Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

I would posit that its not a question of backing russian into a corner, its backing putin into a corner.
I think the consequences of giving any concession to russia will ultimately be far worse later then dealing with it now.

[al_infierno]

I would posit that its not a question of backing russian into a corner, its backing putin into a corner.

I disagree.  The kleptomaniacal war machine we are currently fighting a proxy war against is not the work of one bad individual, and removing the head will not change an overall culture that, by all accounts, seems to agree with the nationalistic sentiment of the war if not its execution.

[SirAndrewD]

I disagree.  The kleptomaniacal war machine we are currently fighting a proxy war against is not the work of one bad individual, and removing the head will not change an overall culture that, by all accounts, seems to agree with the nationalistic sentiment of the war if not its execution.

Depends on who takes power, but yeah, that's the problem. 

Patrushev would be just as bad if not possibly worse than Putin. 

Medvedev would be Putin with a salt of incompetence.  He touted Musk's proposal today as a good first step towards the legal destruction of Ukraine as its own independent state and used it to say Musk was acknowledging that Ukraine has no right to exist.  Went on to suggest Musk be given a government post in Russia.

Kadryov, well, we've heard the nightmare stories.  He went up a level today as he now has an official rank, he was made a Colonel-General.  It could be the first step to his replacing Shoigu and he would be worlds worse. 

But on the other hand, what would happen if Russia fell into the hands of the "Oligarchs"?  A true Oligarchy would be far more self interested and concerned with their own survival and profits.  They'd be more willing to make a deal if they could wield real power and not fall out of a window the minute one suggests stopping the war.

All of that said, there's a grain of a good idea in what Musk proposes, but any cease fire and peace deal has to be done with Ukraine in the superior military/bargaining position for it to have any chance for a lasting peace that doesn't encourage Russia to move its ambitions elsewhere.

I would think that a compromised version of Musks proposal could read like this..

- Full withdrawal and de-militarization of Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea.
- Establishment of a UN Peacekeeping Force in those areas
- Acknowledgment that all seized territories are legally Ukrainian
- Russia withdrawing the annexation of all territories and giving up all rights and claims to Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts
- A safe zone in Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea monitored by the UN for a period of years with Russian and Ukraine jointly working to repair infrastructure and resettle displaced persons
- An eventual referendum in Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea acknowledged by the Ukrainian government as legitimate, monitored by the UN to determine independence of those Oblasts along voting lines
- An agreement by Ukraine to not join NATO as a full member in return for a DMZ established at its border.

Now, would any side agree to that?  No, unlikely.  Crimea if left to vote on its own would probably join Russia.  Ukraine has a red line there.  Conversely Donetsk and Luhansk will probably split down geographic lines and the only areas that Russia would likely win would be the areas they controlled during the early days of the Donbas war. 

Would it be a fair agreement? Maybe.  Neither side really gets what it wants.  However Ukraine would be giving the territories the right to decide much the way Canada does regularly with Quebec or the UK with Scotland. 

Long term peace has to be based on the understanding that the Russians and Ukrainians living within the old Ukrainian borders don't want to live with each other, didn't before, and likely will be even less happy with each other after. 

The Donbas war was, although started and pushed by Russia, largely a civil war in Luhansk and Donetsk, hence the extremism and atrocities by both sides.  The Russians that live in the cities and eastern districts aren't going to be as happy when the UAF comes to liberate them as the western districts are now.

Still, all that's just wild educated speculation.  I doubt many cooler heads are going to prevail.

[JasonPratt]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/xwlyl9/another_video_of_the_uaf_during_an_assault/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

A longer-than-usual video of a Uk Humvee assault company skidding along through a wet field to overrun a treeline, somewhere on the southwest corner of the front-advance toward Kherson yesterday.

[Jarhead0331]

Biden: Nuclear 'Armageddon' risk highest since '62 crisis

https://apnews.com/article/biden-nuclear-risk-1d0f1e40cff3a92c662c57f274ce0e25

Just peachy.

[GDS_Starfury]

on the upside, Fallout 76 is free to play for a bit on steam.   :bd:

[Tripoli]

from all of the volumes of stuff Ive read about nuclear policy my take is that you can't give into nuclear blackmail.  once thats done it opens up so many more problems around the globe.
China has nukes, do we let Tiawan get invaded?
North Korea has nukes, do we let them have a go at South Korea?
India/Pakistan, Israel/Iran.... at what point does the world draw a line?

Not only that, but it gives incentive for those who don't have nuclear weapons to get them.  If by having them, other nations give in to you, then suddenly you are punching well above your international affairs weight class. To use your example, if North Korea gets its way because it has nuclear weapons, than South Korea will be foolish not to develop a similar capability right away.  Eventually, this particular game of Jenga will end badly.....

