Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

I clearly remember as I am sure you all do the mid 1990s when there was talk of Russia joining the EU and even NATO. Feels like that was 1000 years ago.

sigh
somewhere up thread I mentioned russian in the EU as the endgame far down the line.
how far, who knows.

[JasonPratt]

Imagine how overpowered Russia would be if they would just clean up their act and treat their people right. But that's been true for, gosh, how many centuries now...

[GDS_Starfury]

they still wouldnt be overpowering, overpowered of whatever.

[GDS_Starfury]

a thread about the bridge strike:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1579511852815781888.html

[SirAndrewD]

Yeah, it's increasingly looking like the bridge bombing may have been a third party.

[JasonPratt]

The Russians released security camera footage of what they claim is the bomb truck, being passed through security with only a quick peek in the back. It's quite a big trailer, but would need to be for that level of explosion.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/xyoybi/russian_media_shows_footage_of_a_truck_allegedly/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

[GDS_Starfury]

its interesting to read the first few pages of this thread.

ffs, Andrew was still married.

[SirAndrewD]

its interesting to read the first few pages of this thread.

ffs, Andrew was still married.

Only because the signed papers were still with the judge.

It was a fun Thanksgiving! 

[al_infierno]

Not to get sentimental, but it's weird to think how many tens of thousands more people were just walking around living their lives with plans for the future and no conception of what laid in store for them.

[JasonPratt]

The indicative estimates by the UAF for Oct 8th aren't necessarily accurate, of course.

Heck, one of them has been partly walked back by today...  ^-^

[GDS_Starfury]

use Oryx for these lists.

[JasonPratt]

I know, I just posted it for their trolling about "1 Kerch Bridge" being added to the list by the UAF.

That, and it indicates that the UAF is taking credit for the destruction.

[JasonPratt]

I had been poking around trying to get an idea why some people think a boat or something was approaching the bridge at the time of detonation. This guy, "Sub Brief", gives a good idea of what that evidence looks like.

His discussion starts a little after 3:00 mark. Something is definitely nosing under the bridge (behind the truck where it has already passed) at the moment of detonation. Whether that was the source of the detonation, I'm still unclear about.

[JasonPratt]

MSN, reporting the Washington Examiner, reporting Reuters and the NY Times and... something something attribution...  ::)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-pour-into-belarus-by-the-trainload/ar-AA12OtwC?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=1f7c881f0b2b43c1b45fafd8dd272169

"This won't be just a thousand troops," Lukashenko told his military high command in a recent meeting, announcing the large-scale arrival of Russian troops. "Be ready to receive these people in the near future and place them where necessary, according to our plan," he said, according to the New York Times.

Cattle-cars of Russian troops arriving in White Russia have been confirmed, along with heavy artillery.

This suggests Putin is hoping to draw off Ukrainian offensive forces by staging a(nother) end-run invasion from Belarus, or at least threaten to do so -- I doubt he has the logistics there, either, but on the other hand that hasn't stopped Russia from doing anti-logistical invasions in the recent past!  :P

Luka, as you might expect by now, markets this as a preparation for Ukrainian and even NATO invasion of Belarus, against which he'll "respond" as necessary: very much the Soviet playbook going back as far as Lenin. Watch for some of those arty pieces to sneak across the border to shoot back into Belarus soon, I guess...?

[Dammit Carl!]

His discussion starts a little after 3:00 mark. Something is definitely nosing under the bridge (behind the truck where it has already passed) at the moment of detonation. Whether that was the source of the detonation, I'm still unclear about.

Didn't some drone-boat (Ukrainian?) wash up on the shore of Crimea a short while back?  Given the craftiness of Ukraine so far, I wouldn't put it past them to arm an aquatic drone device (which is, admittedly, kina cool).