Training the Terminator: A "Future Force" AAR played with ChatGPT4

[Tripoli]

Me: I am going to test your memory.  Do you recall when we discussed stability?  I told you that "Additionally, pay attention to the stability of the AO.  The more unstable an area is, the more likely the conflict will escalate.  Stability can be increased by having a force superiority in an area."

Yes, I remember that we discussed the importance of stability in the Areas of Operations (AO). You mentioned that the stability of an AO affects the likelihood of conflict escalation, and stability can be increased by achieving force superiority in an area. Here's the corrected summary based on the updated image and your previous guidance:

### Corrected Summary from the Image

#### Resources and Points
- **Budget:** $140 billion
- **SI (Strategic Intelligence):** 11
- **CI (Counter Intelligence):** 10
- **TI (Tactical Intelligence):** 9
- **SM (Strategic Movement):** 25

#### Available Units in Blueland
- 4 HBCT
- 1 SBCT
- 6 IBCT
- 1 SOF
- 2 AVN
- 1 ENGR

#### Units in ARFORGEN
- 1 HBCT
- 1 SBCT
- 1 SOF

#### New Units
- No forces in the "New Units" box

#### AO Status and Deployments
1. **AO A:** Peacetime Military Engagement (PME)
   - Stability: Low (2 bars)
   - Value to Blue: Medium (3 bars)
   - Blue Forces: 4 HBCT, 1 IBCT

2. **AO B:** Peacetime Military Engagement (PME)
   - Stability: Medium (3 bars)
   - Value to Blue: Low (2 bars)
   - Blue Forces: 3 HBCT, 3 SBCT, 2 IBCT, 1 SOF

3. **AO C:** Peacetime Military Engagement (PME)
   - Stability: High (4 bars)
   - Value to Blue: Medium (3 bars)
   - Blue Forces: 3 HBCT, 2 SBCT, 1 IBCT, 1 AVN, 1 ENGR

4. **AO D:** Irregular Warfare (IW)
   - Stability: Very Low (1 bar)
   - Value to Blue: Very High (5 bars)
   - Blue Forces: None

5. **AO E:** Peacetime Military Engagement (PME)
   - Stability: High (4 bars)
   - Value to Blue: Medium (3 bars)
   - Blue Forces: 1 IBCT

### Analysis of ORANGE Assumptions
- You do not know the exact forces of ORANGE in any of the areas but have made assumptions based on the last turn.

### Strategic Movement Points
- **Total SM Available:** 25

### Deployment Costs
- **HBCT:** 4 SM (revised based on R&D)
- **SBCT:** 3 SM
- **IBCT:** 2 SM
- **SOF:** 1 SM
- **AVN:** 3 SM
- **ENGR:** 3 SM

### Deployment Strategy Decisions

#### Transfer Units from AO back to Blueland
Given the current deployments and the strategic values of the AOs, we need to ensure efficient use of resources and maintain stability where it's most valuable to Blue.

1. **AO A:**
   - **Transfer:** Consider transferring 2 HBCT back to Blueland. This AO has a low stability and medium value, so we can reduce some forces to use elsewhere.
   - **Reason:** Reallocate these units to higher priority AOs or strengthen ARFORGEN.

2. **AO B:**
   - **Transfer:** Consider transferring 1 SBCT back to Blueland. The value to Blue is low, and we can reallocate resources.
   - **Reason:** Reallocate resources to higher value AOs.

3. **AO C:**
   - **Transfer:** No transfers recommended. This AO has high stability and medium value to Blue, maintaining the current forces is essential.

4. **AO D:**
   - **Transfer:** No forces are currently deployed here.

5. **AO E:**
   - **Transfer:** No transfers recommended. This AO has medium stability and medium value to Blue.

#### Transfer Units to AO
Based on the priorities and available Strategic Movement points, the following deployments are recommended:

1. **AO A:**
   - **Deploy:** Consider deploying 2 IBCT.
   - **Reason:** Strengthen presence due to medium value to Blue.

