Russia's War Against Ukraine

[MengJiao]

'NATO does not want to see German Marders rolling through undisputedly Russian territory.'

^The great fear (Russian fear) that started this whole thing!!

Well.....Sweden and Finland to nato kinda of means this war has no point anymore.  Russia cut off it's nose to spite it's face.

  And the European union has proposed it should include Georgia (which sort of isn't exactly in Europe as it is usually visualized, but which does have Russian "Peacekeepers" attending to its status as a place that
might be in Europe sort of)

  And of course, the internet being the internet wondered what "race" the Georgians were (since they are in the Caucasus are they perhaps "Caucasian"?...who's to say?)

  According to wikipeidia, Georgia has a long way to go:

The EU asked Georgia to complete economic reforms including more investment in education, renewable energy generation, and transportation. Requested political reforms included reduced political polarization, election reforms, judicial reform, stronger anti-corruption institutions, implementing "de-oligarchisation", reducing organized crime, protect journalists from government interference and criminal threats, protect vulnerable groups against criminal human rights violations, improve gender equality, reduce violence against women, increase decision-making influence of civil society, and make the Public Defender more independent.[110]

[Gusington]

Russian 'peacekeepers' in Georgia is very 2008 and is also very similar to German peacekeepers anywhere circa 1938.

Not to be outdone, Armenia and Azerbaijan smacked each other around the last couple of days and dozens of troops on both sides were killed. Russian 'peacekeepers' are on the ground there too.

Please keep political bs out of this thread.

[GDS_Starfury]

Russia still has a whole hell of a lot of men, tanks, planes, and rockets. And Nukes. If they have the will to continue, they certainly can, even with all the experts saying they cannot.

but they don't, that's what you don't seem to want to acknowledge.  it's also not free thinking to simply ignore rafts of information that have been provided to you proving that point.

[Pete Dero]

And the European union has proposed it should include Georgia

They take part in the Eurovision Song Contest.  How much more European can you be  :).

In 2009 they had to withdraw from the contest (held in Moscow) because they didn't want to change the lyrics of their song :

The chorus of the Georgian song is:

We don't wanna put in,
Cuz negative move,
It's killin' the groove,
I'm gonna try to shoot in,
Some disco tonight,
Boogie with you.

And that was blasphemy to the Russian organizers (singing live it sounded more like 'Shoot him' what didn't help).

https://www.theguardian.com/music/2009/mar/11/georgia-eurovision-song-contest-2009

[FarAway Sooner]

A more sobering article from a Ukrainian journalist can be found here.  It acknowledges the recent gains, but still sees a long and uncertain road ahead for the Ukrainian people.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/14/ukrainians-russian-occupiers-ambush-enemy-guns-resistance

One relevant passage here for those who are allergic to following hyperlinks!   ;D

Make no mistake, though: it's not an easy path. Ukrainian soldiers are fighting and dying. Scrolling through my Facebook feed, I learned about the death of a fellow soldier of two of my friends, killed in the Kharkiv region during the past few days, and read about members of the national opera joining the army.

I have found that the most excitement is expressed by international experts, diplomats and correspondents. Ukrainians are hopeful but wary. Every one of us has a friend, a relative or somebody we know fighting on the ground at the moment, somebody whom we are unable to contact, or who might be sent on assignment.

[MengJiao]

A more sobering article from a Ukrainian journalist can be found here.  It acknowledges the recent gains, but still sees a long and uncertain road ahead for the Ukrainian people.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/14/ukrainians-russian-occupiers-ambush-enemy-guns-resistance

One relevant passage here for those who are allergic to following hyperlinks!   ;D

Make no mistake, though: it's not an easy path. Ukrainian soldiers are fighting and dying. Scrolling through my Facebook feed, I learned about the death of a fellow soldier of two of my friends, killed in the Kharkiv region during the past few days, and read about members of the national opera joining the army.

I have found that the most excitement is expressed by international experts, diplomats and correspondents. Ukrainians are hopeful but wary. Every one of us has a friend, a relative or somebody we know fighting on the ground at the moment, somebody whom we are unable to contact, or who might be sent on assignment.

  Yes.  I read the whole article twice.  Good points.  Another sobering thought is that the Russians might wise up and come to some reasonable objectives.  I'm not sure how that would look, right now Peskov the press-man for the Kremlin says Ukraine should forget about being assisted by the west and it would be much safer for Ukraine to just surrender (or actually he doesn't say that explicitly which
I guess is supposed to make it sound more menacing) because the "Kyiv regime" somehow knows what the Russians really want (which is more than the Russians seem to have ever known -- what?  Extermination?  Regime Change?  Half the country?  What?  Nobody knows and certainly the Russians have no idea what they want).  So if the Russians could figure out what they are doing that might be good or bad for Ukraine.  Who's to say?

[Windigo]

its just so fun to keep reading.  :hug:

years to rebuild .....

[Windigo]

Russia still has a whole hell of a lot of men, tanks, planes, and rockets. And Nukes. If they have the will to continue, they certainly can, even with all the experts saying they cannot.

but they don't, that's what you don't seem to want to acknowledge.  it's also not free thinking to simply ignore rafts of information that have been provided to you proving that point.

