Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Sir Slash]

Or Putin maybe acting to get ahead of Belarus' drifting away from his control. Just a friendly reminder of who wears the pants in the family.

On the issue of Kamikaze Drone Boats, the tech. doesn't surprise me. I'd love to think the Ukes are that smart, or they had good help. But the idea of this kind of weapon getting into the wrong hands scares the pooh outta me.  :o

[JasonPratt]

Yep, it did! It was a cool piece of kit.

[Skoop]

I'm still hearing a lot of chatter that the bridge maybe espionage from inside Russia.

[ArizonaTank]

I'm still hearing a lot of chatter that the bridge maybe espionage from inside Russia.

There was one guy on one of the British news outlets, a British ammo expert, who thought it possible that this was an accident. A Russian explosives shipment gone wrong, albeit in a highly improbable and suspicious place. He wasn't pushing the theory hard, but just put it there as a possibility.

[Gusington]

^Yeah I saw that too. Sounds believable/possible seeing the mess that the Russian military machine really is.

[Tripoli]

His discussion starts a little after 3:00 mark. Something is definitely nosing under the bridge (behind the truck where it has already passed) at the moment of detonation. Whether that was the source of the detonation, I'm still unclear about.

Didn't some drone-boat (Ukrainian?) wash up on the shore of Crimea a short while back?  Given the craftiness of Ukraine so far, I wouldn't put it past them to arm an aquatic drone device (which is, admittedly, kina cool).

This may be what you are thinking of?

http://www.hisutton.com/Ukraines-New-Explosive-USV.html

[Pete Dero]

It looks like the war is almost over thanks to the most brilliant man in the world°     .


Musk spoke with Putin and said that Putin was prepared to negotiate, but only if Crimea remained Russian, if Ukraine accepted a form of permanent neutrality, and Ukraine recognised annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Elon Musk talked to Putin before releasing his proposed peace plan — and promised to meet all of Putin's conditions.


https://twitter.com/maxberger/status/1579863004946239490

° according to Elon Musk

[Dammit Carl!]

His discussion starts a little after 3:00 mark. Something is definitely nosing under the bridge (behind the truck where it has already passed) at the moment of detonation. Whether that was the source of the detonation, I'm still unclear about.

Didn't some drone-boat (Ukrainian?) wash up on the shore of Crimea a short while back?  Given the craftiness of Ukraine so far, I wouldn't put it past them to arm an aquatic drone device (which is, admittedly, kina cool).

This may be what you are thinking of?
http://www.hisutton.com/Ukraines-New-Explosive-USV.html

Yes.  Up the amperage of any TNT onboard, do a simultaneous hit on multiple bents (the vertical bits that are holding up spans (the horizontal bits) on a bridge; long bridge = multiple spans) and get focused hits on where any beams are meeting up at the bents and you've got a compromised structure.  You don't have to collapse the whole thing at once, but knock enough spans out and the bridge is kaput for some time.

[JasonPratt]

That's what washed up, yep!

It does NOT look like the shape that was coming up under the bridge at the moment of detonation, however: that had a blunt nose. But the same tech could conceivably be used for a larger low-profile barge.

Notably, an under-bridge barge detonation would explain a lot of things (though other explanations are certainly possible so far):

0.) What was that thing nosing under the bridge on the camera, and why haven't we heard of it again?

00.) Why did Russian security pass the truck through to begin with? (It was empty -- although there could be a LOT of explanations for this, including Russian sloppiness and/or orders not to look too closely at cargo. ;) Note that the barge theory doesn't keep this also being true! -- just unrelated to the explosion.)

1.) Why was there chatter about the Russians having captured the driver of the truck? (Because his truck didn't detonate and he survived. Then that sounded weird against their truck detonation theory, so they hushed it up again.)

2.) Why drop a few spans instead of taking down the arch and blocking access to the Sea of Azov? (Because a barge couldn't do that.)

3.) Why are a bunch of sparks from the explosion drifting downwind from off to the side of the bridge, especially for several seconds? (Because most of the barge was not yet under the bridge.)

