Russia's War Against Ukraine

[SirAndrewD]

I doubt the Uks want leadership per se, but an economic confederation with disaffected Russian satellites might be useful. Kazahk was making some noises earlier, teasing secession. It would be interesting to see Putin's BUMK plan go completely the other way (even if Belo doesn't join in eventually).

Ukraine can achieve that easily by just fully joining the EU and NATO. 

That's going to be the irony here.  Putin wanted to stop the spread of both cold in their tracks with this war.  The result is going to be the opposite.

[Gusington]

^And the possible breakup of the Russian Federation.

[SirAndrewD]

Slava Ukraini Intensifies....

[GDS_Starfury]

hard to sit through this:

[GDS_Starfury]

quiet news day, dont expect much until Sunday.

[FarAway Sooner]

I don't see any way that Zelensky takes over Russia, or even much of Russia.  Only a madman drives 450 miles into a country that's got thousands of nuclear warheads to be used in self-defense.

That said, I do think that Zelensky was pretty well positioned before the war to "court" the Russian people.  He was born in a Russian-speaking household. 

More importantly, he was a Ukrainian movie star.  Which basically means he made shows for Ukraine, and if they were successful there, he then spent most of his career touring Russia, trying to break into the TV market that's four times as large as his homeland!  Realistically, before becoming the President of Ukraine, he'd probably spent much more time on Russian TV shows and promoting his work to Russian audiences than he had to Ukrainian audiences.

How the Russians feel about him after the war ends will depend on how internal Russian politics shakes out.  The hardline Russian nationalists will always hate the guy, but Russian sentiment can be a fickle monster.  It's almost impossible to know who will succeed Putin over the long term, or how they'll behave.

[Sir Slash]

The Russians may have to choose between turning to the West or be consumed by the East. Zelensky may look better and better to them the further west Chinese influence spreads. But Sir Andrew makes a good point, how will the Russians ever be considered worthwhile partners after their behavior in Ukraine?

[GDS_Starfury]

[GDS_Starfury]

all attacks repulsed.

[MengJiao]

The Russians may have to choose between turning to the West or be consumed by the East. Zelensky may look better and better to them the further west Chinese influence spreads. But Sir Andrew makes a good point, how will the Russians ever be considered worthwhile partners after their behavior in Ukraine?

   Actually, outside of Putin's apocalyptic crew, Russia has plenty of options.  Basically, the country just needs to calm down and cut its losses...they should be fine.  Turkey, Iran, India, and China will all be
happy to help Russia regain its perspectives.  It's true the whole Russia-as-super-power thing will have to be dropped, but in the long run, that's probably going to be a good thing.  The country that is
a wreck is Ukraine and they were not in such a great situation even before the Russians blasted the place, which would be why the Russians thought a king-sized Belarus might be a good thing.  They were clearly wrong, but that opens up the whole can of such things as "Does even Belarus want to be a Belarus?  What about Transnitria?  What about Khazakstan?"  -- none of those places have a stable future in the near future.  And what about all those nukes laying around in Russia or whereever they are?  Clearly these are huge problems and at the moment nobody but maybe China sort of has a handle on them.

[FarAway Sooner]

The Russians won't ever give up their nukes (except in one-off, black market transactions).  Especially after what we saw happen to Ukraine, any country that has nukes and gives them up is signing itself up for needless mortal peril.

[Windigo]

The Russians won't ever give up their nukes (except in one-off, black market transactions).  Especially after what we saw happen to Ukraine, any country that has nukes and gives them up is signing itself up for needless mortal peril.

The go forward lesson for the Ukraine is "get some".

[Gusington]

^They gave them up...to the Russians!

[SirAndrewD]

Well, I wish I could say I wasn't expecting stories like this. 

Russians in Izium with parting gifts of last minute reprisal executions of civilians and a mass grave with 400 bodies. 

[MengJiao]

The Russians won't ever give up their nukes (except in one-off, black market transactions).  Especially after what we saw happen to Ukraine, any country that has nukes and gives them up is signing itself up for needless mortal peril.

   Looking at Wikipedia, 3 out of 4 countries that gave up control of nukes seem to be okay (South Africa, Belarus, Khazakstan -- okay so far -- Ukraine might have oughta kept theirs -- but in  fact they affirmed their adherence to the NPT after 2014!  ):

Belarus had 81 single warhead missiles stationed on its territory after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. They were all transferred to Russia by 1996. In May 1992, Belarus acceded to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).[117] On 28 February 2022, Belarus held a constitutional referendum, in which it dropped its "Non-nuclear" status, in light of Belarusian involvement in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.[118]
Kazakhstan had 1,400 Soviet-era nuclear weapons on its territory and transferred them all to Russia by 1995, after Kazakhstan acceded to the NPT.[119]
Ukraine had "as many as 3,000" nuclear weapons deployed on its territory when it became independent from the Soviet Union in 1991, equivalent to the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world.[120] At the time Ukraine acceded to the NPT in December 1994, Ukraine had agreed to dispose of all nuclear weapons within its territory. The warheads were removed from Ukraine by 1996 and disassembled in Russia.[121] Despite Russia's subsequent and internationally disputed annexation of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine reaffirmed its 1994 decision to accede to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as a non-nuclear-weapon state.[122]
In connection with their accession to the NPT, all three countries received assurances that their sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity would be respected, as stated in the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. This agreement has been criticized as ineffective since the Russo-Ukrainian War began in 2014, during which Russia annexed Crimea, occupied Eastern Ukraine, and in 2022, invaded the remainder of the country with no direct response.[123][124][12