Russia's War Against Ukraine

[SirAndrewD]

I would say that the main cause of early Russian progress had more to do with their vast superiority in heavy equipment and fair superiority in manpower that they enjoyed early in the war rather than the UAF having learning curves on the new equipment.

One of the things to note is how different Russian offensives were compared to the UAF offensives.  The Russians immediately bogged down with overrun supply chains, and vulnerable salients.  When they switched tactics, they went to slow, plodding slogs advancing very slowly so that they could set up supply hubs and gradually advance.

The Russian way of war, in many cases is that there is no low level initiative and they rely almost entirely on their higher command for all orders and equipment.  If Russian units have orders to advance, they do until they either burn out or get contrary orders.  If they have no orders they'll fulfill their latest and then wait for more.  The lack of effective Junior Officer command is very telling here.  This has caused huge issues with Russian offensive operations both in Ukraine and in past wars.  You see the same endemic problems in Chechnya and even soviet days.

The UAF has been very smart in how it's advanced.  They've targeted supply hubs, they've had reasonable, seemingly clear goals for their attacks, and importantly they know when to slow down and leave the pressure on the front to their Jr. Officers.  Every time they take a major hub, or a get on the better side of a geographical obstacle, they slow, consolidate, let their supply catch up and distribute captured material. 

Their Jr. Officers take regular inititiave on consolidating their lines, launching small pressure attacks, keeping the Russians regularly on their toes without risking too much.  The radio intercepts show this.  Lots of Russians calling home, bunkered down in houses, trenches, buildings, basements, talking about how they haven't heard from an officer in days and the UAF keep pressuring them.  One of the calls I heard today, the Russian said "They fight like animals, even when they're not advancing they don't stop killing us". 

The UAF was also wise with its mobilzation.  They didn't just shove their reservists into the line right away.  After Kyiv was no longer under pressure they took their time to train, equip and slowly feed troops into either border defense or the front line based on their past training and experience.  By June they had mobilized roughly 700k troops.  By now there are estimates they have roughly 1,000,000 with about half that deployed directly in the fighting as of around August.  That's roughly 6 months of training turnaround.  It was enough Zelensky cancelled the annual conscription drive saying simply "We have enough volunteers in training".

So, that leads me to think the UAF can do some reasonable offensive ops in the winter with proper winterized gear.  The real, damaging cold will come in late November to early December, but fortunately long range weather forecasts as of now are calling for an unusually mild winter there.   

The Russians goal should be to hold as much of their lines by Christmas.  The UAF needs to take advantage of the fall to push those lines and keep the Russians from consolidating enough that they can use what I feel might be an advantage for them in the winter months to further pressure and degrade Russian positions and morale.   

[FarAway Sooner]

Makes sense.  The early Russian success was, I think, about the Ukrainians finding their feet (and getting the flood of anti-tank and SAM gear that helped them to offset the initial Russian heavy equipment advantage).  The challenges I'm suggesting with equipment transition didn't come until around the beginning of summer, after the Russians withdrew from near Kyiv. 

The occupation of Lyschansk and the gradual expansion on other fronts did seem to be about Russian artillery superiority and an extraordinary volume of firepower, combined with a methodical, plodding advance.  I just suspect it also happened at a time when the Ukrainians were starting to run low on Russian equipment (artillery shells, as one example) but hadn't yet made a transition to more Western-sourced equipment.  It's a lot easier to lay down a suffocating artillery barrage if you don't have to worry about counter-battery fire...

I've seen the headlines talking about how much captured Russian gear the Ukes have obtained in these last two pushes, and I've got to think that helps.  I'm just wondering how long the supplies of basic Russian ordinance might last for Ukraine?  And how much of the ammunition they fire daily is now coming from the West, versus stocks of Russian supplies that they must be drawing down?

I'm thinking specifically of bullets, artillery shells, and spare parts for fighting vehicles.

[SirAndrewD]

You're correct that the UAF did have shortages of Russian made ammo, and yes it caused issues with their ability to blunt the Russian attacks early in the summer. 