4.) Why does the explosion look off-center from the lane the truck was in, eastward off the bridge? (Because most of the barge was not yet under the bridge when it detonated.)

5.) Why is practically all the damage substantially behind the light-blue/grey radio-shed landmark which the truck had almost reached? (Because the barge detonated behind the truck.)

6.) Why were only some oil tankers on the train damaged by the blast, and substantially eastward of the gray radio-shed landmark? (Because the barge detonated behind the truck.)

7.) Why does the damage pattern look like a shaped charge going in a wedge kind of upward? (Because most of the barge was below the bridge but not quite under it, and the rest of its explosion effect was across the water in other directions, or below the water.)

8.) Why do the three dropped and dislocated bridge segments look like they were lifted up first? (Because the barge detonated partly under them. However, the section immediately detonated didn't fall at first in any case, as the video footage shows.)

[Dammit Carl!]

2.) Why drop a few spans instead of taking down the arch and blocking access to the Sea of Azov? (Because a barge couldn't do that.)

Having seen a few intercoastal bridges (up to a few miles in length at least) who have water traffic pass underneath regularly, the "main channel," span/s are beefier than the spans leading up to them.  Having said that, this bridge is very far from anything that I've ever seen, so time to bow out of any technical talk past this point for me.

p.s. Food for thought:  If Russian construction projects are dealt with as poorly as the military seems to have been (i.e. Sochi Olympics for example), then all bets are off in terms of, well, anything with regards to how sturdily things are built in Russia vs. Western expectations/specifications.  Not saying the bridge engineers are stupid as math is math, but they ain't the ones who built the thing at the end of the day and people can and will fudge as-builts if there are no repercussions and they get paid.  Ergo = bridge get broken easier & earlier than projected design life.

[al_infierno]

It looks like the war is almost over thanks to the most brilliant man in the world°     .


Musk spoke with Putin and said that Putin was prepared to negotiate, but only if Crimea remained Russian, if Ukraine accepted a form of permanent neutrality, and Ukraine recognised annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Elon Musk talked to Putin before releasing his proposed peace plan — and promised to meet all of Putin's conditions.


https://twitter.com/maxberger/status/1579863004946239490

° according to Elon Musk

Putin is prepared to negotiate, but only if Putin gets everything he wants!

But yeah, yikes.  I guess we were right to suspect he was literally repeating Russian propaganda.

[Jarhead0331]

It looks like the war is almost over thanks to the most brilliant man in the world°     .


Musk spoke with Putin and said that Putin was prepared to negotiate, but only if Crimea remained Russian, if Ukraine accepted a form of permanent neutrality, and Ukraine recognised annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Elon Musk talked to Putin before releasing his proposed peace plan — and promised to meet all of Putin's conditions.


https://twitter.com/maxberger/status/1579863004946239490

° according to Elon Musk

Putin is prepared to negotiate, but only if Putin gets everything he wants!

But yeah, yikes.  I guess we were right to suspect he was literally repeating Russian propaganda.

Musk is denying this claim. According to him, he has spoken with Putin only once, it was 18 months ago and the discussion involved space.

[al_infierno]

^ Interesting, I didn't see that.  I guess "Musk did something bad!" makes for better headlines than "Musk denies having done the bad thing we said he did " 

On another note, I quite enjoyed listening to the new Ben Hodges video.

[Old TImer]

It looks like the war is almost over thanks to the most brilliant man in the world°     .


"Musk spoke with Putin and said that Putin was prepared to negotiate, but only if Crimea remained Russian, if Ukraine accepted a form of permanent neutrality, and Ukraine recognised annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Elon Musk talked to Putin before releasing his proposed peace plan — and promised to meet all of Putin's conditions.


https://twitter.com/maxberger/status/1579863004946239490

° according to Elon Musk"

Just more evidence that having a shit ton of money doesn't buy you intelligence.  Musk should just stfu.

[GDS_Starfury]

yesterday:



today: