Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

Some odd news of Putin's car being struck somehow in his convoy a few days ago. Rather tabloidy sources, don't know of any confirmation yet.

Contrast to Zelensky's car also being struck in a convoy a few days ago, which was confirmed by Ukraine and other sources (though it's unclear how intentional the impact was by another vehicle which went on out of control to hit some other things.)

No source indicates serious harm to anyone from these events.

[Gusington]

^Just saw that Izium special report on NBC. Horrible.

[JasonPratt]

The Kyiv Independent on Sept 14 released Russviet losses, by Ukrainian estimates (take those for what they are worth) -- a small percentage of some tallies still unconfirmed on that day (e.g. 350 troops):

54K troops
2185 tanks
4668 APC
1301 arty (non-missile, towed and sp)
311 missile
233 cruise missiles
169 AAA
248 wing
218 rotary
15 naval
912 UAV
123 special equipment (e.g. dedicated retrieval, combat eng)
3533 support truck (incl fuel carriers)

Worth noting, Russia started this 'special op' with 4000 official support trucks.

[GDS_Starfury]

I stick with oryx on twitter for comparative losses.  its very much on the conservative side.

[Gusington]

~4700 APCs??

[JasonPratt]

I stick with oryx on twitter for comparative losses.  its very much on the conservative side.

Agreed, and reasonable. What are they up to on the tallies right now?

~4700 APCs??

BTs to burn!  8) (The newspaper called them APV in translation to English letters, but I assume it's equivalent "Vehicle" instead of "Carrier".)

The logistic strike against the dedicated military support trucks/tankers seems kinnnd-of right to me. We've noticed since... gosh, as early as February...? that the Orcs had started using civvy trucks surprisingly much. But of course, I can't tell if the newspaper report includes captured civilian trucks/tankers destroyed while being used by the Russians, which would naturally skew the tallies.

[JasonPratt]

Video of Russian cruise missiles not-yet-destroyed by Ukraine -- cracking apart one of the dams at Kryvyi Rih. Disastrous levels of flooding. Unsure if there was a supply road over the dam, or if the orcs were just being orcs...

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/xe9mvv/footage_of_russian_cruise_missiles_demolishing/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

(Courtesy of the Enforcer a couple of nights ago.)

[JasonPratt]

General Petraeus comments on the Uk push and whether the Orcs can even find a safe fallback area (in front of their own borders of course).

He also grants that Russia could mobilize its troops, in theory, although that would in itself take many months; but in practice he doubts they'd have the equipment to work with, much less the logistics which would take a lot longer to prepare for supporting a full mobilization. Whether Russian internal morale/discipline would improve enough to allow mobilization is also up in the air: right now, morale is toast, and it's hard to imagine what could be done to improve it any time soon.

(Though I could imagine Putin nuking one of his own cities and blaming it on the West. It wouldn't hold up to any real scrutiny, but a lot of his people don't have any way to know that.)

[Crossroads]

I posted earlier about the Russian "armed forces" in Ukraine not being a cohesive structure. Came upon this excellent post describing this in more detail.

For instance:

To begin with, I want to stop calling the Russian army what invaded Ukraine and continues to fight now on the side of Putin. This is not the army of the Russian Federation, this is a kind of military group in which the army does not command everywhere and not always. Let's start with this.

1. The lack of a unified command. During the three summer months, it became completely clear that the Russian group included several military formations. Which not only do not have a single command, but often are at enmity with each other.

Here are these groups:

- Regular army of the Russian Federation
- Militia of the "DPR"
- Militia of the "LPR"
- PMC Wagner
- National Guard + "Kadyrovtsy"

Like the army of Darius III, fighting against Alexander the Great, they speak different languages ​​- they cannot understand and accept the goals and each other's values.

And further on:

Let's summarize. The Russian army in Ukraine is not a single mechanism, but several groups that have their own commanders, control system and their own structure. Some have heavy weapons. Others don't. The third have only transport, and the fourth are homeless by the fires without socks.

For some, war is work for money and pleasure (PMCs), for others it is forced obligation (LDNR), others do not understand at all what they are doing here (Army), and the National Guard may be well motivated, but in itself not very combat-ready.

Therefore, it is difficult to expect good interaction between these groups. What, Prigozhin will work on the orders of some general there? Yes, he personally answers Putin, who is this general to him? Or OMON, they are responsible to Zolotov, their losses are not even taken into account in the military.

Hence the failures in communication, the slow response (until they reach an agreement at the top) and the lack of universality. How do you throw the Russian Guard at enemy tanks? And will PMC Wagner go to die for the sake of a platoon from the "DPR"? A scattered army is always a big problem.

Hence, with their better regular formations at Kherson, they fight in a cohesive manner. Elsewhere, it is likely one big mess. Potemkin's Army. And they are not addressing this root cause at all. Instead we're seeing teenage lieutenants graduating early from Academy sent to command armed convicted criminals...

Here's the original source: https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/1570372266206302208

Threadreader + Translate:

https://threadreaderapp-com.translate.goog/thread/1570372266206302208.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[GDS_Starfury]

a fair amount to consider.  good find.  :bd:

[Gusington]

Teenaged LTs and convicts...what could go wrong?

[Sir Slash]

Russians regrouping? I thought they were all out of soldiers?  :o   ::)

[bobarossa]

Russians regrouping? I thought they were all out of soldiers?  :o   ::)

Just trained ones.   And equipment that isn't older than the soldiers.

[GDS_Starfury]

Russians regrouping? I thought they were all out of soldiers?  :o   ::)

well when your regrouping in Belgorod its a sign that things arent going well for the russians at all.
but please, continue being wrong in your thought processes.

[GDS_Starfury]

and in Izyum.....