They also had a shortage of actual artillery pieces to provide counterbattery fire and support.  That gap has been closed quite a bit by Western arms and equipment. 

As to what the UAF has now for its Russian era weaponry?  Well, according to them the goals at capturing the major supply hubs like Izium and Lyman were partly objectives to solve that problem.  They obtained a very large amount of captured equipment but most importantly ammo including for their artillery and armored units. 

Now, how long will that last?  Who knows.  As the UAF tries to switch to more NATO equipment that will certainly help things.  There's also quite a few former Warsaw Pact nations that are friendly to them that could provide some help, along with whatever the Ukrainian arms industry can produce for their home grown equipment (they do have some),

A long war could strain their Russian stocks for sure, but the Russians are having similar issues, so it's not an entirely one sided problem. 

There's been more than a few opinions that the war may come down simply to who runs totally out of ammo first.   Neither country really has the industry to keep up with the amount of expenditure that's going on, so I don't know of anyone that's got a definitive answer on that. 

[GDS_Starfury]

this is a good one of future russian intentions and abilities.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1583256094142476288.html

[SirAndrewD]

this is a good one of future russian intentions and abilities.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1583256094142476288.html

Yeah, that jives with pretty much everything I've been hearing/seeing and guessing at. 

It'd be folly to think Surovikin is as incompetent as his disjointed FSB predecessors.  If they execute the plan they seem to be doing, they could be successful with it.

My hope is the appointment of Surovikin isn't a "General Grant Moment" for the Russians. 

[GDS_Starfury]

some dispute over when this was but it was russians.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1582882789447172096

I kept wanting to use my keyboard and take control watching this.

[FarAway Sooner]

You're correct that the UAF did have shortages of Russian made ammo, and yes it caused issues with their ability to blunt the Russian attacks early in the summer. 

They also had a shortage of actual artillery pieces to provide counterbattery fire and support.  That gap has been closed quite a bit by Western arms and equipment. 

As to what the UAF has now for its Russian era weaponry?  Well, according to them the goals at capturing the major supply hubs like Izium and Lyman were partly objectives to solve that problem.  They obtained a very large amount of captured equipment but most importantly ammo including for their artillery and armored units. 

Now, how long will that last?  Who knows.  As the UAF tries to switch to more NATO equipment that will certainly help things.  There's also quite a few former Warsaw Pact nations that are friendly to them that could provide some help, along with whatever the Ukrainian arms industry can produce for their home grown equipment (they do have some),

A long war could strain their Russian stocks for sure, but the Russians are having similar issues, so it's not an entirely one sided problem. 

There's been more than a few opinions that the war may come down simply to who runs totally out of ammo first.   Neither country really has the industry to keep up with the amount of expenditure that's going on, so I don't know of anyone that's got a definitive answer on that.

My understanding was that most of their former Warsaw Pact allies had already given most of their Russian stockpiles, but the details there were always extremely vague.  What might happen to specific supplies in the shorter time frame is much harder to predict.  I have a suspicion that Russia (with back-channel support from the Iranians, Chinese, and perhaps Indians) will have a harder time sustaining the current pace of combat than most of Western Europe will supplying Ukraine. 

In 2020, the US spent 10 times as much on defense as Russia did, while Western Europe together spent 5 times as much on defense as Russia did.  Obviously, only a fraction of this can go towards rearming Ukraine.  But my sense is that the Europeans and the US should be easily able to outspend the Russians over the next 18 months, even if they weren't planning to ramp up defense budgets. 

Over the last 70 years, I haven't really trusted Europe to collectively find its own ass with both hands, so nothing is certain.  But on paper, things sure like better for the Ukes long term.

[Sir Slash]

The Orcs may not be doing well against the Ukes but they're sure as hell killing a lot of those Sunflowers.

[GDS_Starfury]

they'll also be fertilizer for the next season.

