About 8,000 US troops are deploying to secure evacuations from Kabul

[Jarhead0331]

The new video and still shot of the US plane taking off from Kabul airport as 100s of Afghans run after it is heartbreaking. That said, as much as it sucks, I don't think there is anything else we could do there, after 20 years. Maybe our exit could have been handled differently, I don't know...but we can't and should not stay there forever.

I don't think anyone disagrees with this point. In fact, many will say we never should have been there in the first place. Once Al Qaeda and Bin Laden fled into Pakistan, some could argue the mission changed and there was no need to remain in Afghanistan...certainly, it could be argued, there was no basis to change the mission to one of nation building.

It is unclear to me how we could not have been aware that the Afghan National Army would collapse with such rapidity. Our leadership on the ground over there who were responsible for assessing this were either (i) incompetent; (ii) untruthful to the suits; or (iii) gave an honest assessment and the suits did not care. Either way, it is a major foreign policy disaster that will have far reaching repercussions for decades into the future. Just think about all the US military technology that is now in the hands of the Taliban. 

Meanwhile, the human aspect of the situation over there is heartbreaking, and it is insulting to hear anyone suggest that "we don't care" about what happens there or to the people who we have left behind. 

In any event, the pull-out was handled incompetently, there is no way around that. I'd like to think there will be lessons learned, about not only the withdrawal, but our COIN strategy and overall operational experience there...but I'm sure this situation will be repeated elsewhere for a host of reasons.   

[Sir Slash]

Now it's China's turn. My prediction is they'll do it right. They will co-opt the Taliban by sending them lots of aid, they care nothing for the rights of the people or women & children. China will grab all the Strategic Materials for themselves, help distribute the Opium crop to further destabilize the West, build a link to the Paks to surround India, their common enemy, and set themselves up as THE Global Policemen/Only true World Power. And use this as a warning to Taiwan and the rest of Asia that there's a new Khan in town, don't piss us off. And demonstrate to the world America's impending twilight as a Great Power.

Unless I'm wrong, no Empire in history has successfully controlled Afghanistan....except for the Mongols. 

[steve58]

A couple takeways from an interview with Roya Rahmani, the former Afghan ambassador to US:

...

She said 70% of Afghanistan's population is under 30, meaning that most people spent the majority of their lives with U.S. occupation and don't know what life is like without it.

...
Rahmani feels Afghanistan is heading toward "very bloody civil war that will be very difficult to end. God knows how long it will continue for."

https://www.foxnews.com/world/afghan-ambassador-roya-rahmani-veterans-devastated-taliban-insurgency

[Dammit Carl!]

It is unclear to me how we could not have been aware that the Afghan National Army would collapse with such rapidity. Our leadership on the ground over there who were responsible for assessing this were either (i) incompetent; (ii) untruthful to the suits; or (iii) gave an honest assessment and the suits did not care. Either way, it is a major foreign policy disaster that will have far reaching repercussions for decades into the future. Just think about all the US military technology that is now in the hands of the Taliban. 

Amen.

Think it'll be a cold day in hell before anyone joins any kind of coalition we put together anymore outside of WW3, and even then, they'll be a lot of hesitation to do so.

[Gusington]

"Either way, it is a major foreign policy disaster that will have far reaching repercussions for decades into the future."

Definitely.

[solops]

I understand that the White House was appalled at the videos and pictures of Afghans fleeing Kabul and crowding the evacuation runways because none of them were wearing masks.

[Jarhead0331]

I understand that the White House was appalled at the videos and pictures of Afghans fleeing Kabul and crowding the evacuation runways because none of them were wearing masks.

Yes. I saw this joke too and laughed, even though there is nothing laughable regarding this situation, but please. This is not the place for it.

Keep the discussion focused and away from political jabs.

[solops]

I understand that the White House was appalled at the videos and pictures of Afghans fleeing Kabul and crowding the evacuation runways because none of them were wearing masks.

Yes. I saw this joke too and laughed, even though there is nothing laughable regarding this situation, but please. This is not the place for it.

Keep the discussion focused and away from political jabs.

It's either graveyard humor or tears. I had not seen it elsewhere. And I increasingly believe wrecking the big infrastructure projects we built on the way out is the best way to go, unless we plan on going back. There is no sense in handing those big landing strips over to the Chinese. Slowing them down and costing them resources is what I'd do.

