up the Soviet defences in the North and Central. Supply to the Soviets will be none existence. Logistics wins wars. The Soviets are done. IMO it now is a matter of time. Depends now on just how low the troops morale is.

I think the UAF will proceed as far as possible, hold onto the lines of communication once the rains really start and starve the Soviet troops out and accept all the surrendering forces.

Stepping back a bit, the UAF have performed incredibly well; supported by Western intel and high tech weapons.
The Soviet Airforce on the other hand, like WTF? And mean it seriously... W.T.F.? Canada and its CF-18s would have done better/accomplished more. Not sure what neutered them throughout the conflict, IMO there should have been 100s of sorties a day.

[Pete Dero]

The Soviet Airforce on the other hand, like WTF?

Russian Su-25 Crashes in Crimea (should be recent footage).

From the comments : 'It's not a crash, it's a special landing operation'.

[MengJiao]

For the last several months, it was obvious that the Ukrainians were running down their inventory of Russian equipment (and particularly artillery ammunition).  They basically had to keep fighting the war while they were swapping out all sorts of key logistical chains.  They're clearly still fighting with a lot of Russian-made equipment (which seems to be performing admirably when maintained and used by well-motivated troops), but my bet is that they needed to amass a critical volume of materiel (and particularly ammo) before they could resume warfighting.

  The fact that the Russians knew that the Ukrainians had to swap out their Soviet-era gear for Western weapons might explain how the Russians missed the build-up around Kharkiv -- they may have assumed the new gear was just replacing things rather than being brought in for an offensive.

[GDS_Starfury]

My point from last night was, barring a total collapse of the Russian military, and assuming this war will continue, how will Ukraine hold onto all that land they've just taken back? Especially if they now plan to strike in the south? Do they even have enough strength to hold what they have? And do they have time enough before the weather turns on them?

Whatever remnant of the Russian forces that escaped back to their side of the border, along with new levies, will be back again soon and if not stronger, then certainly wiser. What's Zelensky's best play here, hold everything, or find a shorter more defendable line for the winter? And anybody heard anything about they're losses?

well here in the real world the Ukranians have been striking in the south while ALSO running their offensive in the north.  you seem to think its the Ukraine thats suffering massive casualties in both manpower and equipment.  there is also absolutely no evidence that the russians will come back stronger.  :DD  they cant even replace combat losses with modern kit and their conscripts are refusing to go to the Ukraine.  methinks you need to stop getting war news from tucker the taint tanner.  O0  and they sure as hell aren't going to come back wiser if they haven't learned a damn thing in 7 months of warfare.  its an institutionally bankrupt system.

here is a full list of equipment lost by both sides.  its very conservative as each thing is verified by multiple sources.
full list of aviation losses for both sides as of Sunday:
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html

full list of qround equipment lost by the Ukraine so far:
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html

full list of ground equipment lost by the soviet pig fuckers so far:
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html