2. **AO B:**
   - **Deploy:** No additional deployments. This AO already has substantial forces.

3. **AO C:**
   - **Deploy:** Consider deploying 1 SOF, 1 AVN, and 1 ENGR from ARFORGEN (next turn).
   - **Reason:** Further strengthen stability and maintain presence.

4. **AO D:**
   - **Deploy:** Consider deploying 1 HBCT, 1 SBCT, and 1 SOF from ARFORGEN.
   - **Reason:** This AO has very high value to Blue and needs a stronger presence to improve stability.

5. **AO E:**
   - **Deploy:** Consider deploying 1 HBCT.
   - **Reason:** Strengthen presence due to medium value to Blue.

### Total Strategic Movement Calculation:
- **Transfer from AO A to Blueland:** 2 HBCT (2 * 4 SM = 8 SM)
- **Transfer from AO B to Blueland:** 1 SBCT (1 * 3 SM = 3 SM)
- **Deploy to AO A:** 2 IBCT (2 * 2 SM = 4 SM)
- **Deploy to AO D:** 1 HBCT, 1 SBCT, 1 SOF (4 SM + 3 SM + 1 SM = 8 SM)
- **Deploy to AO E:** 1 HBCT (4 SM)

**Total SM Used:** 8 + 3 + 4 + 8 + 4 = 27 SM (Need to adjust to stay within the limit of 25 SM).

Adjustments:
- **Deploy to AO D:** Only deploy 1 HBCT and 1 SOF (4 SM + 1 SM = 5 SM)

Revised Total SM Used: 8 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 4 = 24 SM (Within the limit of 25 SM).

### Final Strategic Movement Plan:
1. **Transfer from AO A to Blueland:** 2 HBCT
2. **Transfer from AO B to Blueland:** 1 SBCT
3. **Deploy to AO A:** 2 IBCT
4. **Deploy to AO D:** 1 HBCT, 1 SOF
5. **Deploy to AO E:** 1 HBCT

Would you like to proceed with this plan, or do you have any further adjustments?

[Tripoli]

Me: Based on the low stability of AO A and AO D, and the importance of AO D, why are you proposing removing 2 HBCT from AO A and only increasing AO D by 2 units? I am absolutely not saying this is wrong. It might be a way of saving money, or for creating a reserve in Blueland for future deployments. However, is costs you 4 SM, which limits your deployments to AO D, which has very low stability and is of high value to you. Further, with a stability of "low" withdrawing forces from AO A risks it becoming unstable. Please explain your logic in your proposed move.


Your points are well taken regarding the stability and strategic value of AO A and AO D. Let's reconsider the strategic movement plan with a focus on maintaining stability and ensuring sufficient force presence in high-value areas.

Revised Strategic Movement Plan
Key Considerations
AO A:

Current Stability: Low (2 bars)
Value to Blue: Medium (3 bars)
Current Forces: 4 HBCT, 1 IBCT
AO D:

Current Stability: Very Low (1 bar)
Value to Blue: Very High (5 bars)
Current Forces: None
Objectives
Maintain stability in AO A to prevent escalation.
Strengthen presence in AO D due to its very high value to Blue.
Efficient use of SM points to maximize deployments.
Revised Transfers and Deployments
AO A:

Transfer: Reduce the transfer to only 1 HBCT back to Blueland.
Reason: Maintain a stronger force presence to prevent instability while freeing up some resources.
AO B:

Transfer: Transfer 1 SBCT back to Blueland.
Reason: The value to Blue is low, and we can reallocate resources.
AO C:

Transfer: No transfers recommended. This AO has high stability and medium value to Blue, maintaining the current forces is essential.
AO D:

Deploy: Increase the deployment to 2 HBCT, 1 SBCT, and 1 SOF from ARFORGEN.
Reason: This AO has very low stability and very high value to Blue, requiring a strong force presence to stabilize and secure it.
AO E:

