Israel

[GDS_Starfury]

24 Merk's are going to fuck something up.

[MOS:96B2P]

The clear culprit here is Iran and the obvious reason is to abort the promising developments recently of a possible Peace Deal between Israel and the Saudis'. Sept. 20, the Crown Prince was on FOX News and when asked by Bret Bair about peace between the two countries said, "We're getting closer and closer every day". Two days later, Netanyahu said he was delighted by the Prince's statement and agreed peace between the two were very close. This had to give people in Tehran a major case of Acid Reflux. Thus the attack now to unhinge all that. Iran's been bankrolling Hamas and Hezbollah for many years now, no way they can't be involved.

Gaza's not worth the life of the number of Israeli soldiers it would take to clean it out. I'm good with nuking the place and calling it a day. It's time to get, 'Old Testament' on these assholes.

Heads should definitely roll at the IDF and Mossad. How could they be so unprepared on the anniversary of Yom Kippur? The thing that really shocks me is I was there back in 2009 and everywhere we went there were armed soldiers and Israeli civilians armed to the teeth. How could a bunch of fanatics in black pajamas roll-up in pickup trucks and NOT get their asses shot off? Things in Israel must've changed a whole lot since I was there.

I understand there was a demonstration in Times Square today in support of Hamas.    Going forward there will be more of this and major political figures will join-in to condemn Israel for, 'provoking' this attack. 

Yes, that was a very interesting series of interviews by Bret Baier. I do expect the Israelis will attempt to re-occupy the Gaza-Strip. This will probably take months and the Israelis will be labeled the bad guys. They have declared war and will do what needs to be done.

I wonder if Hezbollah will be ordered by Iran to open a northern front against Israel.  I also wonder if Israel will go after Iran in an overt way at some point. Maybe hit the facilities being used to develop a nuke?     

I was surprised to see many of the terrible, sickening videos of the Hamas attacks where Israelis did not have weapons. I remember news footage from back in the day when it was normal to see Israelis in civilian clothes walking around and standing at bus stops with Uzis etc. It seemed as if every third or fourth Israeli was armed. The footage would also show groups of uniformed soldiers with weapons standing on corners etc. 

In many of the videos this week there are Israelis in civilian clothes running, hiding, etc. but no weapons. Very few of them in the air raid shelters/safe rooms seem to have weapons. Then Hamas would come and try to force their way in and if they couldn't get in the safe room burn the building. There were a few videos where the soldiers didn't even have weapons. In at least one video there was a group of soldiers hiding in the barracks latrine with no weapons. Maybe the weapons were safely locked in the armory while they were off duty and the guy with the key was already shot? Just crazy sickening to watch. I bet/hope they are sleeping with Uzis and or Glocks on the nightstand and assault rifles under the bed tonight.     

[GDS_Starfury]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1711265088982720938

[MikeGER]

...the moment friendly soldiers use your car as cover and concealment... while you still in the car    (second video)
and the crackles of incomming are audible at about 0:20-022, and 0:41


https://twitter.com/i/status/1710943017891148285


we had to witness kind of an Israelian Pearl Harbor on Saturday morn

[MikeGER]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1710662404466733262

problem is not only the Hamas itself , take a look at the bystanders in Gaza
the people who support them   

 this is (or was) German Shani Louk attending the music festval

https://twitter.com/i/status/1711255021088878863

[Uberhaus]

There's been a lot of comparisons to Yom Kippur war of 1973 and how the Israeli intelligence failed there. Some Tet Offensive vibes as well in how they managed to penetrate and attack deep into civilian areas without those numbers having been noticed.

I think this is something different from the Yom Kippur intelligence failures where the Israeli military and political leadership had advance warning of a pending attack and failed to act, believing themselves invincible.  https://www.brookings.edu/articles/enigma-the-anatomy-of-israels-intelligence-failure-almost-45-years-ago/

Exactly what the king [Hussein of Jordan]told Golda is still controversial. The earliest accounts of the meeting in Israeli newspapers—in 1993, 20 years after the meeting—claimed the king brought an explicit warning that Syria and Egypt were about to attack Israel, a warning that the prime minister failed to heed, leading to the surprise attack on Israel on October 6, 1973. The former head of the DMI, General Eli Zeira, claimed in 1993 when the story broke about the king's trip that the prime minister had received a warning of war from "a very senior Arab personality," which the papers identified as King Hussein.

The military ended up being scapegoated.  https://jstribune.com/oren-a-revisionist-view-of-the-intelligence-failure-of-the-yom-kippur-war/

I suspect this recent failure is due to Hamas, who are barbaric, using a complete electronics blackout on the operation while broadcasting "routine" traffic.  Perhaps Israel had human intelligence but could not support it with collection of electronic transmission of planning, operational orders, logistic reports, etc. 

