Russia's War Against Ukraine

[FarAway Sooner]

My bet is that the Vatican stays neutral.  They need the tax exemptions.   ;)

I've honestly had very sinister suspicions of the Chinese for a long time now, but I see nothing about their conduct in this conflict that makes me feel anything but wholly confirmed in that opinion.  Their actions express utter indifferent to anything the Russians have done, and I wouldn't expect that to change just because the Russians nuke a few hundred thousand civilians in a war of conquest that they begun.

I'd love to be proven wrong.

[SirAndrewD]

"The March of Folly" : I expect we will see tactical nukes and possibly some chemical strikes from Russia before this is over. Since troop density seems to be pretty spread out, not certain how effective they will be...except it will piss off most of the world. Also bring Austria and Switzerland into Nato...heck maybe even the Vatican.

I fear the same. 

At the very least the Russians will now legally be able to deploy conscripts to the combat zones as it will mean "Russia" is under attack.

Meduza reports that internally the Russian MoD has already begun taking steps for full mobilization. 

Putin's apparently about to come on state run TV and make another long address with announcements in the next few minutes.  This is the first time he's done something like this since he launched the invasion. 

[Jarhead0331]

Shout out to the New York Guard at 27:30. 

[Gusington]

^Seriously? I'll have to watch for that later.

I pray that you're all wrong on the nuke talk.

What is Maduza?

[Pete Dero]

I pray that you're all wrong on the nuke talk.

Every time I'm in danger of feeling better, I come to this thread and the danger is gone  :'(.

[SirAndrewD]

What is Maduza?

Meduza is an Independent Russian News outlet that serves as journalistic opposition to Putin's regime and operates out of Riga.

[Jarhead0331]

^Seriously? I'll have to watch for that later.

Well, he references the South Carolina State Guard, but those state organizations are pretty much all interchangeable.

[Gusington]

Except TX...TXSG reportedly have armor and Apache attack helicopters.

Thanks D, I learn a lot in this, the most frightening thread in the world...as Pete says above.

[Windigo]

"The March of Folly" : I expect we will see tactical nukes and possibly some chemical strikes from Russia before this is over. Since troop density seems to be pretty spread out, not certain how effective they will be...except it will piss off most of the world. Also bring Austria and Switzerland into Nato...heck maybe even the Vatican.

I fear the same. 

At the very least the Russians will now legally be able to deploy conscripts to the combat zones as it will mean "Russia" is under attack.

Meduza reports that internally the Russian MoD has already begun taking steps for full mobilization. 

Putin's apparently about to come on state run TV and make another long address with announcements in the next few minutes.  This is the first time he's done something like this since he launched the invasion.

There is nothing legal about what they are planning to do. It looks good on paper, but it's a PR exercise... propaganda with an attempt to sway opinion and legitimize their criminal/insane activity. It's as deceptive as Joseph Goebbels decrying the bombing of Dresdan, knowing they were carrying out their final solution crap.

[SirAndrewD]

There is nothing legal about what they are planning to do. It looks good on paper, but it's a PR exercise... propaganda with an attempt to sway opinion and legitimize their criminal/insane activity. It's as deceptive as Joseph Goebbels decrying the bombing of Dresdan, knowing they were carrying out their final solution crap.

The "legal" aspect is purely for Russian internal purposes. 

Russian conscripts are by Russian law, not allowed to be deployed in any operation that is not directly defending Russian territory.   This is why Putin was so mad when it was discovered that a few conscript units were conned into participating in the initial invasion. 

Currently any conscript who refuses to fight in Ukraine can be transferred or dismissed, but not prosecuted for desertion or refusal to obey orders. 

This move will allow Russia to deploy Conscripts under pain of prosecution if they refuse to enter combat since they'll be technically be used for "defense of the motherland".   

So, regardless of how this is recognized in international law, and as much of a sham as this is, Russia will be using this to clear internal hurdles that have been putting a strain on their manpower.

Up to 25% of the Russian army has thus far, but Russian law, been unable to be deployed in any manner except to guard the border. 

[Tripoli]

There is nothing legal about what they are planning to do. It looks good on paper, but it's a PR exercise... propaganda with an attempt to sway opinion and legitimize their criminal/insane activity. It's as deceptive as Joseph Goebbels decrying the bombing of Dresdan, knowing they were carrying out their final solution crap.

The "legal" aspect is purely for Russian internal purposes. 

Russian conscripts are by Russian law, not allowed to be deployed in any operation that is not directly defending Russian territory.   This is why Putin was so mad when it was discovered that a few conscript units were conned into participating in the initial invasion. 

Currently any conscript who refuses to fight in Ukraine can be transferred or dismissed, but not prosecuted for desertion or refusal to obey orders. 

This move will allow Russia to deploy Conscripts under pain of prosecution if they refuse to enter combat since they'll be technically be used for "defense of the motherland".   

So, regardless of how this is recognized in international law, and as much of a sham as this is, Russia will be using this to clear internal hurdles that have been putting a strain on their manpower.

Up to 25% of the Russian army has thus far, but Russian law, been unable to be deployed in any manner except to guard the border.

It will also make a negotiated settlement more difficult.  As Ukraine and Russia both claim the annexed areas to be national territory, it will be difficult for either to give up their respective claim, making a negotiated solution difficult, if not impossible.

[al_infierno]

This is why Putin was so mad when it was discovered that a few conscript units were conned into participating in the initial invasion. 

Is this the consensus?  Given that Russian intel pre-invasion seemed to believe there would only be token resistance, I assumed Putin was aware of conscripts participating in the invasion, then tried to save face once it became clear they weren't up to the job.

[SirAndrewD]

It will also make a negotiated settlement more difficult.  As Ukraine and Russia both claim the annexed areas to be national territory, it will be difficult for either to give up their respective claim, making a negotiated solution difficult, if not impossible.

Exactly.  It pretty much nullifies any negotiated settlement not based on Ukrainian capitulation to Russian demands.  To make matters worse the "Governor" of Zaporizhzhia says they'll declare independence in anticipation of annexation if these referendums succeed, and we all know they will.   The only question is if the vote is 98.9% pro or 99.9% pro.

It'll also be setting Russia up for a massive, regime threatening embarrassment if they lose significant swaths of the annexed oblasts.  It makes defeat there now so politically devastating that Russia has no choice but to use whatever means necessary to prevent that outcome. 

This is the Russian equivalent of Cortez burning his ships.  The stakes for a Russian defeat are now so dire that any almost any strategy for victory can be justified by the Kremlin.

Is this the consensus?  Given that Russian intel pre-invasion seemed to believe there would only be token resistance, I assumed Putin was aware of conscripts participating in the invasion, then tried to save face once it became clear they weren't up to the job.

It was surely a case of anger after the fact.  Had the invasion gone the way they wanted, no one would even know conscripts had been sent in under false pretense contracts.  Still, it seems this was a move by the MoD and not Putin himself.  Putin has been very careful of the public image of the invasion and didn't want conscripts used early on because of the potential PR fallout. 

[JasonPratt]

I'm seriously surprised Putin hadn't moved to annex those breakaway puppet 'republics' years ago.

I suppose some kind of deal was cut with the puppet governors to wield the power locally as a facade of independence, and now that they're resigning (did that Donetsk guy actually resign? -- never saw confirmation of it) or being otherwise threatened there's no reason to keep them independent-in-appearance anymore.

[Crossroads]

Alexey Navalny on Russia's very own Suicide Squad they are recruiting for Wagner from Russian prisons:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1572141900051750915.html