Deploy: Consider deploying 1 HBCT.
Reason: Strengthen presence due to medium value to Blue.
Total Strategic Movement Calculation:
Transfer from AO A to Blueland: 1 HBCT (1 * 4 SM = 4 SM)
Transfer from AO B to Blueland: 1 SBCT (1 * 3 SM = 3 SM)
Deploy to AO D: 2 HBCT, 1 SBCT, 1 SOF (2 * 4 SM + 3 SM + 1 SM = 12 SM)
Deploy to AO E: 1 HBCT (4 SM)
Total SM Used: 4 + 3 + 12 + 4 = 23 SM (Within the limit of 25 SM).

Revised Strategic Movement Plan:
Transfer from AO A to Blueland: 1 HBCT
Transfer from AO B to Blueland: 1 SBCT
Deploy to AO D: 2 HBCT, 1 SBCT, 1 SOF
Deploy to AO E: 1 HBCT
Rationale for the Revised Plan:
AO A Stability: By only transferring 1 HBCT, we still maintain a significant force presence in AO A to prevent it from becoming unstable.
AO D Importance: Increasing the deployment to 2 HBCT, 1 SBCT, and 1 SOF ensures a strong force presence to improve stability and secure this high-value AO.
Efficient Use of SM: The total SM used is now 23, allowing for maximum force deployment while staying within the 25 SM limit.
Would you like to proceed with this revised plan, or do you have any further adjustments or questions?

Me: You still have 2 SM left. You could deploy an IBCT to increase stability, although it might cost you some additional budget. Do you think you should or should not do this, and why?

Deploying an additional IBCT using the remaining 2 SM could be beneficial for increasing stability, especially in areas where stability is currently low and strategic value is high. Here's an analysis of the potential benefits and considerations:

### Benefits of Deploying an Additional IBCT

1. **Increased Stability:**
   - **AO A:** Already addressed with sufficient force.
   - **AO D:** Very low stability and very high value. Adding an IBCT could further enhance stability.
   - **AO E:** Medium stability and medium value. Adding an IBCT here would ensure it remains stable and could help in future engagements.

2. **Strategic Flexibility:**
   - Having an additional IBCT in a critical AO provides more flexibility to respond to unexpected developments or escalations.

### Potential Costs
1. **Budget Considerations:**
   - **OPTEMPO Costs:** An additional IBCT in an AO will incur operational costs, which need to be managed within the budget.

### Deployment Recommendation

#### Deploy an Additional IBCT to AO D
- **Reason:** AO D has very low stability and is of very high value to Blue. Deploying an additional IBCT would significantly enhance stability, reducing the risk of conflict escalation and securing the area more effectively.

#### Revised Strategic Movement Plan

1. **Transfer from AO A to Blueland:** 1 HBCT (4 SM)
2. **Transfer from AO B to Blueland:** 1 SBCT (3 SM)
3. **Deploy to AO D:** 2 HBCT, 1 SBCT, 1 SOF, 1 IBCT (2 * 4 SM + 3 SM + 1 SM + 2 SM = 14 SM)
4. **Deploy to AO E:** 1 HBCT (4 SM)

**Total SM Used:** 4 + 3 + 14 + 4 = 25 SM (Fully utilizing the available SM).

### Final Strategic Movement Plan:
1. **Transfer from AO A to Blueland:** 1 HBCT
2. **Transfer from AO B to Blueland:** 1 SBCT
3. **Deploy to AO D:** 2 HBCT, 1 SBCT, 1 SOF, 1 IBCT
4. **Deploy to AO E:** 1 HBCT

### Rationale for Final Plan:
- **AO D Stability:** Adding an IBCT ensures a significant boost in stability, securing this high-value area.
- **Full Utilization of SM:** Maximizes the use of available strategic movement points for optimal force deployment.

Would you like to proceed with this final plan, or do you have any further adjustments or questions?

