Russia's War Against Ukraine

[FarAway Sooner]

Even so despite the stubbornness of both sides for whatever reason, talks should be made constantly.  A strategy of diplomacy is not not give up on talking because eventually deals can be made. 

Just wanted to point out that during WW2, the Allies were set on Unconditional Surrender.  I think (without facts to back it up) that this was due to the survival of the Axis regimes being insufferable for the world.

My sense is that it also had a lot to do with the lessons learned from the failure of the Treaty of Versailles.  I could go back and reread the autobiographies of Churchill and Harriman for confirmation, but I'm too lazy.

If there is anywhere in the world a more fantastically beautiful building with as flawed a historical reputation as the Castle of Versailles where the treaty was signed, I don't know what it might be.  I was there 4 weeks ago for the first (and probably only) time in my life, and it was spectacular.

[FarAway Sooner]

If Russia ends up in a Civil War, is there any way that they use nuclear weapons on themselves? 

[Gusington]

Out of 6000 nukes I have been worried that just one gets...unhinged.

[bobarossa]

Out of 6000 nukes I have been worried that just one gets...unhinged.

One is never enough. 
Anyone remember the movie Fail Safe?  Gave me nightmares.

[JasonPratt]

A bag of cats being thrown in the river... 

On WW2, Churchill and the Allied leadership were VERY MUCH committed to unconditional surrender. They were also (in the West, with some lip service by Stalin to get what he wanted) committed to mercy to the Axis people if their leaders surrendered unconditionally.

And talks still went on a regular basis between the Axis powers and the West, at least from 1943 onward when the European Axis powers realized they weren't going to get what they wanted, and instead were going to get pounded back to the stone age if they kept going. But Churchill (and FDR) constantly insisted that no agreements could be made without unconditional surrender, and made sure their commanders in the field understood that, too. So did Stalin, in his own way. And the Western leaders did their best to make sure Stalin knew they weren't trying to get a peace separate from Stalin.

Churchill talks a lot about this in his WW2 memoirs, which I finished reading earlier this year.

[JasonPratt]

Business Basics summarizes some coup news up to 14 hours ago:

One of the more interesting subtle tidbits in the embedded videos from that video, is the claim from the remnants of a Russian company, that "Z" and "storm" units are actually penal squadrons.

[W8taminute]

Even so despite the stubbornness of both sides for whatever reason, talks should be made constantly.  A strategy of diplomacy is not not give up on talking because eventually deals can be made. 

Just wanted to point out that during WW2, the Allies were set on Unconditional Surrender.  I think (without facts to back it up) that this was due to the survival of the Axis regimes being insufferable for the world.

Yes indeed true, however Russia's war against Ukraine is not a world war.  Not yet anyway.  That's why it's so important to talk now before we're all backed into the corner of fighting to the death on a global level.

[SirAndrewD]

Yes indeed true, however Russia's war against Ukraine is not a world war.  Not yet anyway.  That's why it's so important to talk now before we're all backed into the corner of fighting to the death on a global level.

A problem here is one I think you don't understand.

The people in power in Russia do not WANT to negotiate.

No matter what the current battlefield results show, they have zero desire for a peaceful soultion.

They want, need and desire for this to end with a corridor to Moldavia via Odesa, to have territory to the Dniper and to have Ukraine capitulate.

And this is 100% because they have future ambitions.  In the Balkans, in Poland.

This war isn't something to get a small win in and go home.  This is the start point.  The hyper nationalists like Shoigu and Patrushev see this as step one.

Putin was won over by them over time.  He planned for this, committed his nation to this for years.  He implemented a major reformation of the Russian army that he didn't complete for just this very purpose.

So, this idea that they'd bargain or negotiate is absurd.

They want this war, the need it, and they won't believe it's lost until it is staring them in the face.

Believe me, they've had offers.  They refused it.  They want to win and they will possibly do anything to achieve it. 

They've already doomed 300k of their own people on a useless ash heap to get their goals.  Why on earth do you think they'd be reasonable now?

