Leaked Memo - War with China by 2025

Started by Jarhead0331, January 31, 2023, 02:55:16 PM

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Skoop

Any one used the csis topics to make some CMO scenarios ?  Might be really interesting for a play through, I suppose you could find something similar in the workshop.

GDS_Starfury

one question I have about that wargame.
did the chinese team use chinese tactics and strategy or did they adopt more western ideas.
Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


Tripoli

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 03, 2023, 06:26:28 PMone question I have about that wargame.
did the chinese team use chinese tactics and strategy or did they adopt more western ideas.


THe wargame used 3.5 day turns, so it didn't address tactics, as much as operational/strategic PRC/PLA operations.  The game was on the unclassified level.  However, there is a lot of information on PLA doctrine that is open source (albeit, you have to read Chinese).  However, given the number of iterations they ran, and the various changing conditions, I think they got a pretty good read on the general outlines of the war. See https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?VersionId=WdEUwJYWIySMPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ at pg. 44
"Do I not destroy my enemies when I make them my friends?" -Abraham Lincoln

GDS_Starfury

Page 73, The First Battle of the Next War Operational and Tactical Assumptions: Competence, Weapons, and Infrastructure, leaves me with a LOT of questions.
Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


Tripoli

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 03, 2023, 07:20:36 PMPage 73, The First Battle of the Next War Operational and Tactical Assumptions: Competence, Weapons, and Infrastructure, leaves me with a LOT of questions.

Yes, amphibious operations are notoriously difficult, and the PLAN has almost zero experience in them under combat conditions, and (IMHO) not enough under training conditions.  It could turn into a real $hit show for them.  Further, Taiwan is very defense-friendly terrain once you get ashore, which is part of the reason the US went with a Iwo Jima/Ryukyu campaign instead of Taiwan in WWII.  With that said, it is wise to plan as if the PLAN could pull it off (albeit at a cost I'm not sure they have seriously begun to grasp).  ANd despite some defensive advantages, Taiwan does not have the best trained/best equipped force in the world.  Also, there are other options, such as blockade that could move the needle in the PRCs direction.
"Do I not destroy my enemies when I make them my friends?" -Abraham Lincoln

JasonPratt

QuoteWith that said, it is wise to plan as if the PLAN could pull it off

Your pun. I saw it.  :ThumbsUp:
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

FarAway Sooner

Taiwan is a tactically difficult target, and one picked more for political reasons than military ones.  Deterring Chinese aggression against Taiwan is important as a first step for building unity in the region, but I'm assuming that, if the Chinese start looking to expand militarily, there are smaller central Asian countries that would prove much easier to invade.  Like any of us are even discussing the Chinese annexation and cultural annihilation of Tibet today?

I'll admit, I know next to nothing about that part of the world aside from the country names.

Gusington

The Chinese have already started expanding militarily by constructing their own islands and bases upon them throughout the Pacific.


слава Україна!

We can't live under the threat of a c*nt because he's threatening nuclear Armageddon.

-JudgeDredd

Sir Slash

Yeah, why invade a country when you can just build a bigger one next door? Makes sense to me.
"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.

JasonPratt

Quote from: Sir Slash on February 04, 2023, 10:35:32 PMYeah, why invade a country when you can just build a bigger one next door? Makes sense to me.

Why not both?! The advantage to Taiwan is that it has population and an industrial base which China needs. (Also, hookers.)

Quote from: Gusington on February 04, 2023, 02:33:22 PMThe Chinese have already started expanding militarily by constructing their own islands and bases upon them throughout the Pacific.

And claiming territorial water off the coast of Chile, which under the CCP necessarily implies military jurisdiction (to protect their fishing rights or whatever.)
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

Gusington



слава Україна!

We can't live under the threat of a c*nt because he's threatening nuclear Armageddon.

-JudgeDredd

Sir Slash

How much are these Hookers? Asking for a friend.
"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.

Gusington



слава Україна!

We can't live under the threat of a c*nt because he's threatening nuclear Armageddon.