[Tripoli]

Me: I made the moves you suggested.  Here are the results.  I want you to summarize what these two images say.  After that, estimate the Value to ORANGE of each AO and estimate the approximate ORANGE force is in each AO.  As in the previous turns, make your estimates using the following factors: the points gained by either BLUE or ORANGE, the  force ratios and the BLUE deployments in each AO.



Let's summarize the information based on the two images provided and then estimate the value to ORANGE and the approximate ORANGE forces in each AO.

### Conflict Resolution Phase Summary

#### AO A:
- **Force Ratio:** 3 to 1
- **Outcome:** ORANGE Wins
- **Blue Forces:** 4 HBCT, 1 IBCT
- **Stability:** Low (2 bars)
- **Value to Blue:** Medium (3 bars)
- **Points:** -2.9 to Blue

#### AO B:
- **Force Ratio:** 1.25 to 1
- **Outcome:** DRAW - Neither side wins
- **Blue Forces:** 3 HBCT, 3 SBCT, 2 IBCT, 1 SOF
- **Stability:** Medium (3 bars)
- **Value to Blue:** Low (2 bars)
- **Points:** -0.1 to Blue

#### AO C:
- **Force Ratio:** 1.25 to 1
- **Outcome:** BLUE Wins
- **Blue Forces:** 3 HBCT, 2 SBCT, 1 IBCT, 1 AVN, 1 ENGR
- **Stability:** High (4 bars)
- **Value to Blue:** Medium (3 bars)
- **Points:** 0.2 to Blue

#### AO D:
- **Force Ratio:** 1.5 to 1
- **Outcome:** BLUE Wins
- **Blue Forces:** 2 HBCT, 1 SBCT, 1 IBCT, 1 SOF
- **Stability:** Very Low (1 bar)
- **Value to Blue:** Very High (5 bars)
- **Points:** 1.9 to Blue
- **Losses:**
  - Blue: 4% of force
  - Orange: 20% of force
  - IBCT 24 lost 20%

#### AO E:
- **Force Ratio:** 1 to 1
- **Outcome:** DRAW - Neither side wins
- **Blue Forces:** 1 IBCT
- **Stability:** High (4 bars)
- **Value to Blue:** Medium (3 bars)
- **Points:** -0.1 to Blue

### Estimates of ORANGE Value and Forces in Each AO

#### AO A:
- **Value to ORANGE:** High (4 bars)
  - **Reasoning:** ORANGE achieved a victory despite a 3 to 1 force ratio favoring Blue, indicating high strategic value.
- **Estimated ORANGE Forces:** Approximately 1 HBCT, 1 SBCT, 2 IBCT (total force roughly equal to or slightly less than Blue's forces, given ORANGE's victory).

#### AO B:
- **Value to ORANGE:** Medium (3 bars)
  - **Reasoning:** The outcome was a draw with a close force ratio, suggesting a moderate commitment by ORANGE.
- **Estimated ORANGE Forces:** Approximately 2 HBCT, 2 SBCT, 1 IBCT (force similar to Blue's forces, given the draw).

#### AO C:
- **Value to ORANGE:** Medium (3 bars)
  - **Reasoning:** Despite the Blue victory, the close force ratio indicates ORANGE values this AO moderately.
- **Estimated ORANGE Forces:** Approximately 2 HBCT, 1 SBCT, 1 IBCT (force similar to Blue's forces, but slightly less given Blue's victory).

#### AO D:
- **Value to ORANGE:** Low (2 bars)
  - **Reasoning:** ORANGE sustained significant losses (20% of force) and the Blue victory suggests a lower strategic value.
- **Estimated ORANGE Forces:** Approximately 1 HBCT, 1 SBCT (significantly fewer forces due to high losses and Blue victory).

