Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

in other Black Sea naval news.  in response to the Ukraine drone attack russia has withdrawn from the grain transport agreement.
this however isnt stopping those ships from sailing.



https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:32.3/centery:44.1/zoom:7

will be very interesting to see how this works out.

[Crossroads]

A rather interesting view on how Russia tries to develop their front lines toward the winter. In the north hold on, in center try to force Ukrainians out of the cities into open fields, and in the south retreat to eastern banks of Dnipro while trying to hold Kherson City itself.

Original: https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/1587410122011283458

Threadreader + translate


url fixed

[MengJiao]

in other Black Sea naval news.  in response to the Ukraine drone attack russia has withdrawn from the grain transport agreement.
this however isnt stopping those ships from sailing.

  And more oddly even, CNN says the Russians told the Turks that they wouldn't consider reopening the grain deal (which means what?  not shooting at neutral ships?) until
the drone attack on Sevastapol was "investigated" (what on earth does that mean?  Does somebody have to explain that during wars one has enemies that try to blow up
your stuff?) meanwhile so far the ships are sailing loaded with grain.

[Gusington]

Anyone know what kind of protection the Ukrainian grain ships are getting?

[nelmsm]

Anyone know what kind of protection the Ukrainian grain ships are getting?

Well this is where I wouldn't be surprised if NATO stepped in saying that the need to prevent worldwide famine it was needed.  Especially since naval commanders are probably feeling a bit emboldened seeing Russian naval performance so far.

[MengJiao]

Anyone know what kind of protection the Ukrainian grain ships are getting?

  In theory, neutrality should work as some kind of protection -- but at sea, since there are no sovereign areas, the shooters of stray missiles have the excuse that they were not
properly informed of the shipping in the area.

  On the other hand, naval powers could say there is some sort of no-shooting zone -- though presumably the Russians would say they don't recognize it.  This sort of missiles going everywhere
happened a lot in the "Tanker War" in the Persian Gulf back during the Iran-Iraq war.

But:

No vessels will move along Black Sea grain corridor on Wednesday
From CNN's Jomana Karadsheh and Jorge Engels
Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations have agreed to not plan for any ship movements in the Black Sea grain corridor on Wednesday, according to a statement from the UN Secretariat at the Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) in Istanbul on Tuesday.

UN and Turkish teams on Tuesday carried out 36 inspections aboard outbound vessels, according to the statement. They attempted to inspect another two ships, but the process was cut short because of "issues related to fumigated cargo," the statement said. The inspection reports would be shared with Ukrainian and Russian delegation, it added.

"The UN Secretariat reiterates that movements and inspections carried out after the Russian Federation suspended its participation in implementation activities at the Joint Coordination Centre is a temporary and extraordinary measure," according to the statement.

The JCC said earlier today that three ships had left Ukrainian ports Tuesday, despite Russia's decision to suspend its participation in the arrangement on Saturday.

[Gusington]

A whole new dimension to the war.

[Gusington]

Meanwhile, in the Middle East [from Politico]:

IMMINENT IRANIAN ATTACK ON SAUDI: Officials in Washington and Riyadh are warning of an imminent Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia, the Wall Street Journal's DION NISSENBAUM reports .

Troops in the region, including American ones, are now on high alert.

"Saudi officials said Iran is poised to carry out attacks on both the kingdom and Erbil, Iraq, in an effort to distract attention from domestic protests that have roiled the country since September," per Nissenbaum.

"We are concerned about the threat picture, and we remain in constant contact through military and intelligence channels with the Saudis," a National Security Council spokesperson told WSJ. "We will not hesitate to act in the defense of our interests and partners in the region."

[ArizonaTank]

Meanwhile, in the Middle East [from Politico]:

IMMINENT IRANIAN ATTACK ON SAUDI: Officials in Washington and Riyadh are warning of an imminent Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia, the Wall Street Journal's DION NISSENBAUM reports .

Troops in the region, including American ones, are now on high alert.

"Saudi officials said Iran is poised to carry out attacks on both the kingdom and Erbil, Iraq, in an effort to distract attention from domestic protests that have roiled the country since September," per Nissenbaum.

"We are concerned about the threat picture, and we remain in constant contact through military and intelligence channels with the Saudis," a National Security Council spokesperson told WSJ. "We will not hesitate to act in the defense of our interests and partners in the region."

hmmm.... Price of oil had been dropping. Putin getting his new friends to juice the price of oil?

