Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

consolidate current results or push for more with an army that wasn't prepared for that.

it would seem theyre doing both and not over committing to a full pursuit.

[GDS_Starfury]

a fairly good brief:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1571563669783474177.html

[GDS_Starfury]

todays possibilities:



Situation west of Lysychansk:
Ukrainian forces are in full control of Bilohorivka and are attempting advances in three directions.
It is reported Russian forces are attempting counterattacks from Novodruzhesk direction.

[fran]

Thanks for posting, made for an interesting read. ;)

a fairly good brief:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1571563669783474177.html

[FarAway Sooner]

A very interesting thread on Russian railway based logistics network towards Ukraine. Now, if only Ukraine could continue their thrust over the Oskil river and cut the railway from Valyuki hub (RU) to Luhans, the Russians would be in deep trouble there. Here's hoping.

https://twitter.com/warnerta/status/1571318703173541889

That is an interesting read.  Thanks for sharing.  It's grown pretty obvious that making the Russians truck logistics more ton-miles puts a serious strain on their supply chain.  It's unclear whether their rail capacity is anywhere near the same level.  My sense is that the Russians still have capacity (in terms of engines, rolling stock, and rail repair resources) to boot in that regard.

As you suggest, the easiest way to cut a rail line is to physically occupy it.  After that, in the absence of aerial superiority, you have a few other options for disrupting supply lines, in descending order of effectiveness:

1) Blow up rail bridges crossing water (there's a reason nobody uses the phrase "pontoon railroad bridge")
2) Bring rail yards within range of more conventional artillery
3) Bring rail yards within range of long-range artillery (e.g., HIMARs)
4) Bring rail lines within range of #2 or #3 above

As for #4:  Rail lines are hard to hit, very durable, and pretty easy to repair.  #4 can still cause troubles, but without aerial superiority to go after the rolling stock on the move, it's very hard.

Your initial point remains:  Getting across the Oskil is a necessary next step to disrupting the logistical chain at Valukyi.

I don't have any sense for how the Ukrainian logistical chain will shake out after they've had a couple weeks to repair things and move transport forward.  I think a lot of the Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure in the Donbas region haven't been just intended to punish the people, but also to impede the logistical network. 

[JasonPratt]

Breaking news: Russian version of Madonna even more horrifying than US version!

https://fortune.com/2022/09/19/alla-pugacheva-russia-singer-slams-putin-ukraine-war-russia-pariah-maxim-galkin/

But just as outspoken.   ^-^

[JasonPratt]

In actual war news, Ukraine now claims to control the eastern bank of the Oskil:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-forces-take-control-of-key-river-bank-extending-advance-in-east/ar-AA11ZHgb?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=5a6b3c0569774dcbb1092c68ee53d514

Somehow this article also features Mrs. Pugacheva...  ??? ??? ???

More importantly: "Early Monday morning, Ukrainian officials said, a Russian airstrike hit the Pivdennoukrainsk nuclear power plant in Ukraine's southern Mykolaiv region.

"Energoatom, Ukraine's nuclear energy company, said Russian artillery struck about 300 meters from the power plant just after midnight Monday morning. The reactors remained undamaged but the blast shattered the plant's windows and disconnected three power lines, the company said."

[Gusington]

^Jesus f*cking Christ, Russia :/

[Pete Dero]

^ This wasn't Russia.  This was Ukraine trying to make Russia look bad for the 20,450th time. 

According to Russia  :pullhair:.

[Gusington]

They really are a danger to the whole planet  :timeout:

[al_infierno]

Jesus f*cking Christ, Russia :/

This could easily be the new name of the thread.

[Pete Dero]

They really are a danger to the whole planet  :timeout:

[Gusington]

 

[Windigo]

^Jesus f*cking Christ, Russia :/

I share that reaction.

[JasonPratt]

^ Almost seriously: Russia's strategic slogan.