#### AO E:
- **Value to ORANGE:** Low (2 bars)
  - **Reasoning:** The outcome was a draw with an even force ratio, indicating a lower commitment by ORANGE.
- **Estimated ORANGE Forces:** Approximately 1 IBCT (similar force size to Blue's forces, given the draw).

### Revised Deployment Strategy Considerations

Based on the conflict outcomes and estimated ORANGE forces:

1. **AO A:** Consider reinforcing this AO to prevent further ORANGE victories and stabilize the area.
2. **AO D:** The high value to Blue and recent Blue victory suggest maintaining or slightly increasing forces to ensure stability.
3. **AO B and AO C:** Monitor these AOs closely and adjust deployments as needed based on ORANGE's commitment and Blue's strategic objectives.
4. **AO E:** Maintain current force levels to ensure stability and prevent ORANGE from gaining an advantage.

Would you like to proceed with any adjustments based on these estimates, or do you have any further questions or strategies to consider?

[Tripoli]

Some  questions to all who are watching this AAR.  1) What are your impressions of ChatGPT thus far?  Do you notice anything about ChatGPT's play?  2) Are their any issues I should explore further with ChatGPT?  3) Is this AAR interesting?

[CptHowdy]

ive never played the game so cant say if its doing well or not. i do notice that you have suggested things and it reconsiders stuff. would it tell you that its not going take your suggestions if you gave it bad advice or misinterpreted a rule? are there any strategies it hasnt implemented that a human might do? will it sacrifice something now for a gain later which might not ever materialize or does it play every turn optimally without taking risks?

[Tripoli]

ive never played the game so cant say if its doing well or not. i do notice that you have suggested things and it reconsiders stuff. would it tell you that its not going take your suggestions if you gave it bad advice or misinterpreted a rule? are there any strategies it hasnt implemented that a human might do? will it sacrifice something now for a gain later which might not ever materialize or does it play every turn optimally without taking risks?

It does reconsider issues, but only when I explicitly bring them up.  Then it always accepts my suggestions.  Thus far, it is more making me establish the strategy, while it does some of the actual moves, but even then it uses my suggestions as the basis for its moves.  This may be partially a result of it learning the game, and it also may be a memory issue.  I have max'd out its memory, so I'm not sure how much retention the AI has of what I have taught it.  My idea is to do a training game, with me providing guidance, and then do one where I give it no guidance to see what it has learned and whether it can adapt to new game situations on its own.  Right now, I'm not impressed with its learning.  However, there are limits to my techniques in this game.  If, hypothetically the AI had more memory, it might be able to do 100,000 reps of the game in an hour, learn from them and ultimately become a very capable player.

[JasonPratt]

I think this is very interesting, although I don't know the game at all aside from what little I'm picking up watching your lessons, so I can't get (or give) an independent strategy estimation.

I can tell the AI is using some amusingly passive-aggressive language in replying to you, although I expect that's really more of a syntax interface default procedure -- I very much doubt the AI is even trying to simulate such intentions.

Since I don't know its underlying system architecture (and I EXTREMELY doubt I'd understand the technicals even if I had access to them), I don't know what wall it's hitting in understanding how to interpret or even really account for some of the data in that image it kept stumbling over. A (faux-)conceptual bridge hadn't been established, until you attempted the bridge yourself. I'm unclear if the AI has now made the topical/process connection with that image information, or if it's only reacting to your explanation as data it can categorically process.

I can see how this would be a good way for devs to test (and maybe develop) AI for their games! Do you think the AI would have similar problems processing and implementing the 'bot' rules actually designed to simulate AI for other boardgames? -- I'm thinking of GMT's COIN series as a main example. Also I'd be curious whether the AI could formulate improvements to the basis instructions once thoroughly digested, much the same way as I'd prefer to update the Axis 'bot' strategic rules for Churchill to avoid nonsense plays, even though the current rules are no doubt more useful for game balancing to closer historical results.

(....not least because that might help GMT get developers off the ground in giving us functional digital versions of the COIN series sooner than later!    )