Russia's War Against Ukraine

[bobarossa]

Is that a big patch job where the fire in first photo was located?  Really well done.

[Jarhead0331]

It looks like the war is almost over thanks to the most brilliant man in the world°     .


"Musk spoke with Putin and said that Putin was prepared to negotiate, but only if Crimea remained Russian, if Ukraine accepted a form of permanent neutrality, and Ukraine recognised annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Elon Musk talked to Putin before releasing his proposed peace plan — and promised to meet all of Putin's conditions.


https://twitter.com/maxberger/status/1579863004946239490

° according to Elon Musk"

Just more evidence that having a shit ton of money doesn't buy you intelligence.  Musk should just stfu.

Once again, Musk has denied this claim.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/11/elon-musk-denies-report-that-he-talked-to-putin-about-ukraine-war.html

Whether true or not, I find it mystifying that so many are so critical of a guy who is proposing a diplomatic solution, for better or for worse, to avoid a possible nuclear war. I'll say it again that I think it is insane that many are outwardly willing to accept nuclear war and global destruction as an outcome preferable to a mediated peace, especially where the world has been led to this brink so blatantly by the military industrial complex and failed, corrupt leadership. 

[GDS_Starfury]

if the West caves in to russia then what happens when the Iranians or N. Koreans try a similar play?

[Jarhead0331]

if the West caves in to russia then what happens when the Iranians or N. Koreans try a similar play?

I'm not suggesting the West should simply "cave" to Russia. I'm suggesting that the West should encourage Ukraine to engage in some form of diplomacy with Russia and be prepared to consider some proposal that might at least make some headway toward deescalation. The West has already proven that it will use pawns to fight proxy wars against its enemies by spending billions to fund, train and arm them. The destruction of the Russian conventional military capability would have otherwise been impossible.

North Korea does not have the nuclear capability to end civilized life on the planet. If the Norks raised a credible threat of using a nuclear weapon, I believe this capability could be destroyed conventionally without much risk. The equation is also much different with China, who has vastly different economic interests and is not led by a potentially irrational dictator. The strategic situations in the examples you raise are very different.

Putting all that aside, I am simply talking about having a discussion of peaceful diplomatic solutions and I'm critical of the notion that just talking about such a thing is worthy of attack. That, in my view, is naive madness in the extreme.

[undercovergeek]

First step into this - just wanted to ask a question

Does the same 'Ukraine must try to step up to the negotiating table' rhetoric apply if we were talking about Texas or New York annexed by someone?

Step up and cede Texas - it's the right thing to do?

[Tripoli]

if the West caves in to russia then what happens when the Iranians or N. Koreans try a similar play?

IMHO, it is China v. Taiwan that is really the war that we may be preventing by the current conflict, but your general point is correct.  There is some circumstantial evidence suggesting that China "green lighted" Russia's invasion.  I believe they did, and that they did so in part to distract the west from their actions in the SCS/Taiwan area, as well as setting (in their mind) a precedent for a war against Taiwan.  The relatively unified western response in support of Ukraine, as well as the shambolic performance of the Russian military and hardware just might be giving them second thoughts.  Now if we would only restocked the gear and munitions we've given Ukraine, as well as increase arms supplies to Taiwan, we just might avoid a war in the Pacific. 

[Jarhead0331]

First step into this - just wanted to ask a question

Does the same 'Ukraine must try to step up to the negotiating table' rhetoric apply if we were talking about Texas or New York annexed by someone?

Step up and cede Texas - it's the right thing to do?

I suppose that would depend on the strategic balance, and a whole bunch of other hypothetical considerations that I'm not going to bother getting into, because I don't think it is really a serious inquiry.

Once again, all of you courageous hardliners are totally missing my point. I've proposed two major concepts that just seem to be entirely ignored.

1. The West, and particularly the United States, has not spent billions on arming Ukraine solely based upon strategic factors. There is a much more sinister drive behind it that bears consideration.
2. I'm, again, for the, i don't know, fourth or fifth time, only suggesting that someone have a discussion about deescalating the war and to seriously consider diplomatic options. I'm not suggesting anyone just cave to Russia's demands. But right now, nobody is even talking and it sounds like if those in support of an ongoing never ending war that is anything short of regime change in Russia, then the only possible outcome is nuclear war and by that point, it will be far too late to say, you know what, Jarhead had a point. Because you'll all be dead.