-JudgeDredd

MengJiao

Quote from: Skoop on February 03, 2023, 05:43:06 PMAny one used the csis topics to make some CMO scenarios ?  Might be really interesting for a play through, I suppose you could find something similar in the workshop.

  There are balloons (aerostats?) in CMO...so there you go.

JasonPratt

Forwarding an Epoch Times article from this morning, filling out some context to that memo leak:

QuoteSeveral former military officials said that the United States could face significant shortfalls if there is ever a conflict with the Chinese regime over Taiwan, coming as U.S. military jets shot down a Chinese spy balloon that drifted across the United States.

"Unfortunately, talking broadly and in overall terms, the Chinese have dramatically increased their air, sea, space, cyber, and missile capabilities in the last couple of decades," James Anderson, acting undersecretary of defense for policy under President Donald Trump, told Fox News.

"In some of the scenarios that could happen, we might well be at a competitive disadvantage initially because they have home-field advantage in terms of their capacity to quickly mobilize local forces," he said, "and that's really important to the [Chinese military]."

Last week, Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), the new chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the House of Representatives, said the odds of conflict with China over Taiwan "are very high" after a U.S. general released a memo about a potential conflict with the regime in 2025.

Gen.  Mike Minihan, who heads the Air Mobility Command, wrote to the leadership of its roughly 110,000 members, saying, "My gut tells me we will fight in 2025."

"I hope he is wrong ... I think he is right, though," McCaul said in an interview last week.

Although the general's views do not represent the Pentagon, it shows concern at the highest levels of the U.S. military over a possible attempt by China to exert control over Taiwan, which Beijing claims as a wayward province. "We're preparing for it and we should," Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), a member of the Senate leadership, told news outlets last week in response to a question about a possible U.S.-China conflict. "There are four countries around the world that we watch very carefully in terms of our own security. China is number one."

But those fears were exacerbated after a Chinese spy balloon floated over much of the United States over the past several days before it was shot down off the South Carolina coast by a U.S. F-22 fighter jet. The balloon's presence over the United States, first detected in Montana, prompted Secretary of State Antony Blinken to announce that he's canceling his scheduled trip to China this year.

Meanwhile, the United States hasn't been involved in such a conflict in decades since World War II, it has been noted. A possible conflict would require a large number of warships and aircraft carriers to exert control over the Pacific Ocean.

"The United States hasn't been in such a conflict since 1945 and the casualties would come in a very short period of time. The war game covered three or four weeks," Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told WJAR-TV last week. Such a conflict "really requires a cultural change in the U.S. military," he said.

One issue, Cancian noted, is U.S. industrial production has slipped in recent decades. A large number of U.S.- and Western-based countries have outsourced manufacturing to China and other countries in recent years, according to economists, namely after China entered the World Trade Organization in 2001.

"It certainly is a realistic concern," he told the outlet. "Our inventories are not large and our ability to replace them, the surge capability of our defense industry is not great so that in a long conflict we will risk running out of key munitions and weapons."

Heino Klinck, a senior adviser to the National Bureau of Asian Research, told Fox News on Sunday that it's difficult to predict what could happen.

"There are areas in which they have dominance, and there are also areas in which we have dominance, so it's not exactly an apples and oranges type of comparison," Klinck, who previously served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia before leaving in 2021, told the outlet. "China certainly has geographic advantages just based on the fact that it's only 100 miles from Taiwan, so that's something that requires advanced logistical planning," he added.

Anderson noted that China hasn't conducted a significant military operation in decades. Beijing last fought a conflict with Vietnam in 1979 along the two countries' borders, while the United States has partaken in many conflicts since the end of World War II.

"The fact is they have no experience conducting a major amphibious assault on the scale that would be required to take the island of Taiwan," Anderson told Fox. "Yes, they did attack various outlying islands of Taiwan during multiple crises in the 1950s, but those were very small-scale operations."

He added: "There are no good parallels, and ... from our perspective, the fact that the Chinese don't have a good parallel is good news because this is a competitive disadvantage for them."
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!