[Pete Dero]

https://ukrainetoday.org/2022/10/20/swedish-speed-cameras-stolen-possibly-for-russian-drones/

The Swedish authorities have been finding vandalized speed cameras for months, writes the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet. It is suspected that Russia uses this flash equipment in drones that the country is deploying during the war in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry previously posted a video online of a crashed Russian drone being taken apart. It showed how a Canon camera was attached to the self-built drone with Velcro. The type of camera was similar to that used in Swedish speed cameras.

Russia would use the drones to locate Ukrainian forces.

[JasonPratt]

The ISW was suggesting Wednesday that Putin's administration is setting up a false flag attack involving the Kakhovka Dam, upstream of Kherson. Zelenskyy yesterday reported some more evidence along this line.

The Business Insider article providing context for Zelenskyy's claims yesterday: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/zelenskyy-says-russia-wired-a-hydroelectric-dam-to-explode-and-flood-80-towns-in-region-it-may-have-to-abandon/ar-AA13dcEJ?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=cfbda87ac786457ebe1005b4bbbf53f3#image=AA13dNZg|3

The ISW report on Wednesday (lot of us will have seen this already of course, but I hadn't caught up yet) -- the dam-attack preparation is in the 2nd paragraph: https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-19

The ISW's most recent report last night, dam (and the mining report) in the first paragraph: https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-20

[JasonPratt]

From the Wall Street Journal an hour ago: as the Orcs continue their artillery strikes on civilian targets (and some infrastructure), the Uks have hit the Dnipro river ferry out of Kherson with their own artillery last night: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-strikes-occupied-kherson-as-more-russians-flee/ar-AA13dJJP?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=6a632c5de63e4be3b4a243092e83d5d7

Russia claims four civilians were killed and 13 others injured, but also said the strike hit at 11pm local time -- in other words, after the military curfew when only Russian military and special-permit collaborators are allowed to travel, especially on the ferry.

Russia itself claimed that the civilians killed and injured in the attack were managers and staff of the recently created Tavira television network, including Russians brought in from state propaganda services two weeks ago, who were evacuating the city. Live by the Russian propaganda, die by the etc.! (I wonder if this also helps explain why the TASS nightly propaganda shows have been missing for several days. Aside from even the hosts becoming super-depressed and despondent on air before they were shut down -- were staff and hosts being moved to Kherson?)


Fortunately, back home a Russian TV pundit admitted on a hot mic last night that everyone knows Russia is using Iranian drones. So maybe he'll be available to reinforce Tavira soon...  >:D https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-strikes-occupied-kherson-as-more-russians-flee/ar-AA13dJJP?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=6a632c5de63e4be3b4a243092e83d5d7

[MengJiao]

The Orcs may not be doing well against the Ukes but they're sure as hell killing a lot of those Sunflowers.

  This about sums up my level of comprehension as well.  The whole Iranian drone thing -- why are they bothering to say they aren't providing drones?  And hey, they are more effective than
anything else the Russians seem to have going at the moment.

   AND, the suggestion (by the Ukrainians) that far western Ukraine might be attacked from Belarus is really disturbing, but since it would be a good move (cutting the main supply route into Ukraine)
I would guess the Russians would not really bother -- it makes too much sense! and also might really provoke NATO to undertake a few special operations of their own -- like overrunning Belarus.

[Pete Dero]

The whole Iranian drone thing -- why are they bothering to say they aren't providing drones?

They don't want their good image to be damaged  8).

And hey, they are more effective than anything else the Russians seem to have going at the moment.

I've read that more than 80% are blown out of the sky.

Now Ukraine knows they are being used and they know they need GPS to fly to target, it won't be long before they jam (with foreign aid) the GPS signal rendering those drones useless.
Also the speed of the drone (180 km/h) makes them easy targets.

[JasonPratt]

In Putiviet Russia, martial law loots itself if it's too scared to loot you! https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-soldiers-looting-as-they-flee-zaporizhzhia-kherson-report/ar-AA13b2Ih?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=c6c6fc31f0d847a88addfd9a128e12bf

An orc tradition dating back well over a hundred years now, hm...