I will add that spending money on weapons and arms and funding never ending wars is literally the only issue the democrats and republicans agree on. Anytime those two camps agree on something, you should pay careful attention and question it.

[undercovergeek]

First step into this - just wanted to ask a question

Does the same 'Ukraine must try to step up to the negotiating table' rhetoric apply if we were talking about Texas or New York annexed by someone?

Step up and cede Texas - it's the right thing to do?

I suppose that would depend on the strategic balance, and a whole bunch of other hypothetical considerations that I'm not going to bother getting into, because I don't think it is really a serious inquiry.

Wow thanks, I'm not sure what face I need to pull to make it seem like a serious question - it was

It's very easy to say 'do some negotiating' when it's not your country - I only wanted to flip your point of view and see if it was the same if it was your country

[GDS_Starfury]

Now if we would only restocked the gear and munitions we've given Ukraine, as well as increase arms supplies to Taiwan, we just might avoid a war in the Pacific.

to the best of my knowledge a lot of the funding is going to do just that.  its also worth repeating that a lot of the missiles for Himars and the M-270 are types that the Pentagon decided it wont be using again.  stuff like scatterable mine warheads and some other cluster munitions.

I'm critical of the notion that just talking about such a thing is worthy of attack.

talking about peace is all well and good.  the problem is that the Ukraine has stated its goals and has the support of western governments to try achieving them.  the problem with musk is that he's shown a willingness to use his celebrity to add more confusion and controversy to a topic.  while they're two very different subjects, his use of media with his twitter mess is a recent example.

[GDS_Starfury]

I only wanted to flip your point of view and see if it was the same if it was your country

wasn't the Zimmerman telegram pretty much the last straw for the US getting into WW1?

[Jarhead0331]

I'm critical of the notion that just talking about such a thing is worthy of attack.

talking about peace is all well and good.  the problem is that the Ukraine has stated its goals and has the support of western governments to try achieving them.  the problem with musk is that he's shown a willingness to use his celebrity to add more confusion and controversy to a topic.  while they're two very different subjects, his use of media with his twitter mess is a recent example.

I agree generally that "celebrities" and I think Elon Musk qualifies as one in this context, are better off staying uninvolved and to the extent they do try to influence outcomes, it should be done carefully to avoid the confusion of which you speak. However, whether we like it or not, people with such extraordinary wealth have extreme power and influence. Look at Bill Gates, in particular. He is extremely involved in guiding and setting policy. Therefore, these individuals will have a say and while I may disagree with some of the terms of what Musk suggested on twitter, I think the overall idea of working toward a peaceful end to the war should be embraced.   

[GDS_Starfury]

found a video with an old friend of JH's.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1579979648578236416

[Skoop]

I smell blood in Putin's court, I think we're in a good position to keep applying pressure to force collapse without pushing to nuke escalation.  Why should Ukraine concede anything when they have the advantage ? 

Negotiations could be a tactic in a sense.  Ukraine should make the same demands, to look like it's negotiating.  Meanwhile the offensive continues, and more land is liberated.  I still highly doubt putin will use a nuke.

I think I would be more receptive to peace talks if the war was the artillery ground and pound stalemate we saw in July.

[Sir Slash]

I think Putin's MORE likely to use nukes now than a week ago. His reaction to the big bridge getting blown-up was an emotional one, fire missiles at everything Ukrainian in sight cause he looks bad to the whole world. Another huge defeat or a collapse of his military leading to the loss of the Crimea, could push him over the edge. Nukes maybe the only way out of this mess he created in his view of things. That's why while fully supporting the Ukes, the West should in every way be trying to de-escalate this conflict and convince Putin to backtrack his army out of Ukraine while he still has one. 

[Jarhead0331]

found a video with an old friend of JH's.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1579979648578236416

Awwww, yes. Machine gun porn. Excuse me while I go find my Aveeno.