[GDS_Starfury]

oh what irony that LG would make nukes.

[Sir Slash]

With all the Russian soldiers unwilling to fight for Vlad's new empire, I was wondering the viability of Zelensky forming his own version of the, 'Vlasov's Army' used by the Germans in WWII. I bet a considerable number would be willing to cross the line and fight for Mother Ukraine in exchange for eventual citizenship in Ukraine or the West, or maybe for cold, hard cash. They're already trained after all and the Ukes have plenty of their own equipment to give them. If enough come over, they could at least give the Ukes a reserve force to deploy if needed and if they can't be trusted to fight against their former comrades, then use them to guard the border with Belarus or policemen or something. 

I can see reprisals against their families and probably Ukrainians in Russian custody though so maybe it would have a downside to it as well.

[GroggyGrognard]

Biden: Nuclear 'Armageddon' risk highest since '62 crisis

https://apnews.com/article/biden-nuclear-risk-1d0f1e40cff3a92c662c57f274ce0e25

Just peachy.

Actually the doomsday clock in 1962 was at 7 minutes. Today it's at 100 seconds. Happy Friday.

[GroggyGrognard]

With all the Russian soldiers unwilling to fight for Vlad's new empire, I was wondering the viability of Zelensky forming his own version of the, 'Vlasov's Army' used by the Germans in WWII. I bet a considerable number would be willing to cross the line and fight for Mother Ukraine in exchange for eventual citizenship in Ukraine or the West, or maybe for cold, hard cash. They're already trained after all and the Ukes have plenty of their own equipment to give them. If enough come over, they could at least give the Ukes a reserve force to deploy if needed and if they can't be trusted to fight against their former comrades, then use them to guard the border with Belarus or policemen or something. 

I can see reprisals against their families and probably Ukrainians in Russian custody though so maybe it would have a downside to it as well.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1578148355603333120?s=20&t=gljKwEdElZWIEbM0ZKMHvQ

[GroggyGrognard]

That all said, what I find bizarre and a bit concerning about Musk's tweet is how he refers to Crimea belonging to Ukraine as "Krushchev's Mistake."  I mean, who the hell calls it that except Russians?  I'm not saying his proposal is wrong in any way, but that wording causes me to raise an eyebrow.

Same. Elon is repeating Russia propaganda. And especially with this tweet from his "proposal":

Russia is doing partial mobilization. They go to full war mobilization if Crimea is at risk. Death on both sides will be devastating.

Russia has >3 times population of Ukraine, so victory for Ukraine is unlikely in total war. If you care about the people of Ukraine, seek peace.

Literal Russian propaganda that echoes the batshit crazy Russian Z channels.

[GDS_Starfury]

while russia has 3 times the population of Ukraine they cant actually mobilize that many people as a ratio for military service.

[Crossroads]

Depends on who takes power, but yeah, that's the problem. 

Patrushev would be just as bad if not possibly worse than Putin. 

Medvedev would be Putin with a salt of incompetence.  He touted Musk's proposal today as a good first step towards the legal destruction of Ukraine as its own independent state and used it to say Musk was acknowledging that Ukraine has no right to exist.  Went on to suggest Musk be given a government post in Russia.

Kadryov, well, we've heard the nightmare stories.  He went up a level today as he now has an official rank, he was made a Colonel-General.  It could be the first step to his replacing Shoigu and he would be worlds worse. 

But on the other hand, what would happen if Russia fell into the hands of the "Oligarchs"?  A true Oligarchy would be far more self interested and concerned with their own survival and profits.  They'd be more willing to make a deal if they could wield real power and not fall out of a window the minute one suggests stopping the war.

All of that said, there's a grain of a good idea in what Musk proposes, but any cease fire and peace deal has to be done with Ukraine in the superior military/bargaining position for it to have any chance for a lasting peace that doesn't encourage Russia to move its ambitions elsewhere.

I would think that a compromised version of Musks proposal could read like this..

- Full withdrawal and de-militarization of Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea.
- Establishment of a UN Peacekeeping Force in those areas
- Acknowledgment that all seized territories are legally Ukrainian
- Russia withdrawing the annexation of all territories and giving up all rights and claims to Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts
- A safe zone in Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea monitored by the UN for a period of years with Russian and Ukraine jointly working to repair infrastructure and resettle displaced persons
- An eventual referendum in Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea acknowledged by the Ukrainian government as legitimate, monitored by the UN to determine independence of those Oblasts along voting lines
- An agreement by Ukraine to not join NATO as a full member in return for a DMZ established at its border.

