Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Jarhead0331]

I think, when your allies are THAT unreliable, there is no good exit strategy. 

I'm not making excuses for the botched withdrawal--there were a zillion things wrong with it.  I'm just not sure this was one of them.  Rather, this was an almost inevitable outcome of having made material investments into unreliable allies, who had a profoundly different agenda than we did, from the very start of the war. 

Would it have been practical to, before we left, insist on taking back all of the equipment we "gave" to the Afghan forces?  How would that have worked?

Besides, we already had a precedent set for leaving lots of US-made weapons with the mujahedin after they kicked the Russians out in the 80s.  Look at how well that worked out for us!      :pullhair:

I cannot for the life of me believe that there are any apologists who try in any way to rationalize or put any kind of a positive spin on the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. From any reasonable perspective, it was an unmitigated disaster. Just about any other approach or outcome would have been preferable.

80 U.S. aircraft
42,000 pieces of night vision, surveillance, biometric, and positioning equipment
22,174 Humvee vehicles
nearly 1,000 armored vehicles
64,363 machine guns
42,000 pick-up trucks and SUVs
358,530 assault rifles
126,295 pistols
nearly 200 artillery units
$48 million worth of ammunition



https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2021/09/how-equipment-left-afghanistan-will-expose-us-secrets/185264/

But yeah, only $7 to $10 billion in US tax dollars left to the enemy. Yes, the enemy. The Afghan National Army collapsed before the last US forces even pulled out.

Utterly, totally, entirely incompetent. Period. A perfect, textbook example of how NOT to abandon a a country after you've fought a war there for over 2 decades. 

[al_infierno]

Not to get too off topic (this is tangentially, thematically related to Russia), but I understand that corruption in the Afghan army was a non-trivial factor in the downfall of our allied government there.  Apparently there were a ton of Sopranos-style "no show" jobs going around in the armed forces, where people were getting paid but not showing up to wear the uniform.

Back on topic, I really wonder how many of Russia's "reserves" or "home guard" are similar no-show jobs that are only strength on paper.

[JasonPratt]

Could the Russians be so incompetent

thats a silly question to ask at this point.

"The Russians be" with a snorfing sigh trailing off at the end, would also work well as an alternate subject title to this thread.

[FarAway Sooner]

Not to get too off topic (this is tangentially, thematically related to Russia), but I understand that corruption in the Afghan army was a non-trivial factor in the downfall of our allied government there.  Apparently there were a ton of Sopranos-style "no show" jobs going around in the armed forces, where people were getting paid but not showing up to wear the uniform.

Back on topic, I really wonder how many of Russia's "reserves" or "home guard" are similar no-show jobs that are only strength on paper.

My understanding is that this was a primary way that the Russian officers padded their purses.  They reported soldiers serving in their units--and pocketed those soldiers' paychecks--when they had already accepted bribes to let them go home.  This was part of the grease that lubricated the Russian military kleptocracy for decades.

JH, I agree that the withdrawal was utterly despicable and incompetent in all sorts of ways.  I'm not making excuses for how badly it was handled.  I just suspect that a lot of that equipment had been "lost" by Afghan forces long before we decided to pull out.  This kind of theft was part of the grease that lubricated the Afghan military kleptocracy since 2002. 

My guess is that the Afghan Army was 2x to 3x as corrupt as the Russian Army, but I really have no idea how to measure that.

[Sir Slash]

Exactly the reason for a more orderly and organized withdrawal, so much equipment left unaccounted for all of which would be left for the Taliban to use against the Afghan people or us. It really smacks of criminal incompetence.

[JasonPratt]

Welp, if Sobchak is on the run...!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-s-goddaughter-flees-russia-hours-before-agents-swoop-to-arrest-her/ar-AA13otHn?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=6363b79846674708a388e21de1051a61

Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin political analyst, argued that the raid has sent a signal to members of the Russian elite that all bets are off. "If they can arrest the daughter of Putin's patron... it means there are no untouchables," Mr Markov wrote in a commentary. "For some members of the elites, an arrest warrant for Sobchak is a blazing sign in the skies."

[JasonPratt]

Even Putin and his administration must admit the logistical catastrophe of his 'partial' mobilization now:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-admits-it-s-running-out-of-equipment-for-mobilized-soldiers/ar-AA13qVWi?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=6363b79846674708a388e21de1051a61

Peskov said a newly-formed council created by Putin is working on resolving problems with equipment. "Vigorous measures taken to rectify the situation are already yielding the first positive results," he said.

More about Peskov and his newly formed council here at Newsweek: https://www.newsweek.com/putin-chief-exorcist-kremlin-desatanization-ukraine-security-council-1754912

...oh, wait, sorry! That was the special newly formed exorcism council...  >:D (Clarification: the council consists only of Putin himself as the chief exorcist appointed by the RussOrx Patriarch.)

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-special-council-military-meeting-supply-woes-ukraine-1754490

I am forced to assume that "the first positive results" translates to "our Mosins from the late 1800s fire 50% more often now on average before exploding".  :bd:

(See the Reuters article above for an aside about nineteenth-century Mosin rifles being distributed in bad shape to troops.)

[Gusington]

^I don't doubt that there is some kind of Russian Exorcism Council. That would make a great book. And movie. HBO series?

[JasonPratt]

There probably is an actual exorcism council of Russian Orthodoxy. But I was slightly wrong about my expectations, by not being cynical enough: Putin was declared to be the chief exorcist.

I'm generally fine with exorcisms in principle (in evangelical denominations like the Baptists we call it deliverance ministries), and I don't even disagree in principle with the things Putin is mouthing about the totalitarian reduction and elimination of freedom being satanic (and even Satanic, capital S ;) ). But I think it's obvious from his own descriptive testimony that the chief Satanic purveyor of Satanism in his immediate vicinity is Putin himself and his regime: logically he's testifying against himself! -- while being made the chief exorcist of Satanism in Russia.

Which also seems pretty typical of the loopiness of Russian life and culture for the past however-many-decades-or-centuries now.

[Gusington]

^whoa

[SirAndrewD]

Even more of Putin using the Orthodox church as theater to support his agenda. 

He is, of course, chief exorcist because he's returning to and enforcing Caseropapism as a central tenant of the Russian Orthodoxy.  Caesar is the head of the church, he is Caesar (Tsar) and the church enforces his divine will.  So if there are any exorcists, he is of course chief exorcist. 

I was more concerned with the fact that recently the Patriarch prepared the Russian people for "Years" of war with Ukraine when he endorsed the mobilization.

[Gusington]

Caesaropapism can't be a word, you've had to made that up...

...and the last part of your above post makes me...jittery.

[SirAndrewD]

Caesaropapism can't be a word, you've had to made that up...

...and the last part of your above post makes me...jittery.

https://www.britannica.com/topic/caesaropapism

It was one of the central points of the Great Schism and has defined Russia's relationship with the Eastern Church since the Byzantine Empire fell and they redefined themselves as the "Third Rome".

[JasonPratt]

^ Yep!

And all words are made up. 

[JasonPratt]

I should perhaps clarify that despite being a Protestant I'm friendly with pretty much any trinitarian congregation, especially ancient ones, and I'd rather us all work together on what we agree on. I read and benefit from Eastern Orthodox works, and even Russian Orthodox works, on a relatively regular basis. (e.g. I tend to agree that Sergius Bulgakov is the greatest EOx systematic theologian of the 20th century.)

Which just makes me more disgusted and zorchy about the hijacking of Russian Orthodoxy in this instance (as well as prior ones).  >:(

(Also the Protestant side of me quietly snorts here that Caesaropapism is one of those details we tend to Protest against. ;) )