Leaked Memo - War with China by 2025

Started by Jarhead0331, January 31, 2023, 02:55:16 PM

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Jarhead0331

Is the free world ready? Or, is this guy just a real world General Ripper?

Grogheads Uber Alles
Semper Grog
"No beast is more alpha than JH." Gusington, 10/23/18


Sir Slash

I don't know. We should prepare for war with China, but just not brag about it to the whole world I think.
"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.

GDS_Starfury

and what do you think has been going on for the last decade?
russias bullshit has just put things into sharper focus for a wider audience.
Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


Sir Slash

As almost always, I have no idea what you are talking about. What's been going on for a decade, preparing for war with China or bragging about it? If we have been preparing for a full-on hot war with China, there's a lot of very smart people who don't think we are ready for it. So how long does it take to get ready in your eyes or are we ready right now?
"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.

GDS_Starfury

a strategic pivot from Europe to the Pacific has been going on since Obama. I don't know how you missed it for a little over a decade.  I also think we're a lot more prepared then the Chinese are at the moment.
Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


Sir Slash

Oh, so Obama fixed this 10 years ago. I would refer you to the post our very own Tripoli gave us Jan. 14th on the China Invades Taiwan thread where the CSIS wargamed numerous possible scenarios involving a Chinese invasion of the island and an American response. The results were that in all but 3 scenarios, the U.S. would defeat an invasion of Taiwan but the cost would be, "staggering losses" for both sides actually. In every case American Nuclear Aircraft Carriers would not survive the conflict unless they were able run fast enough to get out of Chinese ballistic missile range in time. Does this sound like being prepared to you? Air losses would also be heavy as well as Nuclear Submarines, 20% or more, well above what the U.S. could replace during the fight. How did YOU miss this? And this was for a 2026 time frame and the numbers will only get worse toward 2030 or later. This sounds like being prepared, but only prepared to lose.

Clearly much more needs to be done by us and Taiwan to deter any aggression by Ping   and soon.
"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.

GDS_Starfury

#6
I never said fixed so don't try your game of putting words in peoples mouths.
I said the process started then.  Im also well aware of the long history of various groups, think tanks and
lobbyists producing the material they want, when they want that fits whatever narrative and spending bill.
And no slash, I didnt miss the wargame article.  Pretty sure I even posted in the thread.
What I find sad is that you seem to not be able to do your own research on these topics and instead rely
on whatever is fed to you here and on a select few tv stations.  You have the time, maybe you should read
more about the subject matter.
Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


Sir Slash

So in your much more informed and obviously unbiased mind, when will we be prepared for this conflict, being that Obama began the, 'pivot' to the Pacific 10 years ago? Exactly how long do your many sources that YOU are intelligent enough to access and I am not, will it take for America and Taiwan to defeat this invasion, a week, a month, 6 months? For someone so informed, I don't recall you giving us this info. And how many lives will it cost, ships, planes and submarines? Please tell me what your many sources say. Because I know you love talking about killing Russians, but I've not heard anything from you regarding killing Chinese.  :huh:

Oh, and your usual sending of vile, hate-filled PM's doesn't help see the logic of your arguments. And sure as hell don't intimidate me. Have a nice night.
"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.

GDS_Starfury

#8
LOL @ hate filled.
I'll answer you question like this.  I've taken the time to read articles about topics such as this forever. 
Sources can range from things like Proceedings to newspaper articles to internet bs.  I don't think you
actually have much of an interest in it unless is crosses whatever crisis news feed your watching that day.
If tucker ain't offended, you don't know and you don't care.  That's your choice.  Good for you.
Currently I think that china would be biting off way more then it can chew making a play for Taiwan.
First we wouldn't be going at it alone as I think that the Ukraine has reminded Asia that the small guy can
win and that coalition building and interdependence goes a long way.  There would be no surprise assault on
Taiwan, the build up and chatter would be seen for weeks ahead of time.  That lets the US, whos been
aggressively exercising with just about every country in theater, do what its shown to do best.  Build
teams quickly and meet the threat.  Did you know we're just about to close deals on being back in the
Philippines?  Can you understand what that does to basing options for allied forces?
As for those allies, china would be looking at the US, Taiwan, Japan, Australia and very possibly Vietnam, Malaysia,
South Korea the Philippines and maybe India.  Thats a lot of real world shit to want to chew
through.  And no, it wouldn't be for altruistic bs and freedom.  The worlds economy can't put up with the inconvenience. 
It's the tech version of the first Gulf War.  The hit that china's economy would take by itself isn't worth the risk.  The
internal political hit doubly so.
I'll get into what I think the exchange rates of equipment would be later.  Safe to say I think the plaf loses a lot more then
we do.
Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


MengJiao

#9
Quote from: Sir Slash on February 01, 2023, 11:35:47 PMSo in your much more informed and obviously unbiased mind, when will we be prepared for this conflict, being that Obama began the, 'pivot' to the Pacific 10 years ago? Exactly how long do your many sources that YOU are intelligent enough to access and I am not, will it take for America and Taiwan to defeat this invasion, a week, a month, 6 months? For someone so informed, I don't recall you giving us this info. And how many lives will it cost, ships, planes and submarines? Please tell me what your many sources say. Because I know you love talking about killing Russians, but I've not heard anything from you regarding killing Chinese.  :huh:

Oh, and your usual sending of vile, hate-filled PM's doesn't help see the logic of your arguments. And sure as hell don't intimidate me. Have a nice night.

