Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Tripoli]

A slightly amusing/off beat note to today's madness.  On twitter there is a video of what may be the world's first first drone v. drone aerial kill:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1580490706560626688

[Gusington]

^OMG...'brave new world'

[JasonPratt]

I vote for Putin's secret identity to be Alois Schickelgruber!  >:D {/deepWW2ref}

[JasonPratt]

1) Interesting proposal, Jason.  One of the biggest hurdles to clear:  The Russians have already conducted a lot of "ethnic/nationalist cleansing" in the occupied regions.  I'm not sure that the pro-Ukrainian folks who fled the Crimea and Donbas would sit well with that.  The unlimited immigration proposal is very interesting, but I think something the Russian leadership would never accept.  I think Putin viewed the Ukrainians as a really powerful cultural threat to Russia, but that's a more complicated topic.

Oh sure, the Uks wouldn't be happy giving up reparations, no doubt. But this is marketing diplomacy: the point is to position themselves in an observably self-sacrificial way on the high road. And after all, it'll be a cold day in hell before Putin or his government pay reparations anyway, so Ukraine wouldn't really be losing anything by agreeing beforehand to give that up in a way which shows off how awesome they are -- or want to be seen as. I'm not discounting the Ukrainian corruption problems, but if Ukraine is going to be in the EU and/or NATO, they need to be seen to be playing along with NATO/EU values, and Lord knows the Ukrainians have been successful at (I think truly) promoting their desire for freedom from oppression. Might as well play to their strengths. Besides, I'm also looking at ways for Ukraine to offer stances that can be negotiated on, if necessary.

And again, as I noted, I doubt Russia would ever accept unlimited mutual immigration, for exactly the reason you said: part of (not all of) the strategic reason for their invasion was to eliminate a viable cultural alternative on their border -- one who wasn't in NATO/EU yet, so who was politically vulnerable to invasion, in the larger world situation.

But offering such a deal should be something their new erstwhile super-allies (NATO/EU) should eat up like pizza! -- as well as interested non-allied parties (like India) and THAT translates to pressure on Russia to accept, perhaps with some modifications of the recovery line-boundaries in the prior breakaway regions. Right now Ukraine, like Russia, is insisting on non-negotiation terms, so to speak: ones their allies wouldn't mind but which also leaves no room for negotiation with Russia for de-escalation purposes. Each side is effectively insisting on what amounts to unconditional surrender of population control, Russia vastly much moreso than Ukraine of course.

Putting it another way, I'm eyeing a victory condition offer which takes away as much of Russia's propaganda jabber-points as possible. (It's Russia, you'll never get rid of all the nonsense.)

[MengJiao]

1) Interesting proposal, Jason.  One of the biggest hurdles to clear:  The Russians have already conducted a lot of "ethnic/nationalist cleansing" in the occupied regions.  I'm not sure that the pro-Ukrainian folks who fled the Crimea and Donbas would sit well with that.  The unlimited immigration proposal is very interesting, but I think something the Russian leadership would never accept.  I think Putin viewed the Ukrainians as a really powerful cultural threat to Russia, but that's a more complicated topic.

Oh sure, the Uks wouldn't be happy giving up reparations, no doubt. But this is marketing diplomacy: the point is to position themselves in an observably self-sacrificial way on the high road. And after all, it'll be a cold day in hell before Putin or his government pay reparations anyway, so Ukraine wouldn't really be losing anything by agreeing beforehand to give that up in a way which shows off how awesome they are -- or want to be seen as. I'm not discounting the Ukrainian corruption problems, but if Ukraine is going to be in the EU and/or NATO, they need to be seen to be playing along with NATO/EU values, and Lord knows the Ukrainians have been successful at (I think truly) promoting their desire for freedom from oppression. Might as well play to their strengths. Besides, I'm also looking at ways for Ukraine to offer stances that can be negotiated on, if necessary.

And again, as I noted, I doubt Russia would ever accept unlimited mutual immigration, for exactly the reason you said: part of (not all of) the strategic reason for their invasion was to eliminate a viable cultural alternative on their border -- one who wasn't in NATO/EU yet, so who was politically vulnerable to invasion, in the larger world situation.

But offering such a deal should be something their new erstwhile super-allies (NATO/EU) should eat up like pizza! -- as well as interested non-allied parties (like India) and THAT translates to pressure on Russia to accept, perhaps with some modifications of the recovery line-boundaries in the prior breakaway regions. Right now Ukraine, like Russia, is insisting on non-negotiation terms, so to speak: ones their allies wouldn't mind but which also leaves no room for negotiation with Russia for de-escalation purposes. Each side is effectively insisting on what amounts to unconditional surrender of population control, Russia vastly much moreso than Ukraine of course.