Now, would any side agree to that?  No, unlikely.  Crimea if left to vote on its own would probably join Russia.  Ukraine has a red line there.  Conversely Donetsk and Luhansk will probably split down geographic lines and the only areas that Russia would likely win would be the areas they controlled during the early days of the Donbas war. 

Would it be a fair agreement? Maybe.  Neither side really gets what it wants.  However Ukraine would be giving the territories the right to decide much the way Canada does regularly with Quebec or the UK with Scotland. 

Long term peace has to be based on the understanding that the Russians and Ukrainians living within the old Ukrainian borders don't want to live with each other, didn't before, and likely will be even less happy with each other after. 

The Donbas war was, although started and pushed by Russia, largely a civil war in Luhansk and Donetsk, hence the extremism and atrocities by both sides.  The Russians that live in the cities and eastern districts aren't going to be as happy when the UAF comes to liberate them as the western districts are now.

Still, all that's just wild educated speculation.  I doubt many cooler heads are going to prevail.

Musk's taken a lot of flak for his proposal, and deservedly so. As pointed out to him - and to no avail - to begin with all oblasts that are the legitimate Ukraine voted to be part of Ukraine in 1991. I don't know what other votes are needed, and no, regular voting does not provide any justification for that either. When domestic polls take place people vote for domestic issues. If previous government screwed up, do expect the opposition to win the next election.

War in Ukraine is not an ethnic war either, and I do disagree that people within Ukrainian and Russian border areas would have had any beef with each other. I don't agree on the concept of civil war either, evidence points otherwise.

The war in Ukraine is all about Putin's longing for the Russian World, with imperial ambitions. He's meddled in elections way before 2014, used various hybrid weapons to wage economic war, until the land grab of 2014.

See for instance here: https://www.e-ir.info/2020/11/27/russian-military-aggression-or-civil-war-in-ukraine/

Snippet from the article

Russia's 'full spectrum conflict' began following the Orange Revolution and continued through to 2013. Between 2012–2013, Russia launched a massive trade, intelligence, cyber, and informational operation to pressure Ukrainian leaders to drop EU integration. In the decade prior and in 2014, pro-Russian extremists were given paramilitary training, and Russian intelligence infiltrated Ukrainian security forces, especially in Crimea. With a high level of infiltration, it is unsurprising that Russian intelligence was active on the ground in Ukraine between 2013–2014 during the Euromaidan and after Yanukovych fled Kyiv. 

Russian spetsnaz soldiers intervened in mainland Ukraine from occupied Crimea and, with the assistance of Russian nationalists (imperialists) and political tourists trained in Russia and bussed into Ukraine, transformed protestors into armed insurgents. Pro-Russian Chechen proxies were sent by Kadyrov. Russian information warfare was placed on a war footing. Military equipment was supplied throughout 2014, from June of that year, artillery attacks were taking place from Russia into Ukraine, and Russia invaded Ukraine on Ukrainian Independence Day (24 August).

Taken together, these different aspects of Russian 'full spectrum conflict' constituted Russian intervention from the first day of the 2014 crisis. Western scholars should place greater trust in the Ukrainian public, which has never seen evidence of a 'civil war' in Ukraine.

As a personal observation, Russia's invasion of Ukraine follows the century long (if longer) tradition to establishin a small puppet regime somewhere in a neighbouring country, having that ask Russia to assist them against the alleged aggression of this "legitimate" regime, and then Russian military rolling in. A playbook so classic it should be obvious now, as the "people's republics" are nothing but Russian placed puppet organizations.

I do agree however that there is no easy way out of this war.

[Crossroads]

Biden: Nuclear 'Armageddon' risk highest since '62 crisis

https://apnews.com/article/biden-nuclear-risk-1d0f1e40cff3a92c662c57f274ce0e25

Just peachy.

I posted a senior diplomats cooment a few pages back where he observed that there in fact are no "tactical" vs "strategic" nukes as use of any nuclear munition is most certainly an ultimate strategic decision. It is a weapon system that you don't use as such.

It works as a deterrence, as can be seen with no Western country can be seen considering becoming a direct party against Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It also works as a tool for extortion as Putin's used it in the past as well.

At the same time it is an extortion that no country should allow to take place, as consequences would be dire as observed here as well. So how I read President Biden's comment ...

Biden added, "We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis." He suggested the threat from Putin is real "because his military is — you might say — significantly underperforming."

... is that he's basically saying here's back at you, Vova. Any use of a nuclear weapon leads to Armageddon, so don't even consider it.

Putin is very much a sane operator while we do not agree with his logic. His bluff is being called.

What a time to be alive. A major war in Europe with nuclear saber rattling, I long thought only in WW3 wargames.