The US is getting more access to bases and working with forces in the Philippines.  I'm not sure how excited anyone is about killing Chinese, but if China tries to take Taiwan by force, a lot of Chinese will get killed on both sides so maybe it's not such a good idea for China to try to take Taiwan by force from the point of view of not killing large numbers of Chinese in Taiwan or elsewhere.

And on the bases in the Philippines (according to Bloomberg):
"It is a really big deal," US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said Thursday at a news conference alongside Philippine Defense Secretary Carlito Galvez. "This is an opportunity to increase our effectiveness and interoperability. It is not about permanent basing."

Also, I read the notorious memo from Air Mobility Command.  It's nice that other arms of the armed services are worried about China.  It seems like people thought the whole problem of containing China was a US Navy Problem.  Clearly the Navy can only do so much and a big war in Asia is likely to be a problem too big for the Navy to handle on its own.

JasonPratt

Considering the regime and its history, I get the impression that mainland China might not be able to care less about how many Chinese they have to kill to get what they want.

Still, they're worrying about replacement population right now, so maybe that wil..... wait, I just remembered they've been welding people into skyscrapers for the sake of national survival in the past year. Never mind, carry on.  :buck2:
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MengJiao

Quote from: JasonPratt on February 02, 2023, 08:26:53 AMConsidering the regime and its history, I get the impression that mainland China might not be able to care less about how many Chinese they have to kill to get what they want.

Still, they're worrying about replacement population right now, so maybe that wil..... wait, I just remembered they've been welding people into skyscrapers for the sake of national survival in the past year. Never mind, carry on.  :buck2:

  I don't know what's up with China.  On the other hand, as the Russians seem to be discovering, maybe, not caring how many people you kill is not always a formula for quick victory.

  One thing worth considering when one tries to picture what a Chinese attack on Chinese Taiwan would look like is, no matter how you cut it, attacking Taiwan is a lot more difficult than trying to drive all over Ukraine in a few weeks or months or years or decades.  It's an amphibious assault without air superiority versus an island that is likely to be defended by the world's most powerful air force and navy.  On the face of it, maybe not an enterprise with much chance of success -- though with lots of modern weapons ready to go on all sides of the prospective battle area -- there's a significant chance that lots of expensive stuff will get blown up.

W8taminute

I watched most of the video but I'm not sure what to think about it.  It seems to me all the video is about is some general trying to motivate his troops by using exciting language. 

Now if you are asking will there be a war between the USA and China, then that's a different story.
"You and I are of a kind. In a different reality, I could have called you friend."

Romulan Commander to Kirk

Jarhead0331

Quote from: W8taminute on February 02, 2023, 10:57:22 AMI watched most of the video but I'm not sure what to think about it.  It seems to me all the video is about is some general trying to motivate his troops by using exciting language. 

Now if you are asking will there be a war between the USA and China, then that's a different story.

Boy did the point fly over your head.  :ROFL:

It's about a general using extremely careless language and directing subordinates to take certain actions based upon assumptions that do not necessarily constitute official US policy. 
Grogheads Uber Alles
Semper Grog
"No beast is more alpha than JH." Gusington, 10/23/18


Sir Slash

Star believes all of Asia will jump into a war with China. I'm not so sure, all of them being within range of Ping's Ballistic Missile force would cause most to sit on the sidelines, at least to see who's going to come-out on top. No this war would be fought by the U.S. and Taiwan. One country a hundred miles away, the other what 7,000? From a nuclear armed nation full of billions of people. That sounds like we could handle that in a slow weekend.  :Party:

On the other hand, the Chi Comms could easily let Little Kim off his leash and then Japan and S. Korea would have to get involved. That's another 35,000 American troops as well as South Korea to protect. Starting to get big isn't it? Maybe out-of-control?

Star's right I believe about the Chi Comms build-up before the invasion giving us some warning ahead of time, the economic disruption to BOTH nations would be catastrophic, and in addition, China hasn't been in a large war since, Korea? So their troops really have zero combat experience. Of course so do Taiwan's, at least some of our troops have been shot at recently.

But this won't be an Army war. It will be fought by the Navy and Air Force who have  not since WWII been in a conflict where large numbers of their ships and planes are  being destroyed. How that will effect the commanders, as well as the politicians back in Washington, is impossible, even for someone as well read as Starfury, to be able to tell for certain.

China can take Taiwan any time they want, but at what price is the question? If Ping thinks it will/might be too high, he'll back-off. We should do everything in our power to place that doubt in his mind, with whatever Taiwan needs to make that happen. Have we done that already? I doubt it or else the Chinese would not be so aggressive and announcing their plans for reunification by force. Apparently Mr. Ping hasn't gotten the message from Star that he can't possibly win.

Please Star, go to Beijing and tell him yourself so he'll know for certain. That's one ticket I'd be happy to chip-in on.  :grin:
"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.