Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

Good question. Pretty sure targeting an ambassador is still an act of war, though. The intentional targeting is theoretically deniable I suppose.

[JasonPratt]

Slight free-wall for the article. (Give them your email, then hopefully unsubscribe from their alerts asap, who knows who they'll sell your address to.)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/11/10/trump-putin-phone-call-ukraine/

The WaPo reports that Trump called Putin back on Tuesday Nov 5th Thursday Nov 7th, to warn him not to escalate operations against Ukrainian forces, including on Russian territory (apparently), with a reminder that the US (not merely the EU or even NATO) already has sizable military forces in the area.

This could be read several ways, I suppose, ranging from 'take one more step and I bomb the shit out of you', to 'take a breather for a few months and I'll give you the Ukrainian people on a platter'. Estimates, I realize, will differ according to estimates of Trump personally, his prior administration actions and their results, etc.

Edited to add: the Enforcers report that Russian state media has responded by releasing racy pix of Melania. Unclear what local Nork troops think of that development. 

More seriously, I think the WaPo article depends on one anonymous source? If so, then let's not take it overly seriously yet, but one question is how well it synchs with other things that happened between then and now.

Two interesting things that happened: Putin announced that western civilization is not Russia's enemy, and also he knows what Trump's peace plan is, and he supports it. Not sure what to think about either of those yet. (Oh and Estonia's ambassador to Ukraine nearly got droned off the face of her apartment.)

[JasonPratt]

Wall Street Journal adds more information. I don't have the article link, but 'Business Basics' (which I must add likes to do clickbait titles and is a little suss in some other regards) reports a summary of information of diplomatic developments over the weekend.

The material from about 15 minutes onward comes from prior eps for context (and y'know to make the video a more ideal YT size for commercials etc.)

[Crossroads]

I subscribe to both WSJ and WaPo for a "both sides" view in what gives at the other side of the pond.

Here are the gift links to both articles, Jason:

WaPo: Trump talked to Putin, told Russian leader not to escalate in Ukraine (seems they want your email addy though)

WSJ: Trump Promised to End the War in Ukraine. Now He Must Decide How.

[JasonPratt]

I noticed today that Putin denies he has talked to Trump after the election (for whatever that denial is worth).

[UN Weapons Inspector]

I am optimistic and pessimistic at this same time. This is waking up call for Europe. For to long we relied on USA to solve our problems and defend us when things go square .This is it , we are on our own. Fun times to come soon. And pessimism because again the next world war will start in Poland(it  already started in China as before)

[JudgeDredd]

I agree that Europe needs to put it's big boy pants on and deal with issues on their doorstep. If the US can/wants to get involved. Brilliant. But as you say - for too long we've relied on the US to deal with our gremlins.

[Crossroads]

On a positive note, I am seeing sings the zeitenwende is gathering speed, finally. Europe's 155mm shell production for one is ramping up, we are now producing at a rate of 1M shells per annum, and next year, it should be 1,5M shells. F16s were from Europe, Mirage aircraft and long range missiiles are soon shipping from France, Germany has shown polls where support for both rearmament and support for Ukraine is popular.

Russia's build an effective alliance, the Axis of Evil has introduced hot spots now both in Europe and in the Middle East. South China Sea, so far, not yet. If it becomes one, everyone will be quite full stretched. Oh, Korean peninsula, lest we forget. Also, I did not have a Korean proxywar in Europe on my cue cards for 2024.

At least it would seem everyone's waking up to this as a scenario that needs to be considered seriously. Plenty of need for all types of Coalitions of the Willing. Buckle up, western governments   

[JasonPratt]

Will be interesting to see if we go back to being the arsenal of democracy (or equivalents thereof, for 'arsenal' and 'democracy' {wry g}).

I suspect, though of course I can't be sure, that we'll get four more years of more-or-less peace, maybe twelve, depending on a bunch of random, semi-random, and intentional factors. Which doesn't amount to much as a suspicion really.

[Crossroads]

Fingers crossed. Peace Through Strength trumps Fear of Escalation. As a concept, at least. I think.

[JasonPratt]

Arguably better than "Strength Through Joy". 

[Windigo]

On a positive note, I am seeing sings the zeitenwende is gathering speed, finally. Europe's 155mm shell production for one is ramping up, we are now producing at a rate of 1M shells per annum, and next year, it should be 1,5M shells. F16s were from Europe, Mirage aircraft and long range missiiles are soon shipping from France, Germany has shown polls where support for both rearmament and support for Ukraine is popular.

Russia's build an effective alliance, the Axis of Evil has introduced hot spots now both in Europe and in the Middle East. South China Sea, so far, not yet. If it becomes one, everyone will be quite full stretched. Oh, Korean peninsula, lest we forget. Also, I did not have a Korean proxywar in Europe on my cue cards for 2024.

At least it would seem everyone's waking up to this as a scenario that needs to be considered seriously. Plenty of need for all types of Coalitions of the Willing. Buckle up, western governments   

I for one would be seriously interested/concerned if a proxy Korean War broke out in the Ukraine. Totally craziness.

[Crossroads]

I for one would be seriously interested/concerned if a proxy Korean War broke out in the Ukraine. Totally craziness.

Not sure about reliability of this channel. We knew about ammo shipments, but now, allegedly, shipment of SPAs as well.

https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/1857047363388403926

South Korea, what is your move?

Sheesh.

[JasonPratt]

Coming soon for CS: Vietnam II -- Korean proxy war in the Ukraine! A wildly science-fiction hypothetical campaign using gear from the early 70s!     

Not included: robot locusts.

[Crossroads]

Coming soon for CS: Vietnam II -- Korean proxy war in the Ukraine! A wildly science-fiction hypothetical campaign using gear from the early 70s!     

Not included: robot locusts.

Robot locusts    AH-1 Snake platoon data, new graphics and weapons and movement sounds, I can do that.