[Sir Slash]

What's absurd is to think the ultra-Nationalists wouldn't negotiate to save their own asses in the face of the people/army rising-up against them. The total failure of Putin's dream of a new Russian Empire has shown the power people behind him that he is not the horse to bet on and now maybe a really good time to jump off the sinking S.S. Putin and lay low for awhile. The dream will remain but it's been demonstrated that Russia simply doesn't have the capability to accomplish it. To save their wealth and privileged positions, the leadership almost has to make a deal. It will only get worse if the army suffers a major defeat. Another one I mean. Just because they SAY they won't talk doesn't mean they won't talk. 

[FarAway Sooner]

If they retreat from Ukraine, do you think THEY will be displaced from within the Russian elite hierarchy while Putin remains on top?  If that faction is fighting for their survival, and Putin is mostly listening to them, we'd have a circular thinking loop there with predictable results.

It's been obvious that, while the Russian media has been free to critique the generals, complaints about Putin or the Ukraine-as-a-province policy have resulted in swift imprisonment or high-altitude defenestration. 

Again, trying to understand exactly what's going on in internal Russian political circles when is incredibly hard.  I'm not disagreeing with Andrew's thesis above, and the "bag of cats across a river in a wet sack" analogy seems spot on.  But even the experts have only imperfect guesses about how the internal power structure in Russian politics will change next.

Whatever happens in Russia, it's bound to surprise us.

[SirAndrewD]

The scariest thing is that there are many in Russia that don't think Putin has gone far enough, and he's getting pressure from them as well.

Please note, Prighozhin's mutiny was absolutely not to end the war.  He wanted to expand it and take it further. 

There isn't much of a peace lobby in Moscow.  Putin's greatest fear is that he will look weak and seem to be close to defeat, not that he'll be overthrown by those close to him that will wish to end the conflict.

[Crossroads]

The scariest thing is that there are many in Russia that don't think Putin has gone far enough, and he's getting pressure from them as well.

Please note, Prighozhin's mutiny was absolutely not to end the war.  He wanted to expand it and take it further. 

There isn't much of a peace lobby in Moscow.  Putin's greatest fear is that he will look weak and seem to be close to defeat, not that he'll be overthrown by those close to him that will wish to end the conflict.

The only viable opposition movement in Russia that I am aware of is the war opposition, who indeed believe Putin is not tough enough.

[SirAndrewD]

Interestingly on the topic, the information I was referring to kind of sideways a few days ago has gotten a little coverage:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/former-us-officials-secret-ukraine-talks-russians-war-ukraine-rcna92610

I'm going to let that article stand and not comment further so I won't get my connection into trouble. 

I will say that this is typically how you have to negotiate with Russians, quietly with atypical routes. 

It's a hard thing for western mindsets and world views to get, but Russians almost never negotiate from a position that they consider weakness.

Remember that this was a country that when Chechen terrorists took a movie theater hostage and made demands, the Russians used chemical weapons on their own hostages and killed a large number of them just to make sure they took out the Chechens too. 

[Gusington]

What is Russia's plan for Poland?

[SirAndrewD]

What is Russia's plan for Poland?

The ultra-nationalists want Poland out of NATO and in the Russian sphere of influence.  Some of the more extreme voices want to reassert claims on the Eastern territories.

The Russian media under direction of the government regularly cook up conspiracy theories about Poland being truly behind the war in Ukraine, and that the Poles are trying to instigate a war.  They generally point fingers and accuse the evil Anglo-Nazi conspiracy using Poland as its puppet and a future launching point for an attack on Russia. 

Essentially the same rhetoric they drummed up about Ukraine prior to the war.

The Polish government feels a conflict with Russia is inevitable, and this has led to a rise in Nationalist movements and their plans to enlarge and modernize their military to the point where they have a goal to have the strongest land army in Europe by 2030. 

The sad thing is that the stronger Polish nationalism becomes, the more that the Russian media postulates that Poland needs to be de-nazified too.