Russia's War Against Ukraine

[FarAway Sooner]

One way or another, Staroblisk seems to be the major logistical hub that the Ukrainians are aiming for next.  (I'm just channeling Sir Andrew here, honestly) 

If they take that before Winter, consolidating their gains and getting supplies to their front-line armies becomes much easier.  I wonder, at what point would the Russians in Southern Ukraine simply be cut off?

[SirAndrewD]

Staroblisk would be the big prize.  However, there are other ways to cut the rail lines outside of taking it.  A lot of softer targets to the north.

Still, if they grab Staroblisk they make the entire north part of the front pretty much impossible to hold without the Russians trying to organize some counter invasion back over the border.  If they try that US intel will warn them very heavily in advance as it's already warned them about the new Motor Rifle Division being mustered in Crimea. 

In the south they're already, for all intents and purposes, cut off.  The only supply they get there is by ferry and air, and as they're losing the riverfront, the ferry access is getting less and less tenable. 

They'll want to take Kherson before the winter if they can.

[GDS_Starfury]

well the russians are taking this page right out of the nazi playbook.
recovered from one of their torture sites in a liberated town in Donestk.

[GDS_Starfury]

this gif is a fair bit interesting.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1577369014502055937

[GDS_Starfury]

another nuclear article.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/10/putin-nuclear-weapons-threat-us-sanctions-military/671642/

[JasonPratt]

this gif is a fair bit interesting.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1577369014502055937

It's certainly off the chain! -- though it's missing some special fireworks (so to speak) which would doubtless be released around the 1 minute mark.  :hide:

[MengJiao]

another nuclear article.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/10/putin-nuclear-weapons-threat-us-sanctions-military/671642/

  And the sub:

  https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/10/new-images-reveal-russias-missing-submarine-belgorod-in-arctic/

[JasonPratt]

Probably deserves its own thread, but considering the Norks (of all people) may be Russia's most (relatively) reliable ally at the moment, the fact that the... um... Sorks(?) screwed up their own retaliatory test launch looks very weak:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/seoul-s-reprisal-blows-up-after-north-korean-missile-success/ar-AA12BowA?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=e0f273fabeac421e900d5a49881b7b31

This was a short-range missile, that crashed inside an airforce base (apparently from where it shot off) shortly after launch. The warhead did not explode, only the propellant.

It should be noted that the Sorks say four other similar missiles were successfully shot, among other joint exercises with the US. (The USS Ronald Reagan was involved with join exercises earlier this year, and has been ordered back into nearby waters after NK threw that ballistic missile over Japan.)

I didn't know that North Korea has launched 40 ballistic missiles across 20 tests since Russia invaded back in February.

[JasonPratt]

Meanwhile, Step.... where were we, 11? 12?

Step 13: tick off the Chechens enough that they want to team up with the Cossacks against you!

6D Quantum Strategy will soon be Wictory!  :hide:

[Tripoli]

According to the "Indications and Warning" twitter feed, there are unconfirmed reports that Russian officers are/have fled their units at Snihurivka.  If true, that strongly indicates the morale of the units there is now really bad, and they will start retreating, especially given the lack of reported lack of Ukrainian strikes along P-81.  The ground support strikes in the Mylove sector and west of Kherson is interesting.  Russian AD must be seriously compromised for this level of air support.



[Addendum]: There are reports that Snihurivka has been secured by the Ukrainians.  I'm not sure I believe them, but the reports are out there.  If true, the Russian defenses in the Kherson region are completely broken, and the actual city of Kherson is next.  https://twitter.com/wartranslated;  https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia; 
{Addendum 2]: I'm seeing other TINT (Twitter Intelligence) stating that Snihurivka has not fallen, but that fighting is going on in the NW portions of the city.  See https://twitter.com/EdwardWeinert/status/1577668364922658818   That seems more likely to me.  However, I suspect it will fall soon.  My guess is the Ukrainians have not hit the P-81 road to encourage the Russians to begin leaving.  As Snihurivka is reportedly fortified, this makes sense-Giving the Russian troops an exit beats fighting them dug in the city
[Addendum 3]: A little T&A (Twitter Analysis-what did you think I was referring to? ::) )  from MG Mike Ryan (Australian Army) on the DOnbas and Kherson offensives.
  https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1577528519671701504

[Tripoli]

And an interesting analysis of a possible Ukrainian military strategy moving forward:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11278851/How-Ukraine-achieve-victory-against-Russia-according-experts.html

[Jarhead0331]

well the russians are taking this page right out of the nazi playbook.
recovered from one of their torture sites in a liberated town in Donestk.

This is the ugly face of war. I know of Marines who collected gold teeth from the mouths of Japanese soldiers (both living and dead) in the Pacific theater. So, while I'm not defending the practice, I wouldn't say it is a practice that comes out of the "nazi playbook". It comes out of the playbook of war, which tends to bring out the worst...and the best...of humanity.

[Anguille]

That's disgusting....the lowest possible.

[Sir Slash]

The Ukes leaving the Orcs an escape route reminds me of the Mongols doing the same tactic so they would run from battle more quickly and then ride-down their enemies after they took flight.  O0

[JasonPratt]

This is the ugly face of war. I know of Marines who collected gold teeth from the mouths of Japanese soldiers (both living and dead) in the Pacific theater. So, while I'm not defending the practice, I wouldn't say it is a practice that comes out of the "nazi playbook". It comes out of the playbook of war, which tends to bring out the worst...and the best...of humanity.

True, but I think Star's point was that the Russian soldiers took these from civilians (too).