Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

a bit on russian rail problems:

https://www.railway.supply/en/russian-railway-is-on-the-verge-of-collapse/

[Windigo]

I hope this news blackout is indicative of some significant gains by the Ukraine in what ever offensive they have going.
Fingers crossed that the weather still permits the UAF use of secondary roads, which in my opinion are critical in their style of flanking, maneuvering, highly mobile, operations.

I wonder though, when the Soviets start to run out of retreating room, what they are going to do?

[JasonPratt]

Can't find it at the moment, but this is where the gif would go from The Last Starfighter at the climactic defeat of the invaders:

bleeeeeeep -- "We die."

[Dammit Carl!]

I wonder though, when the Soviets start to run out of retreating room, what they are going to do?

Entrench, baby, and fix bayonets!

[JasonPratt]

More seriously, let's see... they might try to spin their stiffening line as a victory? Something like, "We launched our special operation to uncover and expose to the world the viciously overpowered NATO connections being built by Anglo-Saxons in the Ukrainian region, and having achieved this bloody victory we have pulled back to an unbreakable defensive line and halted our defensive pre-emptory counter-attack! Glory to Russia! Behold the Nazi evil! -- the world must join us in resisting this depravity before it's too late!"

And then point continuously at the World Economic Forum's 4th Economic Revolution (or whatever they're calling it, aka "The Great Reset") like Donald Sutherland at the end of the 1970s Invasion of the Body Snatchers, since the WEF has been angling to use Ukraine for its purposes. Which Putin has been opposing because he wants to be the one to take over the world, or at least Europe, or at least Eastern Europe, and he does not share power. ;)

[Windigo]

I wonder though, when the Soviets start to run out of retreating room, what they are going to do?

Entrench, baby, and fix bayonets!

They'll be allowed to starve to death, when they do that, I imagine.

[GDS_Starfury]

seems the soviets are getting ready to abandon the west bank of the Dnipro River which effectively concedes Kherson back to the Ukraine.

[SirAndrewD]

seems the soviets are getting ready to abandon the west bank of the Dnipro River which effectively concedes Kherson back to the Ukraine.

They're definitely preparing to pull back but don't be shocked if they don't put plenty of speedbumps in the UAF's way, and possibly make them bleed for Kherson. 

A couple of western milbloggers this morning were saying there were at least some indications the Russians were fortifying Kherson itself in order to force the UAF to level parts of their own city to take it back. 

[Windigo]

seems the soviets are getting ready to abandon the west bank of the Dnipro River which effectively concedes Kherson back to the Ukraine.

They're definitely preparing to pull back but don't be shocked if they don't put plenty of speedbumps in the UAF's way, and possibly make them bleed for Kherson. 

A couple of western milbloggers this morning were saying there were at least some indications the Russians were fortifying Kherson itself in order to force the UAF to level parts of their own city to take it back.

Lay siege to the city, starve the Russians out - while letting them know they will be the ones clearing all munitions/mines/IEDs from the city post-surrender. Even orcs will know what that means.

[GDS_Starfury]

putin and nukes:

https://www.justsecurity.org/83605/addressing-putins-nuclear-threat-thinking-like-the-cold-war-kgb-officer-that-he-was/

[Dammit Carl!]

seems the soviets are getting ready to abandon the west bank of the Dnipro River which effectively concedes Kherson back to the Ukraine.

They're definitely preparing to pull back but don't be shocked if they don't put plenty of speedbumps in the UAF's way, and possibly make them bleed for Kherson. 

A couple of western milbloggers this morning were saying there were at least some indications the Russians were fortifying Kherson itself in order to force the UAF to level parts of their own city to take it back.

Island hop that bitch - but easier said than done all things considering; do not wish that kind of attrition war on anyone.

[SirAndrewD]

Island hop that bitch - but easier said than done all things considering; do not wish that kind of attrition war on anyone.

Attrition warfare is just what the Russians are aiming for as their next steps. 

They seem to have established at least some kind of coherent plan of defense that will invite the UAF to attack heavily prepared defenses. 

In the north they're now establishing what they're calling the "Wagner Line" that is largely being built by PMC Wagner contractors and contract engineers and will be manned by Wagner troops. 

The line is going to be a heavy fortification behind the Siversk-Donets river, running all across the Luhansk border, anchored by Lysychansk all the way across to Luhansk city. 

This seems to mean that the Russians are about to significantly shorten their lines and possibly abandon Svatove and Starbolisk.  They'll lose two key logistics and rail hubs, but they'll be able to redeploy a large portions of their troops in the north, likely quite a bit of them for refit and rearming using newly mobilized troops. 

They also just repaired the Anatovsky bridge in Kherson with improvised ferries, so they can at least supply forces locally in Kherson itself.  With the bridge up and ferries, they'll probably be able to keep the city in supply as long as they reduce the line and pull back most of the 25k troops north of the Dniper.  That seems to be what they're doing, leaving forces in the city and keeping some bridgehead, while removing thousands of civilians that would just be extra mouths to feed.

With their backs to the river it'll be hard, even when the freeze comes, for the UAF to get across and surround the city.

It's strongly looking like the Russians are going to dig in for the winter and bring more reserves online.  They probably expect that once spring rolls around, they'll have half a million or more men in position for renewed pushes in the quieter parts of the line that haven't seen a lot of action. 

[GDS_Starfury]

Khersons on the west bank so no river for the AFU to cross but it will still be a grind.

[GDS_Starfury]

this is supposedly the concept of the wagner line.
video of some construction:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1579975702853869568

[SirAndrewD]

Khersons on the west bank so no river for the AFU to cross but it will still be a grind.

I was referring to the idea that the UAF could surround Kherson and lay siege.  It'll be hard with the Russians having a fortified perimeter with the river at their backs.  To cut off the Russian line of supply completely they'd have to slog up the riverbank into urban areas. That's if the Russians truly decide to try to hold it.