Putting it another way, I'm eyeing a victory condition offer which takes away as much of Russia's propaganda jabber-points as possible. (It's Russia, you'll never get rid of all the nonsense.)

   I wonder if at this point the surviving Russian elite really cares anymore about messing with murdering the correct parts of the population from Moldovia to Tajikistan.  It's kind of a pre-2010 kind of a  concept.  It might be just too much trouble once the targets get missile defenses and tanks and artillery and so on.
On the other hand, just murdering in a generalized way isn't too hard when you shoot enough missiles and whatnot into population centers -- but still while I'm sure they will keep murdering in order to keep
up appearances -- I wonder if the Russian elite focus hasn't shifted to an area where they can win without too much trouble, GAS.  So they blew up the pipeline in the Baltic and now claim that they blame
the US for that (which is kind of odd, after all the US is pretty sure they didn't do it) BUT they are interested in a GAS deal with Turkeyei.  If the Russian elite can get some kind of ceasefire (maybe with the UN supervisiing a huge neutral zone all around the Black Sea) they can run their GAS to Turkeyei and claim victory since the West will be cut out of the deal with Turkeyei.

From CNN:

Russia and Ukraine exchange blame for damaged residential building in Belgorod
From Uliana Pavlova
Moscow and Kyiv are blaming each other for the damage inflicted on a residential building on Thursday in the Russian city of Belgorod, near the border with Ukraine.

Russian officials blamed the Ukrainian Armed Forces, according to social media posts. However, Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said Russia launched missiles towards Kharkiv and missed its target.

"Around 12:40 p.m. local time, an unidentified object fell on the residential building at 42 Gubkina Street as the result of an air defense operation. Now, destruction on the top floor is visible on the spot, two cars are damaged by debris. At the moment, there is no information about the victims," Belgorod mayor Anton Ivanov said in a video message posted on his Telegram.

Residents were relocated to a hotel, Ivanov added.

Belgorod Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov blamed the Ukrainian Armed Forces for shelling the residential building.

"Ukrainian Armed Forces shelled Belgorod. The air defense at work. There is destruction in a residential apartment building on Gubkin Street. Information about the victims is being specified," the governor said in a Telegram post.

However, Podolyak denied the accusation, saying it was Russia's own mistake.

"Russia launched a missile towards Kharkiv, but something went wrong and it hit a residential building in Belgorod, Russia. Will there be an investigation? Or punishment? No, Putin does not care who to kill: Ukrainians or Russians. Propagandists will quickly find a fake explanation," Ukrainian presidential adviser Podolyak said on Twitter.

[Jarhead0331]

A slightly amusing/off beat note to today's madness.  On twitter there is a video of what may be the world's first first drone v. drone aerial kill:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1580490706560626688

That's interesting. I had heard that DJI, the manufacturer of the Mavic, among other popular commercial and hobbyist drones, had taken certain actions to make sure their drones are not used in war zones, particularly Ukraine and by either side. I don't recall if these were software related measures, or something else. it may just be suspending sales to any of the belligerents.

[GDS_Starfury]

waiting on visual proof but the chatter is that the UAF laid a trap and shot down 5 Ka-52s in a single engagement.   <:-)

[GDS_Starfury]

russian propaganda isnt happy today:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1580623756934152193

:DD

[GDS_Starfury]

[Sir Slash]

"Triple-layer of trenches". So the guys in the first line can hold-off the enemy, the guys in the second line can hold the guys in the first line from running and the guys in the third line.... You get it.

Why not Bernadette Schwartz?  :-X

[Gusington]

That latest tweet puts new meaning into the name 'TWITter'

'clown show'

[GDS_Starfury]

so we get to see how Kursk style defenses work in the 21st century.   <:-)

[Windigo]

Looking at one of the more recent maps of northern Ukraine it hits me how significant the gains have been. The Oskil River is well behind the front line now.

[JasonPratt]

A slightly amusing/off beat note to today's madness.  On twitter there is a video of what may be the world's first first drone v. drone aerial kill:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1580490706560626688

I saw video of the guy getting his first manpad vs missile victory, first one in history apparently; then he did it again later (according to President Z, who congratulated him on it.) Can't recall if we talked about that upthread.

[Dammit Carl!]

A slightly amusing/off beat note to today's madness.  On twitter there is a video of what may be the world's first first drone v. drone aerial kill:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1580490706560626688

I saw video of the guy getting his first manpad vs missile victory, first one in history apparently; then he did it again later (according to President Z, who congratulated him on it.) Can't recall if we talked about that upthread.

Indicative of slower, older missiles being used?  And talk about being in the right place at the right time.