The conduct of Hamas is evil and Israel has every right to defend itself. 

[GDS_Starfury]

[Uberhaus]

Well Star, we may come to see how closely Iran and Russia are cooperating.  My private, personal belief is that the continuing assault on democracy is an attempt to bankrupt or at least make dysfunctional the West, especially the US. This obviously being patterned on the collapse of the Soviet Union. 

[steve58]

Unfortunately Israel's strict gun control laws contributed to this weekends invasion and slaughter.  Their citizens were mostly unarmed.  Crazy considering the neighbors they have.   Even more crazy that they are just "loosening" the laws.

https://thereload.com/israeli-loosens-gun-carry-rules-after-unprecedented-terror-attack/

[MikeGER]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1711083530187346284

no Russian troll farm so, these are right under your nose on your streets 

They cheer as the speaker mentions the hang-gliding terrorists who attacked a music festival & cheer even more about the 5000 Hamas rockets

where is a Bear Jew when you neeed him 

[GDS_Starfury]

its all of it Mike.

[MOS:96B2P]

Unfortunately Israel's strict gun control laws contributed to this weekends invasion and slaughter.  Their citizens were mostly unarmed.  Crazy considering the neighbors they have.   Even more crazy that they are just "loosening" the laws.

https://thereload.com/israeli-loosens-gun-carry-rules-after-unprecedented-terror-attack/

Wow.  I was wondering, while I watched all those horrific videos, why the Israeli citizens seldom seemed to have guns.  I was under the false belief that most Israeli households had guns. Instead they were pulled out of their own beds, in their own homes, often herded into one room with their children, abused and killed or kidnapped. Sickening, shit.

After this war is over, when the Israelis are doing the AAR / investigations on said war this gun issue should maybe be discussed.       

[Crossroads]

https://twitter.com/LauraHuu/status/1711392260636483624

[JasonPratt]

Note to check in with the ISW...

An intelligence analysis I saw on Fox indicated:

1.) it's pretty normal for Hamas to run training exercises before and on Yom Kippur, probably for obvious historical reasons. The exercises were very well identified by Israeli intelligence, along with actionable potential (i.e. what Hamas could throw at Israel in human assets if they wanted to). I don't recall hearing about intelligence on the rocket threat being so large, but sadly it isn't unusual for much-smaller-but-still-large rocket attacks to be launched from Gaza. All they have to do is save up a tithe for a few years while doing normal harassment ops, and ta-da, rocket swarm.

2.) The intentions side of Israeli intelligence evaluated chances for attack-from-training this year, since surprise attacks from putative training exercises aren't totally rare in history (as we all will remember from famous examples), but decided the chances were low to non-existent because Hamas would hurt their recent economic advancement. This was obviously a failure in what philosophers would call a variety of 'the intentional fallacy': what makes sense for Israel and other stable nations who aren't a death-cult masquerading as a government, do not necessarily apply to what such a death-cult would consider reasonable. It's also possible that Hamas played with Israeli expectations of peaceful growth by entering into a slight amount of economic stability, e.g. work-passes being granted out of Gaza into Israel, not only for scouting and preparation purposes, but to spoof Israeli expectations based on their different values.

3.) Attack squads evidently were trained, supplied, and activated, based on ISIL/ISIS experience (possibly even with surviving veterans): absolutely isolated small-cell groups of long-time friends and relatives who trust each other not to be traitors, and only one contact up-command to small-scale managers for the cells. This doesn't allow for complex plans and orders, but they didn't need it, and thus eliminated most tech-based comms while minimizing non-tech comms.

One consequence is that the attacks succeeded so well the cell groups had no real ideas what to do after surviving their own attacks, except to randomly whatever they felt like. Great for spreading destructive chaos, not so great for doing anything more tactically useful than that.

[JasonPratt]

I also heard last night in passing that the first hostage groups are being rescued by Israeli spec-ops, and that American spec-ops are on the way to help soften the mission load by taking responsibility for rescuing American citizens.

Btw, some of my church members were vacationing at En Gedi on the Dead Sea when the attacks went off. And somehow got around, presumably not through, the West Bank areas to Galilee, to be baptized (for no good theological reasons  ) in the Jordan or lake up there, then back again! No obvious danger to them yet, but I don't know that they know enough to be really worried. Their hotel is less than 50 miles east of the Gaza action, certainly close enough to hear rockets striking at Jerusalem this morning. They're also less than five miles from the West Bank zone, and the PLA there has vowed to help fight along with Hamas until the occupiers are kicked out etc. (I haven't heard of any PLA action yet though.) Latest word is that my church's group is trying to cross into Jordan to get a flight out. Probably the best of bad options, under the circumstances.