[bobarossa]

Regarding the grain convoys, is there any reason they cannot proceed through Romanian and Bulgarian territorial waters (with their permission of course)?  Are those countries afraid of antagonizing Russia?  I realize there are a number of miles the convoys would have to go to get to these waters from their Ukrainian ports.

[GDS_Starfury]

[Pete Dero]

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1587325946985684993



Satellite images shared by British intelligence show what are likely two MiG-31K FOXHOUND interceptor jets stationed at Belarus' Machulishchi Airfield on Oct. 17, according to the U.K. Ministry of Defense. Located near the jets is a large canister, which the Ministry of Defense assesses is likely for the AS-24 KILLJOY air-launched ballistic missile.

The KILLJOY missiles are launched from a high-speed aircraft to go after their targets. Russia claims that the missiles, also known as Kinzhal or "dagger" missiles, can carry conventional or nuclear warheads and are hypersonic, since they are reported to travel at over five times the speed of sound.

Ukraine's current air defenses can't detect and destroy them, according to Hromadske, which could raise alarm about whether Russia intends to use Belarus as a staging ground for an assault on Ukraine, in a repeat of a tactic Russia used early in the war. Russian President Vladimir Putin has leaned on Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko since the early days of the invasion this year to prepare for attacks on Ukraine, including the failed offensive on Kyiv.

But Russia might be conducting the deployment to send a signal to the West and pull Belarus further into the war, rather than preparing an actual plot to unleash an attack on Ukraine, according to British intelligence.

[Crossroads]

Oh my but the Russian casualty figures have been sky high the past few days. Is there a Russian counter going on somewhere where they get blasted to smithereens or what's going on.

I mean, even considering there might be some "extra" on these figures, the trend continues.

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1587710515136151552

[MengJiao]

  I think Zelinsky mentioned a couple of days ago that there was a big Russian attack that got seriously messed up.

And the Russians are back onboard with the grain deal (so what was that about?  Was there really an attack on Sevastapol at all?)

CNN:
—
Russia said Wednesday it was rejoining the agreement that guarantees safe passage for ships carrying vital grain exports from Ukraine, a move that may help ease concerns about global food supplies that were raised when Moscow suspended its participation in the pact last week.

The decision to reverse course and rejoin the agreement was announced by the Russian Ministry of Defense just days after Moscow cited drone attacks on the city of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea as the reason for its withdrawal from the deal.

"The Russian Federation considers that the guarantees received at the moment seem sufficient and resumes the implementation of the agreement," the ministry said in a statement posted on its official Telegram channel.

Russia has blamed Ukraine for the Sevastopol attacks. Ukraine has not confirmed that its forces attacked the city, and the extent of the damage to Russian naval vessels remains unclear.

[Tripoli]

  I think Zelinsky mentioned a couple of days ago that there was a big Russian attack that got seriously messed up.

And the Russians are back onboard with the grain deal (so what was that about?  Was there really an attack on Sevastapol at all?)

CNN:
—
Russia said Wednesday it was rejoining the agreement that guarantees safe passage for ships carrying vital grain exports from Ukraine, a move that may help ease concerns about global food supplies that were raised when Moscow suspended its participation in the pact last week.

The decision to reverse course and rejoin the agreement was announced by the Russian Ministry of Defense just days after Moscow cited drone attacks on the city of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea as the reason for its withdrawal from the deal.

"The Russian Federation considers that the guarantees received at the moment seem sufficient and resumes the implementation of the agreement," the ministry said in a statement posted on its official Telegram channel.

Russia has blamed Ukraine for the Sevastopol attacks. Ukraine has not confirmed that its forces attacked the city, and the extent of the damage to Russian naval vessels remains unclear.

IRT Russia being back onboard with the grain deal:  My $0.02 on the issue is that Russia realizes that right now it can effectively interfere with the grain convoys, at least not at an unacceptable cost in terms of aircraft and ships.  While Russia could use submarines, that would risk NATO ASW assets being deployed to the AOR.  Also, a sub vs. neutral-flagged merchant ship engagement does not look good from an international political POV.  Given that Russia is unwilling to sink the merchant ships, it might as well take credit for allowing them to continue unmolested to feed the starving in Africa and the Middle East.