I remember thinking that the Soviets must be holding back on the numbers of men and equipment. Then slowly realizing that it wasn't going to show up because they didn't have it. What they had they were pissing away very stupidly.

RIP 1GTA - let down by leadership rot, stupidity and corruption.

[JasonPratt]

Russia still has a whole hell of a lot of men, tanks, planes, and rockets. And Nukes. If they have the will to continue, they certainly can, even with all the experts saying they cannot.

but they don't, that's what you don't seem to want to acknowledge.  it's also not free thinking to simply ignore rafts of information that have been provided to you proving that point.

Russia definitely still has a whole hell of a lot of men -- mobilization hasn't kicked in yet. They also have a whole hell of a lot of nukes.

Not sure about their numbers of planes and tanks in reserve; we know they were scraping the bottom of the barrel sending tanks to the Ukraine -- and up until I heard about the 1st Guards Tank Army, I thought they were keeping their elite reserve out of play. No idea about rockets and arty still remaining in reserve.

What they definitely don't have is logistics to support a bigger push, and that's going to take serious time (maybe several years, maybe a decade-plus!) to develop, especially if it's going to be done right. Which they'll have to learn to do right, and be motivated to do right. Right now, those are super iffy. Thus I've been half-seriously joking that I'd like to see them go for mobilization and suffer the results thereby: suicide by mobilization!

There's also the question of how much of their reserve key equipment (tanks and planes, probably also arty, maybe also nukes) are even functional in storage. We've seen problems with stuff they've pulled out to send to invade the Uks. It's like the Russians are a cargo cult at this point...! (Even the Warhammer 40K version of "orks" look more competent!) But how much of that is endemic across Russia, and how much are they keeping up to par instead? The condition of the 1st GTA doesn't bode well for them as an example.

On the flip side, the question about holding ground was asked in relation to how it's a lot easier to concentrate force for points of attack than to create and maintain defense for borders in depth: thus, do the Uks have depth-defense capability remaining? (Thus also why jokes about the Uks taking Moscow are so funny: the Russians probably don't have defense in depth, so the ridiculous seems plausible now!) I assume the Uks at least have the potential to build it up, but how long will that take? They have a lonnnnnnng border with hostile forces now that Russia has gone to war (for want of a better word ;) ), and they're making that border longer, not shorter, as they retake ground. The good news is that the population of Crimea might be helpful (I guess? or that's my impression??); but we know the Uks are also hot for retaking the Donetsk/Lubansk (they've already moved over the borders in some places). How likely will those populations be to cooperate with defensive preparations to hold the ground? It might shift to more hostile populations the farther eastward the Uks go.

[FarAway Sooner]

Yeah.  The Russians have plenty of people that they can put in uniform.  They probably even have plenty of rifles, even if they're imported from China or North Korea nowadays.

It's unclear if they have the institutional capability to find their ass with their own two hands.  Aside from a handful of well-trained units (facing varying degrees of combat exhaustion by now), it's unclear how much of a credible fighting force they have left.

The extent of the Russian failure here hasn't just been an indictment of their leadership or their military.  It's been a damning indictment of how inept their whole system is.  The Soviet Union fell for much the same reason.

That said, even an ineptly-executed nuclear war would still plunge all of Europe (or all of the world) into some unimaginably bad situations.  While it seems almost unthinkable that the Russians would resort to such extremes, it seemed almost unthinkable that they'd be getting their asses kicked in Ukraine over and over when they first invaded in February.

[JasonPratt]

The extent of the Russian failure here hasn't just been an indictment of their leadership or their military.  It's been a damning indictment of how inept their whole system is.

Very well put.  O0


Edited to add: we were hearing stories back in February about how the Soviet military is (understandably, in context) being constantly bullied by the Russian gangster network, to keep the military from rising up to throw out the kleptocracy. We know the top military guys are compromised, but they also very vocally want Russia to ranger up to world-class ass-kicking capability. (Spetznaz up? hard to say if that's even a relevant comparison anymore! -- which is another illustration of how bad off they are.)

That isn't impossible, strictly speaking, but first they've got to get out from under gangster rule; and then they've got to build a true industrial base; then a true logistical base.

In 25 or 30 years (five or six Five-Year Hero Project Plans), they could be ready to go. But in today's world, you've got to have a stably functional nation at all levels to compete militarily. Not so sure they can pull that off, from the momentum of their past history. Stalin nearly did, but he also murdered Russia in several ways to get as far as he did (and had lots of western help along the way) before the Nazis invaded. They need to do better than Stalin, and that means doing better than gangsters running the country into the ground.

The Paradox player side-of-my-mind looks at all their so-far-wasted potential and wants to have a go at it!  But all things considered, maybe it's just as well for the world that they never quite got off the ground.

[MengJiao]

Yeah.  The Russians have plenty of people that they can put in uniform.  They probably even have plenty of rifles, even if they're imported from China or North Korea nowadays.