[Jarhead0331]

It's either graveyard humor or tears. I had not seen it elsewhere. And I increasingly believe wrecking the big infrastructure projects we built on the way out is the best way to go, unless we plan on going back. There is no sense in handing those big landing strips over to the Chinese. Slowing them down and costing them resources is what I'd do.

Personally, I thought the one about the White House welcoming the Taliban into the embassy because they WERE wearing masks, was a bit more funny...because, they actually are wearing masks, so to speak.

As far as slash and burn and wreaking infrastructure, you know that isn't going to happen. Even if there was an intention to do so, it is already too late. In any event, you think China is really going to gain a foothold there? I don't see China having much interest in Afghanistan beyond the fact that the country could create some instability for China's BRI and is wedged in the way of China's efforts to build roads into more lucrative markets to the west/southwest. Otherwise, I don't see China engaging in any long term occupation or engaging in any activity there, at least in the near term, that would represent any substantial credible strategic threat to the US.

[solops]

I cannot see China moving into Afghanistan as in making it a client state. They have plenty of Muslim minorities they are oppressing already. The last thing they want is the Taliban spreading East. I do think they would prop up the Taliban in return for black ops cooperation and for basing rights. I doubt if they want or need more than that. They certainly would not need large troop formations there. Big airfields in Afghanistan would be of value to China in support of operations and influence spreading throughout the Middle East as well as Africa. Their ability to project directly into those areas now is poor. Afghani airbases would be valuable. Even more interesting is the benefit to China of bases there in their ongoing rivalry with India. Their claims in the Punjab area may become more strident in an effort to get a land route to Afghanistan, however tenuous. The political fallout with India and Pakistan, bitter rivals and nuclear powers, is fascinating. No, I think the whole China-Afghanistan combo is an unknowable powder-keg. This has potential for them vis-a-vis India, Pakistan, Russia and Iran. The Chinese are willing to play the long game. I can see them trolling there for a lot of reasons. And nice, big empty U.S. built airbases can be nothing but good for them, even if they never use them. Everyone else has to honor the threat. And as far as the Taliban goes, China knows they can be bought.

Edit: Credit where due - The Russians left a lot of stuff too, especially at Bagram.

[Lowenstaat]

Here's an interesting take on the strategy, tactics, and service attrition of US Army, US Navy, and USAF CAS during the past 20 years in Afghanistan. I found their discussion interesting and helpful and thought some of you might, too.

'Daniel Flores, T.R., "Wombat" Matson, and Gonky join [C.W. Lemoine] to discuss the fall of Afghanistan and the effects of fighting there for two decades on our air power.'

[GDS_Starfury]

Meanwhile, the human aspect of the situation over there is heartbreaking, and it is insulting to hear anyone suggest that "we don't care" about what happens there or to the people who we have left behind. 

its rather difficult to care about people that dont care about themselves.  on a certain level of empathy it sucks but ultimately the vast majority of people here in the US have more pressing things to worry about.

Think it'll be a cold day in hell before anyone joins any kind of coalition we put together anymore outside of WW3, and even then, they'll be a lot of hesitation to do so.

do you mean the NATO allies that left a few years ago?  Im really not worried to much about the US putting together coatlitions when faced with a clear and present danger or need.

It is unclear to me how we could not have been aware that the Afghan National Army would collapse with such rapidity

I used to see it all the time when bartending in college.  mouthy brat is all big and tough with his much bigger friends around.  and then they go home and the mouthy brat says the wrong thing to the wrong person and usually runs away.  this is the nation state version.

[Silent Disapproval Robot]

I've been seeing some reports saying that as many as 40,000 US civilians are still in Afghanistan and can't reach the airport as well as upwards of 50,000 Afghanis comprised of those who aided the coalition and their family members.  This is starting to bear and chilling resemblance to the British retreat from Kabul in 1842 with Biden in the role of Elphinstone.

[GDS_Starfury]

links to that?

[Lowenstaat]

"Defense officials say they'll save 5,000 a day from Kabul but 'up to 40,000' Americans remain stranded: Taliban fighters close in on airport after taking ALL access points which forces US troops to negotiate with them on who gets in"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9901361/Up-40-000-Americans-stranded-Afghanistan.html
"Bush's Asst. Secretary of State Robert Charles said between 15,000 and 40,000 Americans are stranded.
John Kirby, the Pentagon's spokesman, said on CNN that between 5,000 and 10,000 US citizens are in Kabul alone but Charles said thousands more are further afield in Herat, Kandahar and Jalalabad."

40,000 Americans still stranded in Afghanistan seems like a surprisingly high number to me. I certainly hope the actual number is smaller.