Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

[ArizonaTank]

No nation-state or group has claimed responsibility.

Meanwhile, Andrei Kortunov of the Russian International Affairs Council think tank, told the BBC that such an attack by Russia would make no sense.

The Russians do kind of have a point in this case: they can just keep the gas turned off, why waste it and hurt their own equipment?

An interesting theory I heard on the BBC today is that if the Russians just cut off the gas (as they might want to do), they will receive hefty fines from their delivery contracts with Europe. However if there is 'sabotage'...they can claim 'force majeure' and don't pay the fines.

[JasonPratt]

^ True, you and Star have a good point. I couldn't figure out an angle -- I just don't think in terms of contracts. (I'm not against contracts, I just don't work in contracts often enough to think about contracts as context.)

Although, on the other hand, so what if they receive fines? How would those be enforced?

On yet the other hand, such a move by the Russians could be considered as implying they know they're going to lose the western European market permanently, in effect, so why not go ahead and get some (perceived) useage out of blapping their own pipelines? That could be any number of things, including something like a scorched earth policy to deny the immediate benefits of the pipelines to Putin's successors!

The scary angle to this theory, is that if they think they're going to necessarily be this much of a rogue nation now, what limits do they have to work within? To paraphase the old saying, if they're gonna be hung as a goat or as a bigger goat...


Meanwhile, if Russia didn't do it, my own bet would be China using proxies (perhaps of proxies).

[SirAndrewD]

Lyman now by all indications encircled with two front line Russian formations completely pocketed.

[al_infierno]

Lyman now by all indications encircled with two front line Russian formations completely pocketed.

If Steiner attacks, everything will be all right.

[MengJiao]

No nation-state or group has claimed responsibility.

Meanwhile, Andrei Kortunov of the Russian International Affairs Council think tank, told the BBC that such an attack by Russia would make no sense.

The Russians do kind of have a point in this case: they can just keep the gas turned off, why waste it and hurt their own equipment?

An interesting theory I heard on the BBC today is that if the Russians just cut off the gas (as they might want to do), they will receive hefty fines from their delivery contracts with Europe. However if there is 'sabotage'...they can claim 'force majeure' and don't pay the fines.

  Or maybe its an insurance scam.  Well, things are very odd.  I'm guessing (since it makes little sense), the Russians did it.  And let's look at the array of current, senseless Russian
efforts:

1) Why defend Lyman at all?  Much less with their best troops?  Was it to protect the region to be annexed? 
2) Okay...the pipeline, it makes little sense, but who else but the Russians have any interest in messing with the flow of gas to Western Europe?
3) Annexing...so you can have an excuse to waste your best troops?
4) Annexing...so you can have an excuse to nuke something?
5) Nuking something...so NATO will intervene?
6) Annexing...so that the UN will have even more reason to toss you out of the Security Council?
7) Getting Tossed out of the Security Council...so you can Nuke something (see above)?
8) drafting random people...because at least it is none of the above?

[SirAndrewD]

Wow, yes they have done it....

It's now widely confirmed the UAF broke through on the Siverskyi Donets line south of Kreminna.  They also took Yampil.

That's massive.  The Siverskyi Donets was considered an obstacle they'd be unable to cross until they had significant pressure from their salient from the north.

If the Russians didn't rescind the no retreat order and evacuate the Kuban Regiment and the LNR Cossacks they're totally cut off. 

[SirAndrewD]

The UAF also pushed north from Kupiansk and expanded their northern beachhead over the Oskil.

They're now clearly displacing the Russian defensive line on the Oskil reservoir.   With Lyman now encircled and the Siverskyi Donets line broken, they've now eliminated the natural obstacles to Svatove and Starbolisk. 

This breaks the Russian flank in their offensive on the Donbas "Republics" on the same day Putin will annex them.

[Jarhead0331]

Putin is living in the Matrix, an alternate world from reality. It sort of reminds me of Hitler in his bunker moving around phantom divisions that no longer exist on the map.

Under ordinary circumstances, it would be amusing...but the more the conventional military outlook deteriorates for Russia, the more dangerous the situation actually becomes.

[JasonPratt]

Business Insider sort of supports my 'China blapped Nordstream' theory as an aside in this article on the market effect of the sabotage:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/europe-energy-crisis-russia-nord-stream-sabotage-natural-gas-prices-2022-9

(The Reuters article linked by BI, where International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol said it's "very obvious" who did it, is only a stub, by the way: everything in the two or three lines of Reuters is quoted by BI. Chief Birol doesn't say who he thinks did it.)

If China thinks they're going to pull their economy out of the toilet drain later this year, they're going to start competing that-much-more for Russia's LNG over the next year, so would be pleased with an opportunity to screw over Western Europe's energy supplies at the same time. Besides, China is selling Russian LNG to Europe by tankers! -- the loss of the Nordstream pipes (at least for a while) bringing gas directly without a middle-man, would be a big advantage there.

[Anguille]

Putin is living in the Matrix, an alternate world from reality. It sort of reminds me of Hitler in his bunker moving around phantom divisions that no longer exist on the map.

Under ordinary circumstances, it would be amusing...but the more the conventional military outlook deteriorates for Russia, the more dangerous the situation actually becomes.

I've been watching parts of the signature ceremony, Putin's speech and the concert in Moscow....this is really sick. As you say, an alternative reality. 

[Con]

One school of thought that came up as an answer to the gas pipeline bombing is that by Russia blaming the West for bombing their pipeline they are now free to use this as a false flag to respond in kind
Meaning North Sea oil/gas rigs, pipelines, tankers, infrastructure etc becomes a viable target.  That would be a major escalation and blow to Europes energy for winter.

Con

[Con]

I do like this T Shirt

[SirAndrewD]

Hitler 2, Electric Boogaloo.

[SirAndrewD]

I do like this T Shirt

Is that a penis?