It's unclear if they have the institutional capability to find their ass with their own two hands.  Aside from a handful of well-trained units (facing varying degrees of combat exhaustion by now), it's unclear how much of a credible fighting force they have left.

The extent of the Russian failure here hasn't just been an indictment of their leadership or their military.  It's been a damning indictment of how inept their whole system is.  The Soviet Union fell for much the same reason.

  Well, on the other hand, let's suppose that what they were aiming at in February 2022, was to get a regime in place like what they have in Belarus.  Belarus isn't doing much of anything but there it is
more or less under Putin's supervision if not exactly under his control.  At least it's not working hard to be neutral unlike say Khazakstan.
  It's hard to say why they went off track with that.  I mean from their point of view adding another Belarus to the world shouldn't be a big deal.  Maybe this is the thing (nudge-nudge) that the
Ukrainians should have understood.  I think the Russians sort of got stuck with the threat dial stuck on "MAXIMUM" because they thought that would work -- I guess that backfired or something.
  Okay so...right.  Now, what have they got?  Belarus is still Belarus (so far so good)...they still have Crimea and Transititria and most of those two other quasi-annexed regions.  Surely a ceasefire right
now would be a good idea right?  I mean even if they have nukes and whatnot, they still can supervise Belarus and hold Crimea and stuff if they get a ceasefire right now.  There's nothing at all to be gained by bringing up more stuff to go on dumping HE on Ukraine, right?

[Skoop]

Gee Star, I'm sorry if I spoiled the woody you had about killing Russians. My question was an honest one concerning the possible continuing war and the possibility of the Ukraine having too much land to defend effectively. In other words, to you the most dangerous kind, one you don't agree with. My question didn't come from Tucker Carlson. It came out of my own feeling that this war isn't over. Russia still has a whole hell of a lot of men, tanks, planes, and rockets. And Nukes. If they have the will to continue, they certainly can, even with all the experts saying they cannot. So how does wondering about strategies openly constitute treason in some people's minds? It's because people like that think for themselves instead of following blindly what self-loving loudmouths spout.

Watching Tucker Carlson doesn't make you a Putin-Lover or a voice for the Kremlin. That was actually Hillary that paid for Russian dis-information remember? And just for the record, Tucker's been right a hell-of-a-lot more often than you have Star. But nearly as funny I'm sure.

I watch tucker as well, in fact if you pull up the rant about China buying up insane amounts of US real estate recently, I'd 100% agree with him on that.

I just wanted to point out as a conservative, I've been finding myself at odds with other conservatives on the issue of Ukraine specifically, and stars tucker link pointed that out.  The summer stalemate with inflation in the US was creating some wavering rhetoric that I was noticing among  the conservative echo chambers.  But there's plenty of historical lessons where the battlefield influences politics.

Ok, enough politics from me.

[Sir Slash]

Carlson's views have always been more toward the Libertarian side of things, less than true Conservative. I also don't agree with him on all issues including some of his positions on this war as well. But he's never taken a pro-Putin position and opposes the war in general as none of the America's business though Europe's, yes, certainly. He has questioned the cost of the war and whether or not all the money and weaponry is getting into the correct hands and will make a real difference.

The discussion of where the war goes from here is all I was trying to prompt. Rather than ask questions that make people uncomfortable, I'll simply say, in my opinion, Russia's not done here. The prize of Ukraine and all her resources is too great a lure to quit now even without a Tank Army or two. Short of the Russian Army turning it's guns, ( I know in the army you're supposed to say,'Rifles') on their own leadership this war will go on. And I'd rather have the Ukes in a better position defensively than scattered  all to hell and gone trying to hold every village. But, hey, it IS their land so...

[Pete Dero]

https://www.newsweek.com/putins-key-man-artic-found-dead-after-falling-overboard-1742218

The bizarre incident came just a few months after Igor Nosov, the corporation's director, died at the age of 43. Russian media reported at the time, citing those who knew Nosov, that he died of a stroke.

It also happened just a few days after Pechorin took part in the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok attended by Putin.

Pechorin now joins a long list of Russian executives to die in strange and mysterious circumstances.

Ravil Maganov, the chairman of the board of Lukoil, Russia's second-largest oil company, died in a plunge from a hospital window in Moscow earlier this month. Several other gas and oil execs had died in the months prior, including, to name just a few, Alexander Subbotin, a former top Lukoil executive who was found dead in May; Vladislav Avayev, the former vice president of Gazprombank, found dead of a gunshot wound in Moscow in April, along with his wife and daughter; Sergei Protosenya, the former deputy chairman of gas company Novatek, found hanging in a villa in Spain in April; and Gazprom executive Alexander Tyulyakov, found hanged in his St. Petersburg garage in February.


https://www.thedailybeast.com/vladimir-nikolayevich-sungorkin-ally-of-vladimir-putin-dies-of-apparent-stroke-on-business-trip?ref=home

Another top ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin has died this week, this time of an alleged "stroke" while on a business trip in the village of Roshchino in Russia's far east region.

It is stroke season in Russia ...