Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

I don't have access to the position paper itself, but I heard a summary with some excerpts read on a podcast yesterday, written by an official in the Chinese government (translated to English), arguing that not only is the Russian government going to collapse, but the result will start an economic chain reaction for China (which is already in the process of happening) that will make it flatly impossible to 'retake' Taiwan by any means including even blockade to force a surrender. Thus the recommendation of this author was that China had better accept reality now, retrench, and fix its internal problems, rather than trying to play tiger games with the West -- but ultimately the author was optimistic that if China did this, they'd come out very much stronger.

The implication, based on other things China is trying to do, is that they'll now get plenty of control-expansion opportunities into mainland Asia.

So ultimately a very bullish 50ish year plan (by implication), at the end of which they'd be able to expand as they wish elsewhere than land-Asia to take over ze wurrrld in a carefully stepped-off way bit by bit (since they're also well on the way to crippling the US by many softer 'war' methods -- China has regarded itself as being at active war with the US and other western nations for something like 20 years now, just not in a direct-action military sense.)

Personally I doubt China can overcome its own crippling economic time bombs, but it was an interesting way for them to try to concede that they need to put off Taiwan again for the foreseeable future and deal with their own crisis-opportunities.

[GDS_Starfury]

wow, youre getting succinct in your old age.  ;)
I happen to concur that the chinese are better off picking up the dropped fruit of russian asiatic territories then trying to confront a much more unified Pacific Rim front backed by the US and Japan.

[GDS_Starfury]

while Germany has gotten a lot of flak for not seeming to help the Ukraine with more weapons heres a list of whats been donated so far:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/09/fact-sheet-on-german-military-aid-to.html

tasty line item:  100 155mm PzH 2000s (Purchased by Ukraine from Krauss-Maffei Wegmann through the security capacity building fund)

[Crossroads]

while Germany has gotten a lot of flak for not seeming to help the Ukraine with more weapons heres a list of whats been donated so far:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/09/fact-sheet-on-german-military-aid-to.html

tasty line item:  100 155mm PzH 2000s (Purchased by Ukraine from Krauss-Maffei Wegmann through the security capacity building fund)

Just in: two more M270 MARS systems and 50 Dingo MRAPs. So those can be removed from the To-be-delivered list. More importantly, seems these are not empty promises, then. Here's hoping for a quick delivery of those 100 PzH 200 SPAs  O0

Edit source for instance https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/verteidigungsministern-lambrecht-deutschland-liefert-raketenwerfer-und-gepanzerte-fahrzeuge-an-ukraine-8647081.html

[GDS_Starfury]

another worthwhile read:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/15/politics/us-ukraine-aid-weapons/index.html

[ArizonaTank]

I don't have access to the position paper itself, but I heard a summary with some excerpts read on a podcast yesterday, written by an official in the Chinese government (translated to English), arguing that not only is the Russian government going to collapse, but the result will start an economic chain reaction for China (which is already in the process of happening) that will make it flatly impossible to 'retake' Taiwan by any means including even blockade to force a surrender. Thus the recommendation of this author was that China had better accept reality now, retrench, and fix its internal problems, rather than trying to play tiger games with the West -- but ultimately the author was optimistic that if China did this, they'd come out very much stronger.

The implication, based on other things China is trying to do, is that they'll now get plenty of control-expansion opportunities into mainland Asia.

So ultimately a very bullish 50ish year plan (by implication), at the end of which they'd be able to expand as they wish elsewhere than land-Asia to take over ze wurrrld in a carefully stepped-off way bit by bit (since they're also well on the way to crippling the US by many softer 'war' methods -- China has regarded itself as being at active war with the US and other western nations for something like 20 years now, just not in a direct-action military sense.)

Personally I doubt China can overcome its own crippling economic time bombs, but it was an interesting way for them to try to concede that they need to put off Taiwan again for the foreseeable future and deal with their own crisis-opportunities.

One of the "unknown unknowns" in China's strategic path is the influence of ultra-nationalism. Sections of Chinese society including the military are just itching to fix old perceived insults. The US is probably not even at the top of thier target list; that distinction probably goes to Japan.

Some China watchers have maintained that most of the recent saber rattling by Xi's government has been to please these nationalists.

It is possible that in the near future, Xi might take actions that seem illogical or even self-destructive, except when ulta-nationalism is factored into the calculation.

[Sir Slash]

If Russia does collapse, what are the odds then of a new federation lead by Zelensky and Ukraine? A Russian  collapse would leave him in the driver's seat as the big winner and only alternative in the region. Or would it? 

[Windigo]

they need more copium.
hows this coming out of russian forces around Kherson.

If the Soviets are aware, then the UAF knows they are aware. Can't wait to see what they have in store for the Orcs. Unlike the Soviets, the UAF has options.

[al_infierno]

If Russia does collapse, what are the odds then of a new federation lead by Zelensky and Ukraine? A Russian  collapse would leave him in the driver's seat as the big winner and only alternative in the region. Or would it?

Very low I would think.  I don't see Ukrainian forces reaching Moscow quicker than internal forces in Russia can sort themselves out and end up with a new leader.

[Anguille]

If Russia does collapse, what are the odds then of a new federation lead by Zelensky and Ukraine? A Russian  collapse would leave him in the driver's seat as the big winner and only alternative in the region. Or would it?

Don't believe Russia will collapse. Putin however may have to resign

[GDS_Starfury]

resign by open 11th floor window hopefully.

[SirAndrewD]

If Russia does collapse, what are the odds then of a new federation lead by Zelensky and Ukraine? A Russian  collapse would leave him in the driver's seat as the big winner and only alternative in the region. Or would it?

Zero.  Less than that actually. 

First, the Ukrainians and Russians are NOT one people.  That's being made very clear to the Russians right now.  There are deep, extreme divisions between them that go back centuries.  Russians no more want to listen to a Ukrainian voice of leadership than the Ukrainians want to listen to a Russian. 

Second, Zelensky is going to have his hands beyond full if he wins this war.  The areas near the front lines were devastated by Russian scorched earth tactics, several cities have been reduced to essentially rubble, and now that the Ukrainians have liberated a large swath of territory, we're starting to hear of some really ugly stuff that was going on behind the lines.   Serbian style Ethnic cleansing was at least on the Russian radar if not starting in some places.

Even if some coalition of Russian or ex Russian states looked to Ukraine for leadership, I'd wager they'd give them the middle finger and just get to burying their dead and rebuilding their cities.  They have no interest in looking to the East for brotherhood any longer.

[Windigo]

They (the Russians) have a lot to answer for. War reparations will be steep.

[JasonPratt]

I doubt the Uks want leadership per se, but an economic confederation with disaffected Russian satellites might be useful. Kazahk was making some noises earlier, teasing secession. It would be interesting to see Putin's BUMK plan go completely the other way (even if Belo doesn't join in eventually).

[JasonPratt]

resign by open 11th floor window hopefully.

9mm stroke.